AFC Playoff picture: Bills, Chargers, Jaguars setting up shock runs at the No. 1 seed

Week 13 of the NFL season gave us plenty to chew on, especially when it comes to the AFC Playoff race. There are four 8-4 teams in the mix. The first team out, the Houston Texans, are home to (statistically) the NFL's No. 1 defense. The Kansas City Chiefs, winners of five of the last six AFC championship games, are the second team out. And the remaining schedules for a lot of these contenders features extensive cross-competition.

Things are about to heat up in a major way over the next five weeks. A lot can change. A lot will change. Here's what we are dealing with.

Updated AFC Playoff Picture after Bills, Jaguars, Chargers all win in Week 13

Current field

A busy Sunday saw Pittsburgh blow its lead in the AFC North, Indianapolis blow its lead in the AFC South, and multiple clutch wins from the current AFC Wild Card teams, which bodes poorly for those "in the hunt." And yet, the teams "in the hunt" are, well, dangerous.

It feels like the general strata of the AFC postseason picture are beginning to crystalize. It's still far too early to speak in definitive tone, of course, but it feels as though New England and Denver will duke it out for the No. 1 seed. The Broncos are the best top-to-bottom defense in the NFL; New England has an MVP frontrunner at quarterback and battles hard in the trenches. Those are the most bankable teams in the AFC right now. That can change, but don't count on it.

The AFC North is a complete crapshoot. The Ravens gift-wrapped the division lead for Pittsburgh on Thanksgiving with an embarrassing loss to Cincinnati, only for the Steelers to wet the bed against Buffalo on Sunday. The Bengals are a couple games back, too, and shan't be counted out with Joe Burrow back in the fray. Things could get loopy in that division. The best way to describe the AFC North is probably "competitively mediocre."

The AFC South has turned into a reeeeeeal fun race, meanwhile. Mostly a laughingstock division before the season, there are three teams of genuine quality in the hunt right now. Indianapolis has by and large the most efficient offense in the NFL, but back-to-back meltdowns against frisky opponents is an ominous sign. The Jags are somehow in first despite middling team-wide metrics; Liam Coen's squad has a clutch gene, if not too much else. And then there's Houston, pound for pound one of the best defenses in the NFL and currently on four-game win streak — which includes wins over Buffalo, Jacksonville and Indianapolis. Spicy indeed.

In the hunt

Houston beat Indianapolis to move within a game of the No. 7 seed (and potentially the division lead). Pittsburgh lost to Baltimore but is technically tied in the standings; the Ravens hold the tiebreaker. Kansas City fell to 6-6 on Thanksgiving and is in real peril, which is not a circumstance Patrick Mahomes is familiar with. Cincy is sneaking around the AFC North race, but needs Baltimore and Pittsburgh to both implode (very, very possible). Miami is 'in the hunt,' but NFL.com gives them a less than one percent chance. Sorry, Fins fans.

The Wild Card race as a whole is setting us all up for spectacular fireworks over the final five weeks of the campaign. Buffalo has Josh Allen, but injuries up and down the roster have left them vulnerable. Lamar Jackson and the Ravens could easily fall out if Pittsburgh decides to step up, but that seems just as improbable as Baltimore delivering on preseason expectations.

The Chargers, Jaguars, Colts, and Bills are all deadlocked at 8-4. Houston is hot on their heels. The Texans face the Colts again in Week 18, a potential tie breaking affair. So keep your eyes peeled. Houston's defense is just suplexing opponents at the moment. I'd not want to end up in a close race with them, especially with CJ Stroud back from injury and looking pretty solid in his return.

On the Indianapolis front, the Colts have the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL. Two games against Jacksonville, a finale against Houston, and showdowns with Seattle and San Francisco. That is a tough stretch for a team on its back foot in recent weeks. Daniel Jones is hurt. The run game has subsided, ever so slightly. The defense is good, not elite. If Indy can't mow through their division opponents, their standing in the Wild Card race becomes extremely tenuous — not to mention the division race.

The Chargers are also entering a brutal stretch schedule-wise: Philadelphia (potentially without Justin Herbert), Kansas City (with potential tiebreaker implications), Dallas (red-hot!), Houston (top-3 NFL defense) and Denver (top-3 NFL defense). Godspeed.

Compare that to Buffalo — with Cincinnati, Cleveland and New York Jets softballs all lined up on a tee — and Bills fans can feel reasonably good about their Wild Card chances, even if the Patriots remain favorites to win the actual division.

Are the Patriots at risk of losing the No. 1 seed?

New England (10-2) steps into Monday night's showdown against the New York Giants (2-10) as the favorites to claim the No. 1 overall seed. That Giants game feels like an easy win, although we've seen Jaxson Dart do some incredible things at the onset of his career.

If the Patriots win, that would leave them with an 11-2 record and at least a half-game lead over No. 2 Denver heading into a Week 14 buy. The Patriots' remaining schedule is also extremely favorable:

If the Bills win, and handle their business against an otherwise soft schedule, Buffalo can absolutely put pressure on a less experienced Patriots squad. But frankly, the Patriots are healthier and more balanced — and the major QB advantage Buffalo once wielded feels moot after Maye's MVP leap.

Since the Chargers, Colts and Jaguars all face challenging final gauntlets, the odds remain ever in New England's favor. If you're a Patriots fan, however, just don't count your eggs before they hatch. This is new territory for Maye (and the majority of New England's core). Mike Vrabel is the right coach to guide New England through this unfamiliar territory, and Maye has solid vets around him. But the Patriots aren't battle-tested like their foremost competitors.

So yes, the Patriots control their destiny. And yes, New England should be favored to emerge as the top speed. This group has won nine straight, lest we forget. But the NFL is a chaos engine, so never rule out the unexpected. Just look at those standings and compare them to your preseason bracket.