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MLS Cup final, Toronto FC vs. Seattle Sounders: Preview, odds, prediction

By David Rouben

Dec 9, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, USA; Stadium workers position a giant replica of the MLS Cup trophy after training sessions in preparations for the MLS Cup final between Seattle Sounders and Toronto FC at BMO Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 9, 2016; Toronto, Ontario, USA; Stadium workers position a giant replica of the MLS Cup trophy after training sessions in preparations for the MLS Cup final between Seattle Sounders and Toronto FC at BMO Field. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports /
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Toronto FC and the Seattle Sounders will play in their first ever MLS Cup finals Saturday night. Here’s a full preview, and a look at the odds.

Toronto FC made their MLS debut in 2007, while the Seattle Sounders joined the league in 2009. The fact both have made it to the MLS Cup final is impressive, even if Toronto FC’s ineptitude came to define the team’s early years.

Seattle and Toronto’s paths to the final have been extremely different. The Sounders have consistently been a playoff team in MLS, but only secured their spot this year in the last game of the regular season.

There was a lot of turnover at the start of the year — Chad Barrett, Lamar Neagle, Marco Pappa and Obafemi Martins all left the club. They also suffered through a scary injury when Clint Dempsey was sidelined with an irregular heartbeat at the end of August.

Despite that, they weren’t short on attacking options. Jordan Morris has developed into a very bright young star, while Nicolas Lodeiro — who arrived in July — has powered the Sounders to their playoff victories. He’s been arguably more dangerous than Dempsey, but their defense has been the story of the playoffs.

Through five games, Seattle has three clean sheets, while they’ve only scored eight goals. In contrast, Toronto scored seven goals in both of their two-legged series against New York City FC and Montreal Impact. And while their fans cried robbery when Sebastian Giovinco was snubbed for the MLS MVP, Jozy Altidore has been their MVP of the Playoffs.

Altidore is in the form of his life, having scored in all five of Toronto’s matches, while leading the MLS with five playoff goals. In addition, his confidence has got to be at an all-time high after he received the award for USMNT Player of the Year.

Toronto’s best performance of the playoffs came away from home, in the second leg against NYCFC, but their second leg game against Montreal proved how big home-field advantage has been to them. They’ve only lost three games at home all year long, and are undefeated in the playoffs. BMO Field may have 30,000 less seats than CenturyLink Field, but they have the loudest fans in the league, which is the reason it’s become such a fortress.

Odds

Money line: +110 Toronto FC, +220 Seattle Sounders

That is likely the reason Toronto are favored to hoist the MLS Cup, even though head coach Greg Vanney has done his best to dismiss the idea. That’s because when it comes to a Cup final, you can throw previous records and betting trends out the window.

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There’s no shortage of storylines in this contest. Will Seattle be successful in containing Toronto’s high-powered offense? Will Stefan Frei come back to haunt his former team? Which team’s late-season signings will prove to be more impactful? And who will win the battle in the midfield? While the Sounders have been an excellent defensive team, they haven’t faced an attack as potent as Toronto’s.

At the same time, Toronto have capable defenders of their own. They spent big money on it in the offseason, and shut out the league’s best offensive team in New York City FC over two legs. However, they looked awful at times against Montreal, and can’t get off to that type of slow start if they want to hoist the Cup.

Toronto will likely concede goals, and Seattle’s defense is solid, it’s still hard not to favor the team playing at home. This should be a thrilling contest, and one that will end 3-2 in extra time in favor of Toronto FC.

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