The Armchair Quarterback’s Guide To The NFL: Power Rankings

The Armchair Quarterback’s End Of Year Power Rankings

The NFL offseason is about to get into full swing. In fact, as I’m typing this the news of the first few cuts made by some NFL teams have already started to trickle in. Before rosters start to turnover, free agency gets going, and the NFL draft reshapes rosters I thought I would take a minute to rank where I think all 32 teams rank in their outlook for next season today. So, to be clear, this isn’t where teams ranked for last season (where the Texans would rank 32nd) it’s where they rank looking forward to next season before all the roster changes happen. So, without giving anything away, I actually think Houston is better off than some teams because of the core of talent that they have on their roster so I’ll be ranking them higher than there finishing place in the 2013 season was. These rankings will obviously change after free agency and the draft.

Make sense?

For any team that I have in the bottom ten slots, I apologize in advance and am sure I’ll catch flack in the comments for placing your team there. All I ask is that instead of telling me “You have my team ranked 30th! What a moron! You clearly know nothing about football!!!!!!!” please let me know WHY your team deserves to be ranked higher. Maybe I overlooked something and would love to hear your explanation.

Let’s get started.

1. Seattle Seahawks

I’m not sure how anyone could put any other team here. When you win the Super Bowl in that convincing of fashion, and have the main core of the team intact for next season you deserve the #1 spot until someone knocks you off that perch. The Seahawks have a few things to take care of this offseason, but the bad news for the rest of the NFL is that I sense players are willing to take less to play for Seattle and Pete Carroll than they could get to go elsewhere. Eventually, a big time contract for Russell Wilson will limit their spending, but until that happens this will continue to be one of the deepest and most talented rosters in the NFL.

2. San Francisco 49ers

There were a lot of west coast NFL fans that were trumpeting the NFC Title Game as the true Super Bowl. It turns out they were absolutely correct. The 49ers are absolutely talented enough to knock Seattle off that top spot, but their overall roster is a little older and Colin Kaepernick’s contract is due to be upped before Wilson’s. This puts them slightly behind Seattle, but they are absolutely a threat to win it all next season.

3. Denver Broncos

It seems hard to put the Broncos here given the beating they took in the Super Bowl, but the fact remains that they dominated the AFC last season and unless Peyton Manning gets bad news from the doctor this offseason, they’ll be the overwhelming favorite to come out of the AFC again next year. They may lose Eric Decker, but it’s clear that Demaryius Thomas is the star of that receiving core. Also, don’t forget that Denver was without it’s best defensive player (Von Miller) and best cover corner (Chris Harris) for the Super Bowl.

4. New England Patriots

The most impressive thing about the Patriots 2013 season is how they managed to get as far as they did when SO much went wrong. Aaron Hernandez goes to jail, Vince Wilfork injured, Jarrod Mayo injured, Gronk injured, the revolving door of WRs that Tom Brady had to work with, the hits just seemed to keep coming. If New England gets healthy and gets Brady some new weapons to work with this team will be a real threat to dethrone Denver atop the AFC.

5. New Orleans Saints

It was a tough decision between New Orleans and Carolina here. They are both great teams, but in terms of which team I trust to be a more consistent winner, I’m going to go with the QB and coach that I trust more and that edge has to go to Drew Brees and Sean Payton. Also, the attitude that Rob Ryan brought to that defense was impressive. They gave the Seahawks a run for their money in Seattle in the playoffs. Don’t count them out.

6. Carolina Panthers

If Cam Newton can become a more consistent player this team can vault right up to the top of this list with Seattle and San Francisco. Their defense is every bit as dominant, they just need Newton to take that offense to another level. They’ll need to either bring back or find a replacement for Greg Hardy who is due to hit the open market and eventually someone other than 85 year old Steve Smith will need to emerge as a reliable target in the passing game.

7. Green Bay Packers

This team was dismantled by injuries all season long and still managed to slip into the playoffs and only lost to the #2 team on this list by three points. If they can stay healthy next season and pick up another player or two on defense they are absolutely a Super Bowl contender. I consider them the final team in the “top tier” that have to be considered big time Super Bowl threats for 2014 before we see how free agency and the draft shake things up.

8. Indianapolis Colts

The loss of Reggie Wayne and the failure of the Trent Richardson deal to bolster the running game really left the success of this team riding solely on the shoulders of Andrew Luck. Despite some holes on the roster, they dominated their division and capped off their season with a dramatic come back playoff win against the Chiefs. Luck is just scratching the surface and with some more help from his teammates the future looks bright.

9. Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs 20 year playoff draught continues after that brutal collapse against the Colts in the playoffs. However, the fact that Andy Reid turned the Chiefs into an 11-5 playoff team just one year removed from a 2-14 disaster bodes well for the future. Plus, Alex Smith proved to be a good investment as he carried the load for KC in that playoff loss when Jamaal Charles went down. If they can rebuild their defense that fell apart down the stretch they could give the Broncos a run for their money especially if Peyton Manning takes a slight step back after his incredible 2013.

