The NFL Playoffs push into their second week after the Wild Card Round delivered historically close competition almost across the board. The eight teams left standing all feel like they have a shot. Absent the typical juggernauts in Kansas City or Philadelphia, there is not a clear-cut favorite. The betting market may try to tell you otherwise, but predicting Super Bowl LX is a true crapshoot right now.
There are plenty of exciting potential matchups. For those of us who predicted Jacksonville vs. Green Bay (What? Just me?), now is a good time to reflect, reset, and take stock of what lies ahead. If we were to hand-pick the Super Bowl LX matchup based on the right combination of narrative, entertainment value, and good ol’ football machinations, here are the five best to choose from.
5. Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
There’s something to be said about a battle of No. 1 seeds. Whether you fully “believe” in either the Seattle Seahawks or the Denver Broncos, both teams won 14 games.
There are intriguing parralels between these teams, too. Both fall somewhere in the middle of the pack in terms of offensive efficiency (Denver 10th in EPA per play, Seattle 15th) and toward the top in defensive efficiency (Denver eighth, Seattle second). And yet, both coaches come from distinct backgrounds: Mike Macdonald the 38-year-old defensive whiz kid, Sean Payton the Super Bowl-minted QB whisperer.
Denver excels at stifling the pass game, while Seattle’s defense stuffs the run better than any unit in football. On offense, there are two quarterbacks looking to prove their mettle. Bo Nix as the sophomore hoping to gain a leg up on his draft peers, Drake Maye and Caleb Williams. Sam Darnold, meanwhile, is one of the NFL’s best stories — the journeyman who fought his way back from the brink of obscurity to win 14 games in back-to-back seasons, on different teams.
The potent cocktail of similarities and differences, combined with the narrative boost of two No. 1 seeds, both from not-dissimilar parts of the country, would make this one hell of a final showdown. Sometimes the “chalk” outcome can be a bit boring, but Denver and Seattle ought to deliver a competitive final game, with each offensive possession carrying the weight of the world.
4. Los Angeles Rams vs. Houston Texans
This matchup pits the No. 1 offense against the No. 1 defense. Eyes may roll at the concept of a five-seed vs. five-seed battle, but this is the most balanced postseason in recent memory. Every team left has what it takes to mount a deep run. The margin between the top seeds and bottom seeds in these divisional rounds are paper thin.
The Houston Texans are on an all-time heater. Their Wild Card stomping of Pittsburgh marked their 10th straight win. There is not a single team with more momentum right now. Houston’s offense remains a box of chocolates — you can get whiplash watching CJ Stroud oscillate between stardom and mediocrity — but the defense is basically a SEAL team, operating with lethal force and total precision.
Especially dominant against the pass, it’d be fascinating to watch how MVP frontrunner Matthew Stafford, at 38 years old, can handle the pressure. Stafford can still squeeze the football into tight windows as well as anyone in football. His quick processing, creative deliveries — not to mention the firepower of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams — has kryptonite potential against Houston.
The Los Angeles Rams quielty finished the season with a top-10 defense, too. If Stroud limits available mistakes (something he has done well all season, the Steelers game notwithstanding) and Houston can establish the run, this matchup should go extremely hard. It could turn into a rock fight if Houston exerts its will, but this game coming down to the wire, with Stafford banking on years of experience and Stroud looking to make his grand statement, sounds like a heavenly experience for fans.
3. Los Angeles Rams vs. Buffalo Bills
These are two of the most efficient passing offenses in the NFL. This matchup arguably features the two best quarterbacks working today, at least in the framework of this season. Stafford should win MVP; he’s still shredding defenses like he did a decade ago. Josh Allen, meanwhile, put on a superhuman performance to carry the Buffalo Bills past Jacksonville in the Wild Card round.
There is narrative thrust behind this particular matchup, beyond the extremely high level of quarterback play and the potential for offensive explosions. Stafford is looking to win his second ring and polish his Hall of Fame résumé, with retirement around the corner. Allen, after years of futile efforts against Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs buzzsaw, finally has a clear path to a legacy-defining first ring.
