Houston Rockets offseason review
By Ian Levy
As the NBA offseason plows ahead we’re taking some time to pause and assess the work each team is doing, building for the present and future. Today, we’re looking at the Houston Rockets.
The Houston Rockets took a step back last season, unable to build on their trip to the 2015 Western Conference Finals. In need of some positive energy, they have made some small but important changes to their roster.
Inputs: Chinanu Onuaku (PF, NBA Draft pick No. 37); Zhou Qi (C, NBA Draft pick No. 43); Nene (C, signed for one year, $2.9 million); Eric Gordon (SG, signed for four years, $53 million); Ryan Anderson (PF, signed for four years, $80 million); Pablo Prigioni (PG, signed for two years, veteran’s minimum)
Outputs: Dwight Howard (C, signed with the Atlanta Hawks); Terrence Jones (PF, signed with the New Orleans Pelicans); Jason Terry (SG, unsigned); Josh Smith (PF, unsigned)
Retained: James Harden (SG, signed a four-year, $118 million extension)
Pending: Donatas Motiejunas (PF, restricted free agent)
The Rockets did well in the draft, although it might not pay immediate dividends. Both Onuaku and Zhou are highly thought of prospects who will need time to develop. Losing Dwight Howard will change the team significantly but Houston is likely hoping this is a case of addition by subtraction. This will clear room for Clint Capela to take over the middle and Nene, if he can stay healthy, is a nice low-cost addition to help provide interior defense.
Signing Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson is a move that creates a strange visual. Both a very good three-point shooters who should thrive in Houston’s new offense. They also both come with nagging injury concerns and combined to be fairly significant problems for the New Orleans Pelicans’ defense last season. The hope is that a stronger structure around them will help mitigate some of the problems.
The last real question mark is Donatas Motiejunas. When healthy, he showed the potential to be an offensive unicorn — capable of scoring in the post, working effectively in the pick-and-roll, and spotting up behind the three-point line. However, the Rockets tried to trade him during the season, only to have it rescinded because he failed the physical. Motiejunas is a restricted free agent and listening to offers. It remains to be seen if Houston would match and retain him.
3 Big Questions
To really dig deep on Houston’s offseason, I’m leaning on friends with some Rockets expertise. Scott Rafferty (@crabdribbles) is the editor of FanSided’s Hardwood Paroxysm and a contributor to Sporting News and Rolling Stone. Alykhan Bijani (@Rockets_Insider) is a contributor to Hardwood Paroxysm and to ESPN Houston.
Scott and Alykhan were nice enough to help out by answering three big questions about Memphis’ offseason.
How do the Rockets’ new pieces mesh with Mike D’Antoni’s offensive style?
Scott Rafferty: I’m excited to see how James Harden operates within Mike D’Antoni’s system. We all know he’s one of the best scorers in the NBA, but Harden is an underrated passer who should have even more opportunities to create with Dwight Howard no longer in the picture. Giving him more shooters and a willing roll man in Clint Capela, and Harden will basically play the role of Steve Nash with a lot more scoring responsibility. He’ll probably lead the league in usage rating along the way and he’ll continue to put up some of the most dominant all-around numbers we’ve ever seen.
Alykhan Bijani: I wrote a piece for Hardwood Paroxysm that discusses all the details of James Harden in a Mike D’Antoni offense. The key with Coach D’Antoni’s offense is that it simplifies the decision-making process of the primary ball-handler, in this case James Harden. With the additions of Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon, two proven floor spacers, will allow the Rockets’ offense to open up the floor and attacking opposing teams in space.
Anderson will play the slot position in the offensive system, meaning starting the offensive possession on the opposite wing from the ball-handler and primary screener. His shooting will gravitate defenders away from overloading Harden’s strong side, giving him more space to maneuver and contort his way towards the rim. Only 26 times has an NBA player gone through a season with a rebound rate greater than 10 percent, usage rate greater than 20 percent, and turnover rate less than 7.5 percent, and Ryan Anderson has done that twice in his career. He’s also had a 20+ percent usage rate the last few seasons and his highest turnover rate was 8 percent, incredible when you think about someone at his position. He’s a versatile offensive player who will give D’Antoni the flexibility of putting him in the post and running quick hits or fast motion offense through.
