The Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Carolina Panthers in the rain on Saturday afternoon, 16-14. It was an ugly win, defined by muddy conditions and virtuosically bad refs. But a win is a win. Both teams finish the regular season 8-9, tied both overall and head-to-head. That means the tiebreakers get… funky.
Neither team’s season is over. The Panthers needed a win to lock up the No. 4 seed, but Tampa can still get the short end of the proverbial stick. It all comes down to Sunday’s otherwise meaningless showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints, two heated division rivals with nothing left to play for. Tampa and Carolina fans will be watching, enrapt, with more on the line than either fanbase of the teams actually participating in the game.
NFC Playoff Picture after Bucs beat Panthers in Week 18
Team | Record |
|---|---|
1. Seattle Seahawks | 13-3 |
2. Chicago Bears | 11-5 |
3. Philadelphia Eagles | 11-5 |
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-9 |
5. San Francisco 49ers | 12-4 |
6. Los Angeles Rams | 11-5 |
7. Green Bay Packers | 9-6-1 |
Still alive: Carolina Panthers (8-9)
Much can still change. Seattle and San Francisco will duke it out for the No. 1 seed on Saturday night, while Chicago and Philadelphia will determine their standing as the No. 2 or No. 3 seeds with their games on Sunday. But all eyes, at this point, are on the NFC South.
The mediocrity on display in the NFC South this season, especially when compared to the level of competition in the NFC North and NFC West, is almost impressive. It’s like these teams refuse to separate from the pack. Atlanta can, with a win on Sunday, finish 8-9, too. Meaning the top three teams in the division may all finish with the same, sub-.500 record. Again, almost impressive. It certainly is mathematically improbable for an entire division to so thoroughly embody the concept of “meh.”
For now, Tampa is the nominal No. 4 seed after Saturday’s win, but it doesn’t really matter. The Bucs and Panthers are deadlocked until the football gods determine their fate on Sunday. Here’s how the situation breaks down:
Tampa holds the common games tiebreaker over Carolina. But, in the event of a three-way tie, the winner is determined by the best record in games played between the three teams. Carolina is 3-1 against Tampa and Atlanta. Tampa is 2-2. Atlanta is 1-3. So, if the Falcons win and bring their record to 8-9, the tables turn and the Panthers are NFC South champs for the first time in a decade.
If the Saints win, the two-team tiebreaker is in effect and Tampa holds the edge. So Bucs fans will be cheering for New Orleans on Sunday, against all fan instincts, while Carolina fans face a similar conundrum: the need to root for Atlanta. This is why football, and even the NFC South, is so great. Strange things happen every season, fans are put into uncomfortable situations, and chaos reigns. And all of this is just to earn the right to host either Seattle or San Francisco as heavy underdogs in the Wild Card round.
Atlanta beat the Saints, 24-10, in their first head-to-head matchup this season. The Falcons are the betting favorites, by a narrow margin, entering Sunday’s now-consequential (if not for them) game. New Orleans has won three straight, including wins over Tampa Bay and Carolina, funny enough. Atlanta, meanwhile, has also won three straight, including a win over Tampa — and a shocking Week 17 win over the Rams, with Bijan Robinson finding a higher gear, Kirk Cousins settling in, and Atlanta refusing to tank, as their first-round pick belongs to L.A.
The Falcons and Saints are both hot at a point in the season where being hot does not really benefit them long term. Both teams are losing draft position (Atlanta in the second round and later), and both fan bases would probably welcome a loss on Sunday. Especially the Saints, even if fans won’t admit it. The Vegas odds, again, favor Atlanta, which means Carolina is the slight favorite to win the division and a spot in the playoffs. What a time.
NFC first round playoff matchups
- Seattle on buy
- Packers at Bears
- Rams at Eagles
- 49ers at Buccaneers/Panthers
AFC Playoff Picture entering Week 18
Team | Record |
|---|---|
1. Denver Broncos | 13-3 |
2. New England Patriots | 13-3 |
3. Jacksonville Jaguars | 12-4 |
4. Pittsburgh Steelers | 9-7 |
5. Houston Texans | 11-5 |
6. Los Angeles Chargers | 11-5 |
7. Buffalo Bills | 11-5 |
Still alive: Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
As far as the AFC is concerned, let’s just call the AFC North the NFC South of the AFC. There won’t be a three-way tie possibility here, but the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers will face each other on Sunday night with the No. 4 seed — and the division crown — on the line.
Baltimore is up 1-0 in the season series. A second win over Pittsburgh gives them an easy tiebreaker. If the Steelers win, Pittsburgh will have the better record outright and there won’t be need for a tiebreaker. This should be a fun matchup between deeply flawed teams and bitter rivals. It is, perhaps, Aaron Rodgers’ last great test as an NFL player. If he loses and Mike Tomlin misses the playoffs — a rare occurrence these past couple decades — one wonders if the 42-year-old QB might hang ‘em up and retire.
The rest of the AFC postseason picture is more convoluted.
The top is simple enough: if Denver wins, Denver is the No. 1 seed. If Denver loses and the Patriots win, New England gets the No. 1 seed. Clean and simple.
In the AFC South, Houston holds the tiebreaker over Jacksonville if both teams finish with the same record. A Jags win and a Texans loss, or a Jags loss and a Texans loss, would hand the No. 3 seed and the division crown to Jacksonville. So Houston needs a win over the Colts (very doable) and a Jacksonville loss to Tennessee (exceedingly improbable) to secure the No. 3 seed.
The AFC West belongs to Denver. The AFC East belongs to New England. In the Wild Card slots, much can still change, in theory. Each team has the potential to move up with a win or down with a loss. Houston faces Indianapolis and Buffalo faces the Jets, both of which feel like easy wins (but you never know). The Chargers will face No. 1 Denver. That ought to be a competitive game, as the Broncos will be playing to secure the top seed and a first-round buy. So the odds do not necessarily favor L.A. when it comes to securing premium seeding in the Wild Card bracket.
AFC first round playoff matchups
- Broncos on bye
- Bills at Patriots
- Chargers at Jaguars
- Texans at Steelers