2013 Fantasy Baseball Player Profiles: Pedro Alvarez

Photo courtesy of Jon Dawson.

Just for a bit of background, I am in one of those auction leagues where you can keep a guy at his original price for three years, or extend him for $5 per year after the second season.

After Pedro Alvarez had 16 homers and 64 RBIs in just 95 games in 2010, his owner extended him two years. After Alvarez hit .191 with four homers in 2011, that same owner cut Alvarez before the end of his contract despite a penalty that cost him both in his auction budget and league fees. He decided the quick demise of Alvarez was worth whatever it cost to get him off his roster.

So Alvarez went for $3 last year in our auction, and at the end of the season I made a trade for him in our keeper league. So as of now, he is slated to be my starting third baseman.

Good move or bad? We will find out soon, as Alvarez has put together three different seasons, making him unpredictable.

His 2010 season was a nice debut for a No. 2 overall pick in 2008. His second season was a disaster that resulted in him getting sent back to the minors. Then 2012 was a nice bounce-back season as he hit .244 with 30 home runs, but still left plenty of potential for the former top prospect in the minors.

Pros

Alvarez seems like a lock to hit 30 home runs each season. He would have done it in his first season if he had played the whole year and he reached 30 homers last year when he was finally an everyday third baseman.

He hit nearly 40 homers in less than 200 games in the minors before his arrival in Pittsburgh, so there is no reason to doubt the power.

For the first time in his career, Alvarez enters this season as a lock to be the everyday third baseman in Pittsburgh. That should result in 30-35 homers and 75-80 RBI whether he improves his average or not, and those numbers could be even better if he ever hits for a decent average.

Cons

The batting average is a concern.

Alvarez hit .256 in his first trip around the majors, .191 the second time, and .244 in year three. You would like to see him at least get back to that 2010 average, but that seems unlikely considering what he has done the last two years.

If you draft him for his power potential, you need to be prepared to have a .240 hitter on your roster all season. At age 26, Alvarez is a legit home-run hitter, but one with too many strikeouts and not enough base hits.

Alvarez had 180 strikeouts last year, bringing his three-year total to 379 in 1,107 career at-bats. So again, if you are drafting him for his power, realize that you are also getting a guy likely to strikeout once in every three at-bats.

Overall Outlook

This should be the most comfortable Alvarez has been entering a season. He bounced back from his disaster of 2011 so the pressure would seem to be off. Nobody expects him to do much more than he did last year, but the talent is there for his average to rise and boost the rest of his statistics as well.

I think last year is the floor for Alvarez, who should be able to at least repeat those numbers and possibly begin to make his move into the upper class of third basemen.

Hopefully, he does well enough to reward me for picking him up as a cheap keeper.

Mims’ 2013 Projections for Pedro Alvarez