This Cubs-Twins trade for Joe Ryan is the big swing Jed Hoyer has to take

Just a couple of weeks ago, it looked as if Joe Ryan was going to be removed from the trade block entirely after he left a start just nine pitches deep with right elbow soreness. As scary as that moment was, Ryan wound up coming out of it fine and has not skipped a beat since.

The right-hander just twirled six strong innings against the Houston Astros, allowing one run on four hits and striking out nine batters without issuing a walk. Ryan has now gone six innings and allowed one run each of the three times he's taken the mound since the injury scare, and he has a 3.02 ERA in 11 starts for the Minnesota Twins this season. He looks like a needle-mover if the Twins decide to trade him, and he looks like the dream fit for the Chicago Cubs in particular.

Why the Cubs are the perfect Joe Ryan suitor

Ryan, a legitimate ace, would fit on any team, but the Cubs might be as desperate as any contender for starting pitching. Cade Horton is out for the season and both Matthew Boyd and Justin Steele are sidelined for who knows how long. The Cubs have some solid starters even despite the injuries like Edward Cabrera, Shota Imanaga and the resurgent Ben Brown, but it's clear they could use another arm, and a good one at that.

Despite a pair of 10-game winning streaks this season, Chicago’s loss on Tuesday night dropped them into a tie for second place in the NL Central. They're a good team, but the Cubs going on a World Series run or even winning the NL Central would be hard to pull off without Jed Hoyer making a big trade.

Ryan could not only help push the Cubs to World Series contention this season, but he's under contract through 2027, meaning they'd get him for two postseason runs. That adds a ton of value, but also means Hoyer would have to part with a lot to fend off the competition and convince the Twins to accept the deal. Here's what a package might look like.

This Cubs-Twins trade nets Chicago the ace it desperately needs

If agreed to, this would be one of if not the biggest blockbuster pulled off at this year’s deadline. The Cubs would be receiving the player they believe would put them over the top — the 2026 version of Aroldis Chapman, if you will — and part with three exciting players to do so.

Matt Shaw would be the centerpiece of the deal. A player once considered a Cubs cornerstone is now more of an afterthought after the team elected to sign Alex Bregman and extend Nico Hoerner. While Shaw doesn't have much value in Chicago right now, he'd instantly become the Twins' third baseman of the future.

And it doesn't stop there. Jaxon Wiggins is the Cubs' top pitching prospect, is a top 60 prospect on FanSided's top 100 list and is already in Triple-A, so a call-up isn't too far away. Jonathon Long is a forgotten prospect, and he's off to a bit of a slow start to this season, but he had a huge year in Triple-A for the Cubs last year and is a worthy flier for the Twins to take at first base.

Would the Cubs make this trade?

It's always hard to predict what Hoyer will do in these spots because he's known for being more passive as an executive, but he's become more aggressive in recent months. Not only did the Cubs sign Bregman to one of the richest contracts in franchise history, but they traded a top prospect, Owen Caissie, to acquire Edward Cabrera. That trade could mean Hoyer wouldn't trade another top prospect like Wiggins, but why not go all-in? After all, is Ryan not the pitcher the Cubs would hope Wiggins would develop into?

I think this is a deal the Cubs should make. They have a high-end offense when it's clicking, and they're arguably the best defensive team in the sport. The pitching is what needs help, and with some Tarik Skubal uncertainty to keep in mind, there's a chance Ryan is the best starter available at the deadline.

Will they make it? I'd like to think so. It's a lot to give up, but Shaw has already lost a starting job without an injury (and he's struggled mightily in this utility role), and he's been discussed in trade rumors already. Wiggins is no sure thing, and Long is blocked at first base in 2026 and beyond. If they want to beat a team like the Dodgers in the postseason, this is the kind of deal they should be making.

Verdict: Cubs reluctantly accept

Would the Twins make this trade?

While I think the Cubs should be all-in on this deal, I'm less certain that the Twins would accept. It's hard to overlook the fact that while they traded literally half of their team at the 2025 trade deadline, Ryan stayed put. The Twins elected to hold onto him in the offseason as well. Now, do I think this was smart? No, not really. The Twins are not any good and could have sold Ryan for even more had they traded him last year than they'd get for him now or anytime before he hits the open market after 2027. I am not them, though.

Is this deal enough for Minnesota to part with Ryan? I'm not so sure. The Twins have a clear need at third base after sending Royce Lewis down, and Shaw could easily be the long-term solution. It's worth noting that while his overall numbers aren't very good, he finished last season strongly and began this season swinging a hot bat before a 1-for-22 start to May. Shaw excelled with regular at-bats, but has struggled with sporadic playing time.

It's possible that with a regular role in Minnesota, the 2023 first-round pick would flourish. Then add in Wiggins, a top-100 prospect who could easily be a rotation fixture in Minnesota as soon as the second half of this season. It's worth noting that he's currently dealing with elbow inflammation, which is always scary, but prior to the injury Wiggins was an ascending prospect. Long doesn't offer nearly as much upside as Shaw and Wiggins, but he's an MLB-ready player at a position of need who has crushed Triple-A pitching, making him a worthwhile throw-in.

The Cubs would be receiving a guy who was a top 20-30 prospect entering last season (Shaw) and a current top 60-100 guy (Wiggins). I might ask for a better third piece if I ran the Twins, but there's a chance this deal wouldn't be beaten, considering the proximity of the main pieces of the deal. The Twins would be acquiring two near-instant contributors with immense upside in exchange for a pitcher who is likely gone after 2027. That's not too shabby.

Verdict: Could go either way

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