NCAA Football preview: AAC Conference

I love college football. LOVE it. It was my first love. One that started all the way back in 1984. I was a kid living in Oklahoma, and the Sooners were the hottest ticket in town. I was hooked. The Jamelle Holieway-Spencer Tillman-Lydell Carr option took me in and never let go.

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Fast-forward 30 years later, and I am still a college football junkie. I spend my Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and most of Tuesday watching every game I could record over the weekend. For love of the game, I guess.

For the last four years, I have picked every single 1-A vs. 1-A college football game against the spread. I will do the same this year. But leading up to that, I am going to do a conference by conference preview. That’s right, for love of the game. And for those of you that are rabid fans like I am.

Today we will start with the AAC. The order is in the order of finish last season. The conference newcomers are at the bottom in no particular order.

1. Central Florida:

Schedule: vs. Penn State at Dublin, Ireland; at Missouri, vs. Bethune-Cookman, at Houston, vs. BYU, vs, Tulane, vs. Temple, at Connecticut, vs. Tulsa, vs. SMU, at South Florida, at East Carolina

Prediction: The Knights find themselves 13th in the preseason rankings. I won’t say that I believe they will finish that high – I have my doubts – but they do have a good chance at winning the AAC.

The game at Missouri looks like a sure loss. at ECU will be difficult. They have enough returning starters on defense to keep SMU and BYU close. They may have trouble against Penn State with a new starter under center. I still see UCF winning ten games for the third straight year. I will put them at 10-2 heading into the bowls, which could be quite bold considering they lost QB Blake Bortles and RB Storm Johnson to the NFL.

Sep 14, 2013; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats receiver Shaq Washington (19) jukes a defender during the 4th quarter of the game against the Northwestern State Demons at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rob Leifheit-USA TODAY Sports

2. Cincinnati:

Schedule: vs. Toledo, vs. Miami(OH), at Ohio State, vs. Memphis, at Miami(FL), at SMU, vs. South Florida, at Tulane, vs. East Carolina, at Connecticut, at Temple, vs. Houston

Prediction: Gunner Kiel seems to have unseated Munchie Legaux at quarterback heading into the season. Kiel does have a better arm that Munchie, and that suits Tuberville’s pro style offense better. Shaq Washington and Ralph David Abernathy form a nice backfield duo. Silverberry Mouhon leads a veteran defensive line. The Bearcats have the pieces to make a run.

The only sure loss I see is at Ohio State. Every other game is winnable. Miami(FL) and SMU as back-to-back road games is tough. I say they lose at least one of those. Other than that, they have both ECU and Houston at home, and dodge UCF all together. I say the Bearcats go 9-3, but the potential is certainly there for them to go 11-1.

Jan 4, 2014; Birmingham, AL, USA; Houston Cougars quarterback John O

3. Houston:

Schedule: vs. UTSA, vs. Grambling State, at BYU, vs. UNLV, vs. Central Florida, at Memphis, vs. Temple, at South Florida, vs. Tulane, vs. Tulsa, at SMU, at Cincinnati

Prediction: John O’Korn showed flashes of brilliance last year, and should only be better this year. Deontay Greenberry heads a solid WR corps, and they have a solid offensive line. Starting a freshman at left tackle is a bit dangerous though. Every starter on defense is an upperclassman, and they were all solid last year. This is a team that could make a lot of noise. O’Korn is probably the best QB in the conference with Bortles gone.

Their out of conference schedule is weak besides the trip to BYU. They get UCF at home, but the good news ends there. They end the year at SMU and Cincinnati. Still, looking at their schedule, the only team that has the defense to give them trouble is UCF. I think Houston goes 11-1, but losing to UCF will knock them out of the top spot in the conference.

