No league does parity like the NFL. In 2024, the New England Patriots were 4-13. Last season. they played in the Super Bowl. Likewise, the 2024 Chiefs went 15-2 and played for a championship, but last season, the team finished below .500 and is picking in the top 10 of the draft.
The short schedule and the hard salary cap combine to create big swings in team records each year. As such, we can expect a number of teams that missed the postseason last season to return after strong NFL free agency moves. They won't all make the postseason, but each has improved enough to be in the conversation.
Kansas City Chiefs
We lead off with the Kansas City Chiefs, a team that not only has been a perennial playoff contender but a perennial Super Bowl contender for years before suffering a major fall off in 2025. Yes, quarterback Patrick Mahomes getting hurt at the end of the year contributed to the poor record overall, but don't forget that the Chiefs were eliminated from playoff contention by losing the game where Mahomes was injured. In other words, the Chiefs weren't a playoff team even before Mahomes hurt his knee.
But the Chiefs made a huge addition this offseason to get the team back to contention, adding former Seahawks running back — and defending Super Bowl MVP — Kenneth Walker. Walker gives Mahomes legitimate help in the backfield in a way he hasn't had it during his Chiefs tenure.
2025 | Yards Per Carry |
|---|---|
Kenneth Walker | 4.6 |
Isiah Pacheco | 3.9 |
Kareem Hunt | 3.7 |
In addition to Walker, the Chiefs brought back tight end Travis Kelce and made a couple of moves to beef up the defense, adding Ravens safety Alohi Gilman and Patriots defensive lineman Khyiris Tonga. It's the Walker move that looks the most important here, though, as an added weapon for Mahomes might be all it takes to get back to the postseason.
Minnesota Vikings
The Minnesota Vikings proved in 2024 that they had a roster that could contend, but in 2025 that roster was hampered by poor quarterback play. Second-year passer J.J. McCarthy was in and out of the lineup with injury and was pretty mediocre when he played, while the team was forced to start UDFA Max Brosmer a couple of times.
The Vikings should have solved that issue with the addition of quarterback Kyler Murray. Granted, Murray comes with issues of his own, both from an injury and talent perspective, but provided he can stay on the field, he's a massive upgrade over McCarthy.
Minnesota did lose a very good No. 3 receiver to the Raiders, but as long as Murray is throwing to Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, Minnesota should be good. Murray hasn't played with this level of talent during his NFL career, and it should be enough to cover up many of his flaws and get the Vikings back to the postseason.
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens missed the postseason last year in part because quarterback Lamar Jackson missed time, but also because the defense didn't play up to its usual level. The 398 points allowed by Baltimore were the most by the franchise since 2015.
Baltimore was aggressive this offseason in trying to fix things there, intiially trading for Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby. That trade fell apart after a failed physical, but the Ravens immediately fixed that by signing the best edge rusher on the market, former Bengal Trey Hendrickson.
In addition to Hendrickson, the team shored up the back end of the defense with safety Jaylinn Hawkins and also added Jets guard John Simpson to the offensive line. Simpson won't replace center Tyler Linderbaum, but he's still a solid addition to protect Jackson.
Indianapolis Colts
The Indianapolis Colts overpaid for quarterback Daniel Jones, but that overpay was likely the correct move, considering how poorly the Colts played last season in games started by anyone other than Jones.
Quarterback | 2025 Record |
|---|---|
Daniel Jones | 8-5 |
Other Colts QBs | 0-4 |
With Jones under center, the Colts looked like a clear playoff team. With Philip Rivers and Riley Leonard, they looked like one of the NFL's worst teams. Bringing back Jones, even if it required a ton of financial investment and even if it happened with him coming off a torn Achilles, was a must.
In addition to the Jones deal, the Colts spent big to retain Alec Pierce, though the team also had to trade Michael Pittman Jr. away. Defensively, the addition of Arden Key isn't the game-changing edge rushing move that the team hoped it would make, but it's still a solid move that helps the Colts inch closer to playoff contention.
Atlanta Falcons
The NFC South looks very winnable, even after the Panthers had a strong start to free agency. Carolina starts out as the favorite on paper to repeat as division champs, but don't count out the Atlanta Falcons.
Atlanta played like a playoff team down the stretch with Kirk Cousins under center, prompting plenty to think that Michael Penix Jr. was the issue. It appears this front office felt the same way as the Falcons brought in former Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
This kind of feels like the discount version of the Vikings. Minnesota has more overall talent than Atlanta, but the trio of Drake London, Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson still ranks as one of the best collection of skill position players in the league. They just need a quarterback who can get them the ball. Tagovailoa has had plenty of injury concerns, but he's also shown that he can take a strong supporting cast and win games with them. That's all he has to do in Atlanta.
Las Vegas Raiders
Could the Las Vegas Raiders go from worst to first?
Well..."first" is a stretch, but the Raiders could shock people by sneaking into the final Wild Card spot in 2026. That's because I really like what they've tried to do in free agency, signing center Tyler Linderbaum and wide receiver Jalen Nailor to support their 2026 quarterback, which should be Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
This is also where the failed Maxx Crosby trade comes into play. Long term, the Raiders would have been better off getting a pair of first-round picks for Crosby, but in the short tern, Vegas should have Crosby back next season based on what we've heard since the trade with Baltimore was canceled. If we're talking short term, Crosby return probably helps the Raider inch a bit closer to contention, even if it also sets them back a bit in the more distant future.