Entering Week 17, it felt like we knew pretty much everything there was to know about the NFL playoff picture. Sure, there were some seeding questions left to sort out, but the teams were just about set.
And then the games actually began, and it's been pure, uncut chaos since. Some teams, like the Houston Texans, are taking advantage and playing their best football as the season winds down. Others, however, are doing the exact opposite, leaving their playoff fate in question — if they can even make it to the postseason at all.
5. Green Bay Packers
We're cutting the Packers a little bit of slack with this ranking, as Green Bay has lost Jordan Love and then Malik Willis to injury in consecutive games (not to mention star edge rusher Micah Parsons). But let's be real: No matter how many big names are out, there are no excuses for the effort we've seen from this team in recent weeks.
It's become abundantly clear just how much Parsons was propping up this defense. First, they got shredded by Bo Nix in Denver, and on Saturday night they gave up over 200 yards and four TDs on the ground to Derrick Henry. And that's not even to mention the debacle in Chicago, in which Green Bay flubbed an onside kick to turn a key divisional win into a gut-punch loss. The Packers are still on track to make the playoffs as a Wild Card team — thanks to another team a little bit ahead of them on this list — but the roster limitations have become clear, particularly on defense.
4. Indianapolis Colts
The Philip Rivers experiment has gone better than anyone could've reasonably expected ... and yet it hasn't mattered, as the Colts dropped their sixth game in a row at home against the Jaguars on Sunday. Indy has been cooked for weeks now, but Week 17 made it official: This is not a playoff team, and there are still lots of questions to answer for a team that looked like the class of the conference not too long ago.
Like with Green Bay, injuries have a lot to do with it, as both Daniel Jones and Sauce Gardner have missed significant time. But it's also tough to escape the feeling that this team has come crashing back down to Earth, a previously devastating run game has all but dried up after the league got wise and a lack of difference-making talent in the front seven — and especially at linebacker — has left the defense exposed. The Colts' hot start gave them plenty of cushion, and yet somehow even that wasn't enough.
3. Detroit Lions
There's a bit of déjà vu around the Detroit Lions right now. Last season, they defied a downright comical number of injuries to once again win the NFC North ... only to finally collapse in their first playoff game against the Commanders. This year, the story was largely the same — it's just that the collapse came a few weeks earlier.
Detroit's offensive line has just about disintegrated over the course of the season, due to both injury and the sort of attrition that hits every team as the extensions come due and tough cap decisions have to be made. That's left Jared Goff vulnerable to the sort of pressure we know he doesn't respond well to, and a depleted defense that's been grasping at straws in the secondary hasn't been able to pick up the slack.
There's still plenty of talent here, and it's premature to say that the Lions' window has closed; their hot start to the year sure felt legit at the time. But five losses in the last seven games, and four out of five, is a very tough look. And it's felt even worse in real time, as Brad Holmes needs to figure out how to develop more depth.
2. Pittsburgh Steelers
The first three teams on this list have executed long, slow slides down the standings. The Steelers, by contrast, seemingly had the AFC North handed to them on a silver platter as the Ravens imploded. And yet, just when it felt safe to exhale, Pittsburgh shot itself in the foot in spectacular fashion, mustering all of six points in a loss at Cleveland in Week 17. Now the division is back up for grabs, with a winner-take-all finale against Baltimore on tap next weekend.
There was plenty of reason to be skeptical about this Steelers team, which has felt ordinary all season long even as they've managed to rack up some wins down the stretch. But bellyflopping this badly, against a putrid Browns team starting a rookie quarterback (who threw two interceptions, by the way!), is downright inexcusable. Watching the game in real time, you'd be forgiven for thinking that Pittsburgh was more worried about keeping Myles Garrett from breaking the single-season sack record than actually scoring points or winning a game. It was all the concerns about this offense (and this team overall), come home to roost at the worst possible time.
1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
And yet, for all the futility on this list, none have been quite as disheartening as what the Tampa Bay Bucs have put on display in recent weeks. With the NFC South as wide-open (to put it charitably) as ever, Todd Bowles' team has refused to take advantage, with another loss in Miami on Sunday making it seven in their last eight games.
Somehow, thanks to Carolina's loss to Seattle in Week 17, Tampa still has a chance to back into the playoffs. But does anyone really want to see that? Baker Mayfield is in full Cleveland mode, spraying easy throws and putting the ball in harm's way with regularity. And perhaps even more disconcertingly, this defense — Bowles' primary value add as head coach — isn't threatening anyone against the run or the pass. It's just been some very bad football, and there's too much talent on this team to let that slide.