The biggest thing about Eric Gordon’s move to Houston is that he doesn’t need to create for himself or be the team’s primary scoring option. His main responsibility will be to facilitate the basketball and score off of opposing teams’ focusing their defensive gameplan around James Harden. Gordon is at his best when he’s setting the tone early, knocking down threes from the top of the key or in either corner. This gets him involved offensively, then he transitions from decoy to productive offensive-mover, promoting ball and player movement. The Rockets have finally found the secondary creator they’ve coveted alongside James Harden.
The Rockets defense will be next season.
Scott Rafferty: Shaky? The optimism in me wants to believe that surrounding Harden with players who compliment him better on offense will make him more motivated on defense, sort of like how he was during the 2014-15 season when he was runner-up in MVP voting. But even that probably wouldn’t move the needle much since neither Eric Gordon nor Ryan Anderson have particularly good reputations as defenders. So unless Capela becomes an All-NBA center overnight and Patrick Beverley turns back the clock a couple of years, an already bad defensive team is set to become much worse.
Alykhan Bijani: Suspect? Much relies on the progression of Clint Capela. Can he develop into an All-NBA defensive team player, can he compete for MIP? Coach Bzdelik will look to make him the centerpiece of their defensive scheme and identity. A prototypical NBA center who can defend the paint, block shots, and switch onto agile ball-handlers and force them into taking difficult shot-opportunities. Even with Capela playing great, will Harden return to his 2014-2015 defensive attitude that allowed the Rockets to not consider him a minus-defender, but just average. I’m optimistic that the Rockets will have a stable defense that emphasizes sound rotation, and defensive terminology that allows players to better defend complex offenses. However, it’ll be up to the players to exert effort and high-IQ decision making to make the Rockets middle of the pact or respectable on this end of the floor.
How much is now resting on the health of Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson?
Scott Rafferty: A lot since they both fill a huge void on the roster. Last season, the Rockets were second to only the Warriors in attempts from the three-point line but converted them at a below average rate of 34.7 percent. Now that the roster is beginning to take shape around Harden, who scores almost a quarter of his points out of isolation, it becomes paramount that they space the floor efficiently around him. With Gordon being one of the best spot-up shooters in the league last season and Anderson making more three-pointers per game than all but two power forwards, they have the right pieces in place.
Alykhan Bijani: Honestly, Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson will play a pivotal role for the Rockets this season. That is stating the obvious, but the team invested huge dollar amounts and expects both to be high volume contributors to the Rockets offense and overall success. The biggest thing with the addition of Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson is that Coach D’Antoni has the personnel in place to run a style and culture that he’s wanted since his Phoenix coaching days. He has a primary ball-handler who can score the basketball as efficiently as anyone in the league. He has a few sharp-shooters who can spread the floor and knock down three-pointers at a very high percentage. He has lengthy, quick defenders who can force turnovers and make calculated risks to ignite transition opportunities. D’Antoni will preach to his players to move the basketball, force defenses to rotate and make mistakes, and score the basketball at an efficient rate. He has players, with skill-sets that he can utilize, to make that dream come to fruition.
The full stretch
The Houston Rockets are known for their shot selection. Over the past handful of seasons, driven in part by the adoption of analytic insights, the Rockets have eschewed the mid-range jumper like no team in history. The result is a dramatic increase in their three-point rate. In fact, over the past five seasons, no team (including the Golden State Warriors) has attempted more three-pointers than the Houston Rockets. This creates the appearance of a team full devoted to spacing the floor around dribble penetration but Houston hasn’t always had the pieces to manifest that identity.
The graph below shows the total number of three-pointers made for each team last season by power forwards and centers (defined by Nylon Calculus’ position estimates as players who played at least 75 percent of their minutes combined at those two positions).
The Rockets were near the bottom of the league in three-point volume from their big men. Research by Justin Willard found that the benefits of spacing in terms of increasing offensive efficiency often hinge on having a shooting big man. Lineups with no three-point shooting bigs under-performed their expected offensive efficiency. Whereas lineups with at least one three-point shooting big over-performed their expected offensive efficiency to a significant degree.
This is one of the reasons the addition of Ryan Anderson could be so important to the Rockets offense. Anderson made 131 three-pointers last season. To put that in context, that’s more than the Golden State Warriors received from all their big men combined. The ability to build lineups that feature three shooters on the perimeter around Harden’s penetration should pay dramatic dividends for Houston’s offense.
Just don’t ask about their defense.
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