Aug 30, 2013; Dallas, TX, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs running back Prescott Line (29) carries the ball in the third quarter of the game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. Texas Tech won 41-23. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

4. SMU:

Schedule: at Baylor, at North Texas, vs Texas A&M, vs. TCU, at East Carolina, vs. Cincinnati, vs. Memphis, at Tulsa, vs. South Florida, at Central Florida, vs. Houston, at Connecticut

Prediction: I felt bad for Garrett Gilbert last year. I really did. He had no help from the offensive line. I’m afraid the same fate might befall new quarterback Neal Burcham. RB Prescott Line will help take some pressure off, but the line still has to keep the QB upright, especially in a June Jones offense. The defense was also a mess last year, and until they start playing tough on that side of the ball, the Mustangs won’t be much of a threat. On the bright side, they have nine juniors or seniors starting on defense.

You can’t say they went light on their OOC schedule. A trip to Waco could get ugly. A&M right before the fight for the Skillet with TCU is going to be tough as well. Add to that the fact that Cincy and Houston are likely better than last year, and it could be a long year in Dallas again. I like June Jones and his coaching style, but the AAC as a whole has improved, and SMU is still off the pace. I think they are headed for another 5-7 season.

Dec 7, 2013; East Hartford, CT, USA; Connecticut Huskies quarterback Casey Cochran (12) greets fans after the game against the Memphis Tigers at Rentschler Field. UConn defeated the Memphis Tigers 45-10. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

5. Connecticut:

Schedule: vs. BYU, vs. Stony Brook, vs. Boise State, at South Florida, vs. Temple, at Tulane, at East Carolina, vs. Central Florida, at Army, vs. Cincinnati, at Memphis, vs. SMU

Prediction: Casey Cochran and Max DeLorenzo return to try and improve a stagnant offense from last year. The defense had all sorts of issues last year, but most of them are back with another year of experience. Will that spell some success for the Huskies?

All of their easier games sans Stony Brook are on the road, so they could have a hard time matching last year’s total of three wins. At any rate, it looks to be another long year for the UConn football team. They don’t even get to beat up on UMass this year! I will give UConn the benefit of the doubt, and say they go 4-8.

Nov 16, 2013; Tampa, FL, USA; South Florida Bulls quarterback Mike White (14) drops back against the Memphis Tigers during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

6. South Florida:

Schedule: vs. Western Carolina, vs. Maryland, vs. North Carolina State, vs. Connecticut, at Wisconsin, vs. East Carolina, at Tulsa, at Cincinnati, vs. Houston, at SMU, at Memphis, vs. Central Florida

Prediction: Mike White is back, and he has four senior wide receivers to throw to, which should put the Bulls in a much better place than they were last year. The defense is more experienced, which also helps. They shouldn’t be nearly as bad as they were last year, but I’m not convinced that they can take a big leap either.

The Bulls get four straight home games to open the year, and they could pull off a surprise in at least one of those. More will be known after the first game, but right now I see four winnable games, and two more that they have a chance in. I will split the difference and say that they go 5-7.

Nov 23, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Temple Owls quarterback P.J. Walker (11) looks to pass during the third quarter against the Connecticut Huskies at Lincoln Financial Field. UCONN defeated Temple 28-21. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

7. Temple:

Schedule: at Vanderbilt, vs. Navy, vs. Delaware State, at Connecticut, vs. Tulsa, at Houston, at Central Florida, vs. East Carolina, vs. Memphis, at Penn State, vs. Cincinnati, at Tulane

Prediction: P.J. Walker threw 20 TDs last year as a freshman, and leading rusher Kenneth Harper are back to lead the offense. The Owls moved the ball at times last year, but had trouble putting points on the board. That shouldn’t be nearly as much of an issue this season, but the defense is still a question mark.

I see six, possibly seven games that the Owls could win. That said, I see four certain losses, and five more that could go that way. 6-6 is a real possibility, but I’m going to err on the side of caution and say 5-7.

