Fansided

Nylon Calculus: Early season offenses and defenses in context

By Bo Schwartz Madsen

Nov 8, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum (3) celebrates with teammates after a game against the Phoenix Suns at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The Trail Blazers won 124-121. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 8, 2016; Portland, OR, USA; Portland Trail Blazers guard C.J. McCollum (3) celebrates with teammates after a game against the Phoenix Suns at Moda Center at the Rose Quarter. The Trail Blazers won 124-121. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-USA TODAY Sports /
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We’re only close to a tenth into the NBA season. A lot of storylines begin with “We know it’s early, but so-and-so are looking good/bad/awful”. It is early to judge teams, especially without looking at their early season schedule.

Every schedule is different and some teams have played a lot of stingy defenses, while others have played dazzling offenses. Some teams have even played both.

I have taken a look at offenses and defenses in the league and compared them to the opposition that they have faced. The plot below shows the average defensive efficiency of opponents and the offensive efficiency of the team itself.

Read More: Nylon Calculus — The Golden State Warriors are heating up

Notice that the scales are different on the two axes. If a team is above the line dividing green and red, it has had a better offensive efficiency than the average defensive efficiency of the teams it has faced so far. For instance, the Charlotte Hornets are scoring 105.1 points per 100 possession so far and have had the 11th best offense in the league. But they have also faced some really bad defenses so far — Boston, Indiana and Philadelphia have not been great defensive squads this season.

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On the other hand, the Portland Trail Blazers have had a middling offense, scoring 103.1 points per 100 possessions. But they have also faced the stingiest defense on average among all teams. That’s what playing the Los Angeles Clippers twice this season already will do to you. But no games against any really bad defensive squads is also a factor — the worst defense that the Blazer have faced is the Denver Nuggets’ at 21st in the league.

The Chicago Bulls have been a surprise with their offensive production this season, but they have also face the worst defenses on average.

A team wants to be as far into the green as possible. Golden State and Cleveland are close to each other in offensive production, but the Warriors have so far faced better defenses on average than the Cavaliers.

The next plot shows the same, but for defenses. The colors have switched because you want your defensive rating to be as low as possible.

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The Minnesota Timberwolves have been slightly worse than average on defense, but that is actually quite bad, when we consider that the best offense they have faced is the Brooklyn Nets (18th in the league). Thibs has some work to do!

The Dallas Mavericks have been surprisingly good on defense considering that they have faced the best offenses on average.

There are a lot of factors that this analysis do not consider. Homecourt advantage, rest, injuries and so on are not part of it. But this is still a useful way to consider the early season results and appraise the offenses and defenses so far.

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