The fine folks at PredictionMachine.com have taken the time to simulate the Super Bowl XLVII matchup between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens an impressive 50,000 times.
After looking through the stats of the simulation, the 49ers appear to be the likely winner of Super Bowl XLVII by an average score of 28-21. San Francisco won 66.9 percent of the PredictionMachine matchups, but you cannot count out the Ravens on the actual game day.
Throughout the simulations, San Francisco held the edge in nearly every matchup on the field. The only places Baltimore had the edge was their passing game against the 49ers pass defense, but according to the analysis, the running game could be the difference. If Baltimore is able to get Ray Rice rolling, they could change the outcome of what many predict to be a San Francisco win.
Here is what Prediction Machine’s Paul Bessire had to say about Ray Rice’s impact on the game:
"This really goes to all three key running backs for the Ravens – Rice, Pierce and Leach. As we discovered, San Francisco has only really struggled against teams that could run against them. Rice is a good all-around player who can take over and win some games – vs. New England, at San Diego, vs. New York Giants and vs. Indianapolis – but he can also disappear for stretches. The running game’s success is paramount to the Ravens’ chances of winning this game. And as important as that is, Rice still plays a vital role in the passing game as a short outlet for Flacco when the deep routes are covered."
Simulators are always a fun way to preview the action, however, it’s important to remember that there is a reason they actually play the game. Computers may heavily favor the 49ers, but they can’t account for the emotion that the Ravens will be playing with as they try to give their leader’s career with a storybook ending.
Who do you think will leave New Orleans adding another Lombardi Trophy to their trophy case? Let us know in the comments section and feel free to provide any predictions of your own.
Here are the stats from the simulation:
Picks (from 50,000 games):
|Baltimore Ravens Win%||33.1%|
|San Francisco 49ers Win%||66.9%|
|Straight Up Pick||San Francisco 49ers|
|Current Spread||SF -3.5|
|Against the Spread Pick||San Francisco 49ers -3.5 (59.7%)|
|O/U Pick||Over (53.7%)|
Team Stats (avg. from 50,000 games):
San Francisco 49ers
|Close Win% (3 or less)||6.7%||7.2%|
|Sacked Yards Lost||14.2||14.4|
Player Stats (avg. from 50,000 games):
Baltimore Ravens Passing
San Francisco 49ers Passing
Baltimore Ravens Rushing
San Francisco 49ers Rushing
Baltimore Ravens Receiving
San Francisco 49ers Receiving