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Oklahoma vs TCU: Game preview, odds, prediction

By Nathaniel Reeves

Sep 23, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver John Diarse (9) runs the ball against Southern Methodist Mustangs safety Mikial Onu (4) in the third quarter at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 23, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; TCU Horned Frogs wide receiver John Diarse (9) runs the ball against Southern Methodist Mustangs safety Mikial Onu (4) in the third quarter at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Oklahoma Sooners will try to recover from an ugly start to the season in a tough road match-up against the No. 21 TCU Horned Frogs.

The wide open Big 12 race is set to heat up in October, starting with a critical road match-up between the Oklahoma Sooners and TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday evening at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

After opening the season with playoff expectations, Oklahoma is now hoping just to be a factor in the Big 12 race at 1-2. The Sooners were beaten handily by Houston and Ohio State in non conference play, as the defense has really struggled and quarterback Baker Mayfield hasn’t provided quite the same spark as last year.

Despite losing the likes of Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson to the NFL, TCU was also projected to be among the Big 12 favorites. Mistakes piled up in a 41-38 home loss to Arkansas, although the Horned Frogs were able to creep back into the top 25 with easy wins over Iowa State and SMU.

While any team in the nation would be challenged by Oklahoma’s early schedule, there are plenty of reasons for concern in Norman. The Sooners were blown away by the bigger and faster athletes of Ohio State, and that won’t get much easier on Saturday night.

In particular, Oklahoma is going to need its secondary to play at a much higher level to pick up a road win over the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma was torched by Houston and Ohio State sophomore Noah Brown, has yet to record an interception, and ranks 111th in the nation in pass efficiency.

While Jordan Thomas had done well enough as the top starting corner, Oklahoma still can’t find a starter for the other side of the field. That could spell trouble against TCU, which has playmakers all over the field.

Starting quarterback Kenny Hill hasn’t been perfect for the Horned Frogs, but he can still do some damage down the field with receivers John Diarse and Taj Williams. Throw in running back Kyle Hicks, who is averaging six yards per carry, and the Sooners are going to be hard pressed to slow down TCU.

The Horned Frogs’ defense isn’t in for a fun day either after struggling with Arkansas. Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine should be able to move the ball effectively on the ground, while Mayfield still has the improvisational ability to create big plays.

However, Mayfield is going to need some help from the rest of the offense is Oklahoma is going to win. The depth for the Sooners isn’t there in 2016, as no receiver has emerged to help replace the production of Sterling Shepard.

Odds

Spread: Oklahoma -3.5

O/U: 69.5

Where Oklahoma could really run into trouble is on the offensive line, as Bob Stoops has shuffled the lineup around early with little success. That plays into the strength of the Horned Frogs, who lead the Big 12 with 14 sacks, as Aaron Curry, Ty Summers and Sammy Douglas have all been disruptive in the early going.

Mayfield will likely be pressured into some mistakes, while the Sooners defense has not proven it can do the same to Hill. In a game where both teams should score plenty of points, those mistakes and turnovers will make the difference.

Both teams have lost to the only good teams on their respective schedules, so we’ll learn a lot on Saturday evening. With a deeper offense and home field advantage, the Horned Frogs will be able to pull away late.

Pick: TCU 42, Oklahoma 35

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