Remember the halcyon days of late summer, when we looked ahead to the 2027 rookie quarterback class and thought of it as something potentially legendary. Arch Manning and Dante Moore as the headliners, with a ton of intriguing guys also vying for spots in the first round? Things looked great. It was a good time to need a quarterback.
Fast forward to now and it's no longer a good time to need a quarterback. There could still be up to five first-round quarterbacks, but the level of confidence teams will have in those guys will be lower, and the names of who is at the top of the class have changed. So, what happened?
Breaking down the changes in the 2027 QB class
The biggest change is that prior to this season, Arch Manning was viewed as the No. 1 quarterback in this class and a good bet to go No. 1 overall. Sure, some of that was about the pedigree, but...
Wait, sorry, I'm being told by my own brain that actually almost all of it was the pedigree. We, the football media, saw the last name Manning and because we've been starved for high-level quarterback prospects after the disappointing 2025 and 2026 classes, we said that he had to be a star. Then came his struggles early this season. Manning had five interceptions in the first five games of the season and was held to 201 or fewer passing yards in three of the Horns' first four games. It's not so much that he was awful or anything, but he just didn't look ready for the NFL. Now, most people agree that Manning will likely return to college for one more season, though he likely still goes in the bottom half of the top 10 if he declares. It just might be a mistake to draft him.
What about Dante Moore, who was expected to go in the top five last season before returning to Oregon? A concussion in September ended his season early, so kind of an incomplete here. His completion percentage was down a bit from 2025, but he hadn't thrown an interception. He's dropped down draft boards because of this situation (and also because he gets a lot of blame for the loss to Oklahoma State, when Moore completed just 48.3 percent of his passes), with his current draft stock looking like the middle of the first round, not the top.
A couple of guys have made major leaps up the board, but both have question marks.
Yeah man it’s over lol.
— Reagan Harris (@OKSTMart) November 7, 2026
Drew Mestemaker is going No. 1. 😂 pic.twitter.com/CixUUinN3t
The guy who beat Moore in that game, Drew Mestemaker, seems to be viewed as the 2027 QB1 at the moment. Mestemaker's accuracy really stands out, but there is the issue of his lack of experience. Mestemaker didn't start a single game at quarterback in high school before walking on at North Texas, where Eric Morris has turned him into his latest project. Morris has a knack for finding diamonds in the rough, though it's worth noting his most recent find, Cam Ward, has largely struggled since the Titans took him No. 1 overall. Mestemaker is appealing, but he's no guarantee.
Miami's Darian Mensah has leapt up draft boards as well. He's another accurate passer who excels in the pocket, though like Mestemaker, he lacks elite zip on his ball. That caps his upside a bit, though he could still develop into a top 15 starter.
Meanwhile, guys who people hoped would take a leap just haven't. CJ Carr is a mid-first-round prospect, but is anyone excited about him? I get Mac Jones draft vibes. Trinidad Chambliss is a lot of fun, but he's definitely not six feet tall, and the league seems to be returning to a place of suspicion when it comes to shorter quarterbacks. Then you have guys like LaNorris Sellers, Jayden Maiava and Sam Leavitt, who needed big seasons to make their way to the first round. Those big seasons haven't materialized.
Add all this together and you have a class that looks significantly worse right now than it did 10 weeks ago. How will things change between now and the end of the season?
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