Drew Stubbs: What Move to Cleveland will do

Get your Drew Stubbs autographed baseball while they’re hot. Photo by Westchester.

As Drew Stubbs sped through the minor leagues averaging nearly 30 stolen bases per year while increasing his steals each season, the Reds thought they were getting a guy to put at the top of the order.

Yet when he got to the majors in 2009, he suddenly had more power than he had showed in the majors. So, Cincy thought they were getting a Mike Trout type of a player before anyone knew who Mike Trout was.

Cincinnati  wanted to keep him at the top of the order to take advantage of his steals and get some bonus pop into the line-up, but the increase in power quickly led to a decrease in his ability to get on base. Quickly, Stubbs was no longer a fit at the top of the order.

By the end of last season, the Reds moved him to the bottom third of the order and then he was recently traded to Cleveland so the Reds could get a more reliable lead-off hitter in Shin-Soo Choo.

Stubbs is more valuable than a No. 7 hitter, but not a good fit in the lead-off spot, so lets hope Cleveland can find a comfortable spot for Stubbs to exploit his skills.

He has a valuable skill set as he’s hit 20 homers and stolen 40 bases in a major-league season, but along with his batting average, those numbers have decreased in recent seasons. But let’s take a closer look to see what he might do in Cleveland.

The Good

Stubbs has stolen at least 30 bases in each of the past three seasons and finished in the top-10 in the National League in that category each year.

He averaged 18.5 homers in 2010-11 and was on pace to be there again if only his batting average had been good enough to avoid being benched at times by the Reds. He hit .267 with a .323 on-base percentage in 42 games after getting called up in 2009,  but those numbers have dropped off each season.

That drop-off was surprising considering his minor league success when he hit at least .268 with an on-base percentage of .353 in all three full seasons.

So he has shown the ability, in both the minors and majors, to hit for power, steal bases, and get on base, but hasn’t done that consistently in the last few years.

Sounds like a guy in need of a new team and a new league to get a jolt of confidence and that is just what Stubbs got this offseason.

The Bad

Stubbs’ batting average dropped exactly 12 percentage points in each of his first three seasons, from .267 to .255 to .243. Then it went off a cliff last year when he hit .213.

His on-base percentage was in the .320s during his first three years before falling to .277. His slugging percentage fell from .444 to .333 in just two years which helped his OPS fall from .773 to .610.

One thing that has remained consistent his his strikeouts, as he has 588 whiffs in 486 major-league games, a scary stat that it is hard to imagine gets much better.

The Final Verdict

At just age 28, Stubbs should be able to improve his stats across the board in all categories but strikeouts, which are probably destined to hover around 200 in a full season.

The trade to Cleveland seems to come at the perfect time for Stubbs, who has the skills to be a 20-homer, 40-steal guy.

Cleveland won’t need Stubbs at the top of the order because it has Jason Kipnis and Asdrubal Cabrera and he’s probably best fit to bat fifth or sixth. That could cut down on his steals, but he should still steal at least 30 bases wherever he falls in the line-up and batting fifth or sixth should boost his RBI total.

The middle of Cleveland’s order isn’t exactly imposing with Carlos Santana, Michael Brantley, and possibly Nick Swisher, so it is possible the Indians could try hitting him third and that would be a boost for his fantasy stock if he can hit well enough to stay there.

Mims’ Projection Range for Drew Stubbs