2013 Fantasy Baseball Profiles: Brandon Belt
Photo courtesy of John Pastor
Heading into both the 2011 and 2012 seasons, I heard people mention the name of Brandon Belt as a nice sleeper pick at first base.
I have to admit, it seemed a little odd to me, especially in 2012, when he was more of a known quantity. As a fan of the Giants, I like Belt a lot a lot and have no problem with him as the team’s first baseman. It seemed to work out okay last October, after all. But when taking a look at Belt, I’ve asked myself this question: Is he a better at real baseball than fantasy?
Good real players play good defense, move runners along with bunts or timely hit-and-runs. The problem is that that stuff barely makes a dent on your fantasy team.
Headed into 2013, I’ve known that I wanted to write something on Belt, but I haven’t heard as much about him from friends, rivals, experts, or anything. So, I wanted to get a grasp on what people were saying. Naturally, I went to the Worldwide Leader first. This is what I found on Belt’s fantasy baseball profile page.
"It’s the old chicken-or-egg debate: Are Belt’s struggles over his first two seasons a product of limited playing time, or is it that his struggles continue to persuade Bruce Bochy to keep on the handcuffs? Whichever it is, Belt continues to make tiny advances as a hitter, but his power has fallen considerably short of where it was in the minors — he belted 24 homers across four levels in 2010 alone. He’s a walker, boasting a 10.9 percent rate in his two seasons for the Giants, and he strokes a lot of line drives, sporting a 22.3 percent in 2012. He also lacks a steep platoon split. Last season, he had a .786 OPS against right-handers and .768 versus lefties, meaning this should be the year the Giants finally let him shine as an every-day first baseman. That appears to be the plan for now, and considering Belt’s skills make him look like a safe source of batting average, runs and RBIs with a decent contribution in steals, fantasy owners should take a look at him late in the hopes that maybe the power comes."
That’s what I see in Belt when I look at him. He is developing as a hitter and barring injuries, he’ll be the team’s first baseman. Really, I wouldn’t even worry about them moving Buster Posey to play first in some games to keep him fresh. When they do that, I’d guess that Hector Sanchez would catch, and Belt would move to left field most of the time. The Giants aren’t the World Series champs because of their offense, they’ll need to maximize their offensive potential as often as possible and generally speaking, keeping Andres Torres or Gregor Blanco on the bench is a good way to do that.
The problem comes with the power. AT&T Park hasn’t exactly been friendly for power hitters not named Barry Bonds. Actually, it’s been downright dismal. Since AT&T Park opened its doors in 2000, could anyone guess how many lefties have hit 20 homers as a Giant, other than Bonds?
Ready?
One. Aubrey Huff slugged 26 homers for the Giants in 2010.
The next best thing would be Jose Cruz Jr. (20 in 2003), Ray Durham (26 in 2006), and Pablo Sandoval (25 in 2009 – 23 in 2011), who were all switch hitters and naturally took most at-bats from the left side.
Right field in AT&T Park is just a death trap. Not only is it 421 feet to right-center field, but you’re frequently going against the wind, AND trying to launch it over a 24-foot wall. Immediately down the line is a short porch, but the natural wind of the park blows the ball towards the power alley. When you factor all of that in with San Francisco’s cold nights, you’re just not looking at a field that yields many long balls.
So then you have to ask yourself this question. Even if he joins Bonds and Huff as the only Giants lefties to slug 20 homers while playing half of his games in San Francisco, how much is he going to break it by? You can be as optimistic as you’d like, but you won’t get more than about 22 homers out of Belt in a fantastic year.
But obviously it’s not all about the long ball. What about the rest? Smart money would have the Giants batting Belt sixth in 2013 with an outside crack of him moving to five if Hunter Pence struggles. That would make some sense, as the Giants could stagger the lefties and righties a little better that way.
If history repeats itself, the five-hole in the San Francisco order is a pretty good RBI spot. Despite struggling with the Giants, Pence drove in 45 runs in 59 games in San Francisco. Extrapolate that out to a full year and you’re looking at about 120. But again, Pence is a righty, Belt is not. The park’s a little bit more geared for him to drive the ball and get something for it.
Now, Belt can steal you some bases, but not enough to significantly bolster his value, as it’s doubtful he’ll approach 20.
At first base, you need something to be extraordinary, or everything to be above average. Belt doesn’t have that. With his power numbers, he’d need to be close to .320 to be a really valuable player at first base, and that would be a massive leap.
We have Belt as our 20th best first baseman in our Draft Kit. Let him prove that he can do it in the regular season before adding him onto your team. Unless you’re in a really deep league, he’ll be available in free agency. If he’s not, someone much better will be.