Dec 7, 2013; East Hartford, CT, USA; Memphis Tigers head coach Justin Fuente watches from the sideline as they take on the Connecticut Huskies in the second quarter at Rentschler Field. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

8. Memphis:

Schedule: vs. Austin Peay, at UCLA, vs. Middle Tennessee State, at Mississippi, at Cincinnati, vs. Houston, at SMU, vs. Tulsa, at Temple, at Tulane, vs. South Florida, vs. Connecticut

Prediction: They return the QB, RB, and both leading receivers from a one win team last year. At least there will be some continuity here.

The schedule is tough once again, but they have a good chance to close the season on a high note. Their last two home games are winnable. I say they go 2-10, which is a marginal improvement from last year.

Dec 1, 2012; Tulsa, Ok, USA; Tulsa Hurricanes linebacker Jake Sizelove (53) – wide receiver Malachi Blankenship (5) and quarterback Dane Evans (9) wait for a call during a game against the University of Central Florida Knights at Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Tulsa defeated UCF 33-27 in overtime to win the CUSA Championship. Mandatory Credit: Beth Hall-USA TODAY Sports

9. Tulsa:

Schedule: vs. Tulane, vs. Oklahoma, at Florida Atlantic, vs. Texas State, at Colorado State, at Temple, vs. South Florida, at Memphis, vs. SMU, at Central Florida, at Houston, vs. East Carolina

Prediction: Cody Green and Trey Watts are both gone, leaving huge holes in the offense. Dane Evans did play enough last year that not everything will be new for him, and the return of Keevan Lucas should help. At least he will have someone to throw to. The offensive and defensive lines both struggled last year. Now Tulsa moves to the slightly tougher AAC without their two best players. The prognosis is not good.

There are only five games that look like certain losses, but there are five more that would need the Golden Hurricane to play a very good game. I’m not sure that happens. The easiest game on their schedule is probably Memphis, and that is on the road. I’m saying 1-11, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they go winless.

10. East Carolina:

Schedule: vs. North Carolia Central, at South Carolina, at Virginia Tech, vs. North Carolina, vs. SMU, at South Florida, vs. Connecticut, at Temple, at Cincinnati, vs. Tulane, at Tulsa, vs. Central Florida

Prediction: Shane Carden had an oustanding year last year, and was one of the best non-BCS quarterbacks. Need proof? Go watch the thumping they put on the Tarheels in Chapel Hill last September. His favorite receiver, senior Justin Hardy also returns. They will have a new running back, but honestly, this team doesn’t run much anyway. All of the starting 11 on defense are upperclassmen, and this was a stout unit last year. Maybe with the Pirates joining the AAC, they might actually get some respect. This is a dangerous team!

The only game in which they are really overmatched is the one at South Carolina. North Carolina is better than last year, and wants some revenge, so that could be a great game. As for the conference games, they get favorite UCF at home for the last regular season game. It could be for the AAC title. I see them finishing 10-2 at worst!

Nov 30, 2013; Houston, TX, USA; Tulane Green Wave quarterback Nick Montana (11) looks for an open receiver during the second quarter against the Rice Owls at Rice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

11. Tulane:

Schedule: at Tulsa, vs. Georgia Tech, vs. Southeast Louisiana, at Duke, at Rutgers, vs. Connecticut, at Central Florida, vs. Cincinnati, at Houston, vs. Memphis, at East Carolina, vs. Temple

Prediction: Is it really true that Joe Montana’s son Nick might not start in his senior year? Reports out of New Orleans indicate just that. Redshirt freshman Tanner Lee is expected to start for the Green Wave. It’s almost like blasphemy! The Wave will have a young offense outside of receivers Justyn Shackleford and Xavier Rush. Keep an eye on how the QB situation works out. After all Montana did lead them to a winning season last year.

The AAC is a different animal than CUSA, and Tulane has a tougher OOC schedule this year. That could keep them from a winning record. That said, they have all the easy games except for Tulsa at home. I say Tulane goes 6-6, and might even make it to another bowl!

Projected finish:

East Carolina

Central Florida

Houston

Cincinnati

Tulane

SMU

Temple

South Florida

Connecticut

Tulsa

Memphis

Come back all week for the other conferences!

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