While making the playoffs is the ultimate regular season goal, winning the division is what every NFL contender shoots for because of what that accomplishment provides. Winning the division ensures that you host at least one playoff game — which, while not guaranteeing anything, makes it easier to advance. No team prefers to play on the road as opposed to at home.
Given how important winning the division title is, let's take a look at each one now that the trade deadline has passed and determine which current leaders are most likely to finish the job.
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday night, and I am picking the Bengals to win. The dynamic trio of Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins is virtually impossible to slow down, and I expect that to win the Bengals this game, even with their shoddy defense. If that happens, the Bengals will take over first place from Pittsburgh, and as surprisingly well as the Steelers have played, I'm not sure Cincinnati would cough up that lead, given how easy their schedule is the rest of the way.
Now, the Steelers have an easy schedule too, but outside of a tough game against the Chiefs, the Bengals have a really easy schedule. And given just how well their offense is clicking, I have a hard time believing anyone in the AFC North will beat Cincinnati to a division title, especially with the Ravens now being all but out of contention.
7. Carolina Panthers
The NFC South is once again the toughest division to pick a favorite in because, well, all four teams stink. The 3-5 Carolina Panthers, who have lost three in a row, lead it because of their tiebreaker over the New Orleans Saints, but why should anyone trust them? Not only has Bryce Young and the offense slowed since their hot start, but the defense is a mess, ranking in the bottom five in points and yards rushing allowed per game. While injuries have played a role, it's not like they made any trades to improve their defense.
The Atlanta Falcons and Saints did trade important defensive players away for draft capital, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have an incredibly underwhelming offense, so I don't trust them either. But all four teams are within half a game of each other. They're equally bad. When the teams are equally bad, it's tough to predict who is going to win the division.
6. Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos are one of the best teams in the NFL and they're in a pretty good spot, up by a game in the win column over the Kansas City Chiefs. But are they really the favorites? Forget what the Chiefs have proven with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid leading the way. It feels like their roster is more well-rounded.
The Chiefs addressed their biggest need at the trade deadline by acquiring Josh Downs, while the Broncos did nothing. The Chiefs' passing attack just got more formidable, while the Broncos' offense, which has not been good, didn't get any better. Denver's defense could will the Broncos to the division title, but I have more questions about that team than I do about the Chiefs.
5. New York Giants
I don't know what to make of the NFC East-leading New York Giants. They had a chance to take complete control of the division with a win Thursday night against a two-win Commanders team, but lost on their home field and dropped to 5-3-1 on the year. They're still in first place, and should probably be favored, but it feels like this team is more the byproduct of a bad division than being a good team themselves, and that makes them a bit tough to pick.
Are the Giants more talented than the Dallas Cowboys? I wouldn't say that, but with the exception of this week, the Giants have certainly executed better, which absolutely matters. John Harbaugh's impact has been felt, and with the Cowboys giving NFL fans no real reason to believe in them, and with the Eagles completely out of it, this feels like New York's division to lose, at least for now.
4. Chicago Bears
The Chicago Bears might be the Super Bowl favorites. Their offense, when humming, is virtually impossible to stop, and their defense is much improved as well, thanks largely to the Jeffery Simmons acquisition. It might seem crazy that I only have them at No. 4 on this list when they could easily win the Super Bowl, but that's more of a testament to how good this division is as a whole.
If the regular season ended today, all four teams in the NFC North would make the playoffs. Even at 7-2, the Bears are only one game ahead of the last-place Green Bay Packers, who have won five of their last six games and have already beaten the Bears. The Lions might have the best offense in the NFC, while the Vikings might have the best defense in the NFC. I do believe the Bears are the best of the bunch, but given how good the other teams are, I can only put Chicago so high on this list.
3. San Francisco 49ers
The San Francisco 49ers are 7-1, have already beaten the second-place Seattle Seahawks and improved their roster by acquiring DeForest Buckner and Keenan Allen at the trade deadline. The Niners have played outstanding football all year despite a lengthy list of injuries and clear roster weaknesses that Allen and Buckner are likely to help solve.
The Niners are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The only thing holding them back, ever so slightly, on this list has to do with how good their division is. The Seahawks and Rams have underperformed thus far, but the Seahawks are defending champions, while the Rams have won three games in a row. The Niners will need to play good football the rest of the way to fend off those teams, but they're comfortably in the driver's seat right now.
2. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have allowed 29 or more points in five of their eight games, yet they're 7-1 on the year. This goes to show that even while their defense has been among the league's worst all year, their offense, which is averaging a league-leading 32 points, has bailed them out. What if I told you the Bills acquired one of the best defensive players traded at the deadline to help aid that reeling defense?
Amani Hooker was a fantastic pickup for Buffalo, and he should help their struggling pass defense a lot. The Bills were a great team that improved their biggest weakness, while the team chasing them, the New England Patriots, did nothing at the deadline. Now, the Patriots are a good team and they have already beaten the Bills once (and they play each other again later in the year), but Buffalo has a 2.5-game cushion and might be the favorite to win the AFC right now.
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
Even before the trade deadline, I would've had the Jacksonville Jaguars at the top of this list. Not only have they played outstanding football all year, but who else in the AFC South scares you? The Texans have greatly underperformed, while both the Colts and Titans are bottom-feeders that sold off pieces at the trade deadline. After the deadline the Jags just had, how can they not be at the top of this list?
The Jaguars might've given up a lot to acquire Jessie Bates, Davon Godchaux and Jordan Davis, but those players should help their defense, which was already great, a lot right now. This Jags team is squarely in Super Bowl contention, and has no threats to worry about in the AFC South.
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