10. Philadelphia Eagles

Much like the Chiefs, their future looks bright after the success they had in their first year under a new head coach. While Chip Kelly’s offense may not have reshaped the landscape of the NFL in his first year, he did find some success, especially after they moved Nick Foles into the starting QB spot. You would think that a full offseason of grooming Foles for the job will only help. They could also use some upgrades on defense.

11. San Diego Chargers

The Chargers slipped into the playoffs thanks to some good fortunes and then made the most of it by bouncing Andy Dalton and the Bengals out of the playoffs. This team has two questions to answer before they’ll move up on my list. First, is Phillip Rivers back to being one of the best QBs in all of football or will the loss of Ken Whisenhunt lead to another drop off? Second, can they solidify their defense so that Rivers and the offense doesn’t have to carry so much of the load?

12. Cincinnati Bengals

Things about this team that I like: their defensive players, their RBs, WRs, and TEs, their head coach, and Hue Jackson as their new offensive coordinator. Things I don’t like: losing Mike Zimmer and having Andy Dalton as their QB. We’ll see if the defense can keep clicking w/o Zimmer, but Dalton is the biggest question mark here. I just have no confidence that he’ll ever be more than what he’s been the last couple of seasons. I have a feeling that a year from now they’ll be on the market for a new QB. If Dalton proves me wrong, they’re a Super Bowl contender, I just wouldn’t hold my breath.

13. Chicago Bears

The Bears have some major rebuilding to do on defense, but their offense looks poised to be one of the best in the NFL next season. Their offensive line woes finally seem to be fixed, Matt Forte is one of the best all around backs in the game, and Jay Cutler has two elite WRs to work with in Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffrey. If their defense can just be average they will win a lot of games with that offense.

14. Baltimore Ravens

The Ravens had a rough year. The defense had to completely rebuild after the loss of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed. Ray Rice had the worst year of his career (which he blames on playing with a hip injury) and Joe Flacco lost Dennis Pita for most of the year when he was supposed to replace Anquan Boldin as his go to target. Despite all of that, they still finished 8-8 and almost made the playoffs. If they get a little better luck next season they should find themselves back in the playoffs.

15. Arizona Cardinals

The Arizona Cardinals are a very solid team but they have three things going against them: the Seahawks, the 49ers, and Carson Palmer as their QB. Everything else is really solid. I just don’t see how a team with a QB that plays that inconsistent and turns the ball over that much can thrive in a division with two of the best defenses in football. It’s a shame because the rest of that team is very good.

16. Tennessee Titans

This is probably a little higher than others will have the Titans, but I think the Ken Whisenhunt hire was a great move and this was a team that was in contention last season before Jake Locker got hurt. If Whisenhunt can help Locker like he did Phillip Rivers in San Diego last season this team could be in business. They also need to send Chris Johnson packing.

17. New York Jets

I was convinced that the Jets would be an absolute train wreck last season and that wasn’t the case at all. Rex Ryan turned down the bravado and did his best coaching job to date. I’m one of a few that still believes that Geno Smith will be a good starting QB in the NFL. He’ll have more growing pains, but if they get him some more weapons this offseason I believe the offense will do enough when combined with Ryan’s defense to have this team fighting for the playoffs.

18. Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins are actually just an offensive line away from being a playoff caliber team on the field. However, it’s off the field that concerns me with this team. I have never been a Joe Philbin fan and the absolute train wreck that is their GM position under owner Stephen Ross makes it hard to have faith in this team. That having been said, if Philbin proves me wrong and they do rebuild their offensive line this team could absolutely make the playoffs.

19. Pittsburgh Steelers

Things I like about this team: Ben Roethlisberger and their passing game, Mike Tomlin, and their ownership and front office. Things I don’t like: their age on defense and their cap situation. They need to rebuild this roster, especially on defense, but don’t have much money to do it. However, when you have a good coach, QB, and front office you tend to win more games than you lose. How the front office manages to build this team on a budget will determine if they move up or down this list next season.

20. St. Louis Rams

The Rams could be much higher on this list if they played in another division. They’re actually a lot like the Cardinals. I like everything about them (especially their coach and defense) but the Seahawks, 49ers, and their QB make me question how far they can go. This is a make or break year for Sam Bradford. Many still believe he has what it takes, but I’m not one of them. If he proves me wrong they could definitely surprise some people.

21. Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys have enough talent on their roster to be rated much higher, but the combination of having the worst salary cap situation in the NFL and an absolute joke of a coaching situation will seriously hamper them. They basically tried to bring in new coordinators on both sides of the ball without firing the old ones. I’m sure that will work out GREAT. Jerry Jones is running this team into the ground. Maybe they’ll hit rock bottom next year and he’ll finally give up control, but I doubt it.