Los Angeles is the better team on paper, without a doubt. Their defense is healthier. The wide receiver core is much, much stronger. But Allen has always proven able to do the most with the least. He leaves it all on the field, able to manufacture opportunities with his legs and deliver throws no other human on the planet can execute. That we know of. This would be the final beast in a miracle postseason run for Buffalo, a team still facing long odds. One glance at the depth chart gives one a sense of just how far Allen will need to push himself in the coming weeks.
For Sean McDermott, this is a chance to finally earn job security and start building a potential dynasty in the AFC. For Sean McVay, it’s a chance to climb the mountain for a second time, shortly after his 40th birthday. This is the outcome for maximum star power and entertainment value.
2. Los Angeles Rams vs. New England Patriots
Not to keep spamming the Rams, but there isn’t a better — or frankly, more entertaining — team in the NFC. It is what it is. There’s so much going on with L.A., too. McVay and Stafford going for No. 2. Davante Adams finally in a position to go the distance. Plus, while there are benefits to stingy defense in the Super Bowl, the best product from a watchability standpoint typically involves highlight passes and explosive plays.
Enter the New England Patriots: No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 1 in passing efficiency. You don’t need many guesses to figure out the No. 2 team in those categories, at least with EPA is concerned. The only offense capable of challenging L.A.’s this season would be the new-look Patriots, with Stafford’s primary MVP competition lined up under center.
In just his second NFL season, Maye has blossomed into a full-blown superstar for the Pats. He sat for a good chunk of his rookie season before taking over and cracking the Pro Bowl as a rookie, despite one of the worst supporting casts in football and a dumpster-fire coaching situation. Lo and behold, he has a real team now, and a coach with winning DNA in Mike Vrabel. That ‘Patriot Way’ has really rubbed off on Maye this time around. He can deliver every throw in the book, but he’s also shifty with his legs. This matchup puts the Rams defense, eons removed from the star-power of their first Super Bowl run under McVay, to the ultimate test.
This game would not technically decide the MVP race, but maybe it should. If it gets to this point, the history books won’t remember which QB won a regular season trophy. They will remember which QB outdueled the other on football’s grandest stage. It’s a battle between elite talents. It’s also a generational battle. If Maye can dethrone Old Man Stafford, it will be a pivotal part of his career lore. If Stafford staves off the young buck, he can retire in the next couple years knowing that he conquered multiple eras.
1. Chicago Bears vs. New England Patriots
Of the teams remaining in the Divisional Round, none are more confounding and electric than the Chicago Bears. For those of us without rooting interest in those left, how can you not secretly pull for Chicago? The Bears are all guts. This team felt dead in the water a year ago. The Matt Eberflus era was pure misery, a feeling Bears fans have come to know well over the past couple decades.
All it took was a few helpful upgrades and the infinite wisdom of 39-year-old Ben Johnson to turn things around on the spot. Caleb Williams struggled as a rookie. After an offseason of extensive learning, he finally looks like the star quarterback Chicago fans expected with the No. 1 pick. Williams could stand to become a bit more efficient, a bit more consistent, but he shows up in the big moments. Almost without fail.
The Bears have made a habit of rollicking fourth-quarter comebacks. That recipe typically is not sustainable in the postseason, but the Bears erased a 15-point deficit in the fourth quarter against Green Bay — an arch rival. This team never quits, and the offense has become truly potent, truly explosive under Johnson.
The defense is a bit less stable, but the Patriots didn’t exactly stymie teams on that end in the regular season. Health was a factor for New England, and the defense showed up big time in the Wild Card Round against the Chargers. But on paper, this is a showdown between two electric offenses. New England is used to playing from ahead. Chicago are the comeback kings. Oh, and Williams and Maye went No. 1 and No. 2 in the 2024 NFL Draft. To watch them duke it out in the Super Bowl less than two years later would constitute the beginning of a potentially era-defining rivalry.
Narratively and matchup-wise, there’s a lot to like here. You can quibble with whether or not Chicago fully stacks up to the Rams or Seahawks on paper, but this team keeps finding a way, and you know damn well this game would come down to the final seconds, one way or another.