Latest proof wins are pointless: Chicago’s Jeff Samardzija
By Todd Salem
For years now, the SABRmetric community has been attempting to persuade common folk that a pitcher’s won-loss record hardly tells much of anything.
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The reasons are pretty simple. There is so much that goes into one win that is out of the starting pitcher’s control. While he’s on the mound, there are errors committed behind him or great defensive plays made to save runs that would have scored. There is also the fluky nature of batted balls falling in for hits or not. Despite what casual fans may believe, whether a batted ball falls in for a hit is mostly out of the control of both the hitter and the pitcher. Eventually BABIP retreats towards the mean.
But a win is not just obtained while a pitcher is pitching either. In today’s game, with a complete game being so rare, much of a win comes from a team’s bullpen holding onto a lead that the starter leaves with. No matter how good the starter is through eight innings, if the bullpen blows it in the ninth, there’s no W.
The last factor is offense. A team’s offense has to score runs for the starter in order to win the ballgame. This seems blatantly obvious yet it is often one of the most overlooked factors when won-loss record is considered.
Take Chicago Cubs pitcher Jeff Samardzija. (Seriously, take him! He’s available, and he’s great!)
Samardzija currently leads the major leagues in ERA. He has a 1.08 WHIP and a winning percentage of 0.00. With a 0-4 record in 10 starts, Samardzija is bordering on historic territory if he isn’t already there. Of course, the reason is obvious: his team around him isn’t very good.
At 2.00 runs of support per game, Samardzija is tied for second-to-last in baseball, ahead of only Atlanta’s Alex Wood, who has since moved into the bullpen for the Braves.
For some comparison, Oakland darling youngster Jesse Chavez is currently receiving 6.89 runs of support per game, which sure makes winning a whole lot easier.