Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
HIGH FIVE/low five
Daily Fantasy can be quite the grind! Let us do the grinding for you with “High Five/Low Five”. Each day we help put you in the money by presenting you with FIVE of the “top-tier” plays, as well as a quick list of FIVE “value plays”. New Orleans Pelicans’ PF Anthony Davis flies high as Tuesday’s top Daily Fantasy Basketball play.
Let’s rip it up.
Point Guard: Russell Westbrook, OKC ($7,400): Yes, this will be a blowout, but I’m comfortable with Westbrook’s price here and his ability to produce the 37 FPs he’ll need to reach value.
For starters, Oklahoma City is projected to score about 120 points in this game given the spread and over/under, and Philadelphia being among the leagues worst at defending PGs, Westbrook should be able to do work even in limited run.
Second, over his last three games, Westbrook has been producing 99.5% of value on his current salary in limited run (28 mpg) against superior opponents. Expect 35-40 FPs from Westbrook, with considerable upside if by some miracle this game were to remain close.
Also consider: Tony Parker, SA ($6,700)
Shooting Guard: Tyreke Evans, NO ($5,400): Tyreke Evans received mention in yesterday’s “Low Five” section and produced 50 FPs. Amazingly, his price is still the same and he’s facing an even more inferior opponent tonight in the Los Angeles Lakers. As a result, he should be the most highly owned player tonight by a comfortable margin thus reducing any of the risk there is in playing him. The Lakers rank dead last at defending the SF position, which is where Evans will be seeing most of his run, and this game also figures to be both high scoring and hotly contested.
So, while the price isn’t really “HIGH FIVE” material, the production will be. Expect value at the very least, with 35 FPs much more likely. Also consider, Lance Stephenson, IND ($7,700) as a more traditional “HIGH FIVE” type play.
Small Forward: LeBron James, MIA ($11,200): LeBron was insane last night and will need to play big again on Tuesday in what should be a closely contested game vs. the Houston Rockets. Not that the matchup really needs to be considered when talking about LeBron, but it certainly can’t hurt that Houston has ranked near the bottom third in the league at defending the SF position for much of the year. Don’t expect the 74.9 FPs from last night, but stomach the price and expect something in the 50-55 FP range.
Paul George, IND ($8,900) is also worth consideration as a cheaper option in a plus matchup vs. the Golden State Warriors for tourney rosters.
Power Forward: Anthony Davis, NO ($9,400): Davis has played horribly in his last two games, and may not be that highly owned as a result. Whatever. Every day is a new day in Daily Fantasy, and sometimes you just have to forget and move on.
Such is the case with Davis tonight as he faces the Los Angeles Lakers. As stated prior, this game should be high scoring and competitive throughout, which should only help Davis to get the 47 FPs he’ll need to achieve value tonight against a defense that ranks dead last vs. opposing PFs on the season and just 28th over the past 15 days. Barring his avoidance of foul trouble, 40-50 FPs seems likely for the big man from New Orleans.
Center: Dwight Howard, HOU ($9,200): After watching Al Jefferson assault the Miami Heat last night, we have to feel pretty good about paying the price for Howard tonight. While Howard doesn’t quite possess the offensive skill of Jefferson, nor command the same share of his team’s offense, he’s no slouch and a much better rebounder, with a far greater defensive presence. 46 FPs represents the value point for Howard and seems well within range. Roster Howard for the 40 FP floor and don’t be surprised if he scratches past 50 FPs.
Note: Dwight Howard is listed as a GTD for tonight. While I like DeAndre Jordan, LAC ($8,300) vs. Phoenix, I’m thinking that I’d probably play Spencer Hawes, CLE ($6,300) in the event that Howard is out. If Howard can’t give it a go, I really like Terrence Jones, HOU ($5,800) as a mid-range play at PF and Omer Asik, HOU ($3,500) as a punt at center.
Mandatory Credit: Steve Dykes-USA TODAY Sports
Point Guard: Tony Wroten, PHI ($5,400): Aside from his last game, Wroten has been scoring 25 FPs consistently, which puts him right in range of the 27 FPs he’ll need for value tonight against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Also worth a look for the same price, is Darren Collison, LAC ($5,400). If you’re looking for a little more of a value play, George Hill, IND ($4,700) should be able to get 20-25 FPs vs. the Golden State Warriors.
Shooting Guard: Kent Bazemore, LAL ($4,400): With just 22 FPs needed to reach value, and an average higher than that over the last six games, it’s fair to assume that Bazemore, a “Low Five” veteran, will hit his threshold against the New Orleans Pelicans this evening. His teammate, MarShon Brooks, ($3,600) should also reach tonight on a near minimum salary.
Small Forward: Wesley Johnson, LAL ($4,900): Yet another player with repeat appearances here in the “Low Five”, Wesley Johnson has had three straight games over 30 FPs and with a value threshold of just 24.5 FPs, it’s safe to assume that he’ll give us what we need and be worth every penny of his salary once again.
Matt Barnes, LAC ($4,900) and Caron Butler, OKC ($4,700) are two other players that could hit value tonight, though I would consider them as better tournament plays as opposed to players I’d feel comfortable rostering in my cash games.
Power Forward: Not a lot of obvious value plays here, so I’ll mention my two favorite mid-range options: Tristan Thompson, CLE ($5,900) and Terrence Jones, HOU ($5,800). I think Thompson is the better play here, however if Dwight Howard (back) sits out, Terrence Jones would become my preferred play among the two.
Center: Alexis Ajinca, NO ($4,200): Ajinca has topped 20 FPs in four of his last six games, and will look to do so again tonight vs. a Los Angeles Lakers team that is a league worst at defending the center position. Personally, I like his chances and as such, consider him my top punt option at this position.
However, that top position does exist with a slight caveat. If Dwight Howard were to miss tonight’s game, I think Omer Asik, HOU ($3,500) becomes not only the top punt option at center, but perhaps across the board against a Miami Heat team that has struggled at defending the center spot for much of the season. One other big man who could produce above value tonight for you as a tourney play is Philadelphia Sixers center Henry Sims, ($3,800)
Thank you and good luck tonight !!!