22. Detroit Lions

This team really has WAY to much talent to be this low but I think they really botched their head coaching hire this offseason. The Lions have had a reputation of being out of control and while I agree that they needed to move on from the sometimes volatile Jim Schwartz I don’t like the Jim Caldwell hire at all. My impression of Caldwell is that he lacks the personality to take control of an NFL locker room. They’ve gone from a coach that may have been part of the problem to one that may not be strong enough to fix it. I hope that I’m wrong, but I don’t see this going well at all.

23. Atlanta Falcons

Atlanta’s 2013 performance doesn’t justify even being this high. However, when you have Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, and Roddy White you have a chance to win just about any game you’re in. They have some work to do to rebuild their offensive line and defense, but they have the core skill position players on their roster to still do some damage. This team is still only one year removed from the NFC Title Game.

24. Buffalo Bills

This team has plenty of talent on its roster and cap space to make some moves. Like a lot of teams it will likely come down to their QB play. If EJ Manuel can take a step forward they’ll likely shoot up this list and into playoff contention. They play in a tough division though and I’m still not sure I’m sold on Manuel. I think they’ll likely be the same team they were last season, a team that can hang with anyone and will pull an occasional upset, but ultimately falls short of the playoffs.

25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This is one of the few teams that nailed its head coaching hire this offseason. I think Lovie Smith was 100% the right man for the job. I believe their defense has some great players at every level and Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson make a good one/two punch on offense. If I had more faith in Mike Glennon I might have predicted a bigger jump up this list, but until he shows me some more I put them in the same boat as Buffalo, good enough to beat anyone, but not consistent enough to make the playoffs.

26. Houston Texans

The Texans were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender this past season, but instead were arguably the worst team in the NFL. They battled injuries and lost faith in their QB and head coach. They already have a new coach and will likely draft a new QB as well. They have a lot of ground to make up before they’re seen as an AFC power again, but a lot of the talent that had them in the playoffs a couple of years ago is still here. Look for them to rebound some from their horrible 2013.

27. New York Giants

The only reason the Giants aren’t at the bottom of this list is because of Eli Manning and my belief that the two time Super Bowl champ can’t possibly be that horrible two seasons in a row. Their Super Bowl winning roster has gotten old quick and needs a major revamping. If that revamping goes well and Eli rebounds they’ll shoot up this list. If the revamping fails and Eli plays like he did last season they may have the first overall pick in 2015.

28. Cleveland Browns

The Browns are the anti-Steelers. The Steelers have a QB, head coach, and stable front office but that’s about it. The Browns have everything else but major issues at those three vital spots. If they hit the jackpot with a QB in the draft and their new coach and their front office don’t mess it up, they have the talent to win now. They must nail their first round pick and settle their QB situation, if they don’t do that then things could go downhill very quickly.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars

This low rating isn’t a sign that I think the Jaguars are headed in the wrong direction. I like Gus Bradley a lot and think that if they can find their future QB in this draft they’ll be a team on the come up. They just have a long ways to go before they are ready to run with the big boys. If they hit on a QB they’ll be a spoiler team next season and poised to compete in 2015.

30. Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are in the unfortunate position of needing a new QB and to rebuild their defense. Those two things don’t go well together. Teams that win with rookie QBs often have to lean on their defense and teams with poor defenses need star QBs to put up lots of points. I really like their hire of Mike Zimmer and think he’ll get the defense turned around eventually. If they hit on a QB then, like the Jaguars, I think they’ll be a contender in 2015, but I see a rebuilding year for them next season.

31. Oakland Raiders

This is a really hard team to predict. They have the most cap space to work with in the entire league so they are the team that will likely look the most different when the season starts. If they spend wisely they could jump up this list. If they spend like Raiders teams past they’ll likely stay near the bottom. Also, they have to decide what to do at QB. When I do power rankings again before the start of the season this is the team with the most potential to make a drastic move. Stay tuned…..

32. Washington Redskins

I have major concerns with this team. I don’t like the Jay Gruden hire at all. I think most Cincinnati fans would tell you that they are glad he’s gone and would rather have Hue Jackson calling the plays. To me, Gruden looks like a puppet coach for owner Daniel Snyder much like Jim Zorn was several years back. That didn’t go well and I don’t think this will either. Plus, their defense was absolutely horrific and must make major improvements in order to take the pressure off the offense. If RGIII rebounds they could still be a playoff contender, but I have major concerns about the Gruden hire and how he’ll run that offense. We’ve seen what happens to RGIII when things go bad and he doesn’t like what the coach is doing, and it isn’t pretty.

So there’s the list. What do you think? Did I get it right? Have I lost my mind? Is there a certain team that I drastically over or under rated? I’d love to hear your feedback in the comments section.

Now onto the Armchair Quarterback odds and ends of the week……