NCAA football: Big 12 preview

I love college football. LOVE it. It was my first love. One that started all the way back in 1984. I was a kid living in Oklahoma, and the Sooners were the hottest ticket in town. I was hooked. The Jamelle Holieway-Spencer Tillman-Lydell Carr option took me in and never let go.

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Fast-forward 30 years later, and I am still a college football junkie. I spend my Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and most of Tuesday watching every game I could record over the weekend. For love of the game, I guess.

For the last four years, I have picked every single 1-A vs. 1-A college football game against the spread. I will do the same this year. But leading up to that, I am going to do a conference by conference preview. That’s right, for love of the game. And for those of you that are rabid fans like I am.

This piece will focus on the Big 12. Teams are in the projected order of finish. The AAC is here. The Coastal division is here. The Atlantic division is here.

Knight had the game of his life in the Sugar Bowl against Alabama. Can he do it over a full season? Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

1. Oklahoma:

Schedule: vs. Louisiana Tech, at Tulsa, vs. Tennessee, at West Virginia, at TCU, vs. Texas at Dallas, vs. Kansas State, at Iowa State, vs. Baylor, at Texas Tech, vs. Kansas, vs. Oklahoma State

Prediction: The Sooners lost a lot of talent on offense. WRs Jalen Saunders, Lacoltan Bester, and Jaz Reynolds are gone. RBs Brennan Clay, Damien Williams, and Roy Finch are gone. The hardest to replace will be FB Trey Millard. He was a huge part of the offensive scheme in his four years there. The news that Dorial Green-Beckham will not be eligible this year after being kicked off the team at Missouri hurts the Sooners as well. Sterling Shepard is a star at WR, but next most experienced reciever is Durron Neal, who caught 13 passes last season. With Joe Mixon being arrested on assault charges, that means that Keith Ford will be the starting running back. He didn’t gain much experience behind the three seniors last year, but when he did play, he looked good. Trevor Knight had an up-and-down season as a redshirt freshman, but burst on the scene with a monster game vs. Alabama in the Sugar Bowl. He needs to produce like that all season for the Sooners to win the Big 12. The defense lost CB Aaron Colvin and LB Corey Nelson, but they still have more talent than they have in recent years. DE Charles Tapper, LBs Eric Striker and Dominique Alexander all were monsters last year, and will be again. The secondary is unproven, but the talent seems to be there.

I want to believe that the Sooners can run the table and earn a trip to the playoff, but I have my doubts. Baylor destroyed the Sooners last year, and didn’t lose much from that high powered offense. However, that game is in Norman, and so is Bedlam. The stage is set for a magical season, with TCU being the toughest true road game. I think the Sooners can finish 12-0, but everything has to go right. The inexperience at WR behind Shepard and the secondary behind Zack Sanchez is concerning enough for me to say they lose one. I’m saying 11-1, with a trip to the playoffs!

Petty will be a Heisman favorite with Baylor this year. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

2. Baylor:

Schedule: vs. SMU, vs. Northwestern State, at Buffalo, at Iowa State, at Texas, vs. TCU, at West Virginia, vs. Kansas, at Oklahoma, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Texas Tech at Jerry World, vs. Kansas State

Prediction: I would not be a bit surprised if Baylor won the Big 12 again. They are that good. The loss of RBs Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin hurt a little. As does the loss of WR Tevin Reese, but there is enough returning to this offense for them to be every bit as good as last year. All conference QB Bryce Petty leads the way with his favorite receiver Antwan Goodley also returning. RB Shock Linwood is nearly as good and elusive as Seastrunk was. This offense won’t miss a beat. They lost S Ahmad Dixon and CB Demetri Goodson to the NFL, so the secondary may be a bit of a question mark.

Every game is winnable for the Bears. The trips to Norman and Austin will be tough, but if the defense holds up, this will again be an electrifying offense. I see Baylor going 11-1, but losing the head to head meeting with the Sooners.

Lockett could lead the nation in all purpose yards. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

3. Kansas State:

Schedule: vs. Stephen F. Austin, at Iowa State, vs. Auburn, vs. UTEP, vs. Texas Tech, at Oklahoma, vs. Texas, vs. Oklahoma State, at TCU, at West Virginia, vs. Kansas, at Baylor

Prediction: John Hubert is about the only major loss on offense. Do everything WR Tyler Lockett leads the way along with solid QB Jake Waters. DeMarcus Robinson, whose career high is 21 rushing yards, will fill Hubert’s role. They lost the heart of their defense in S Ty Zimmerman, but they have enough returning that they should still be pretty tough on that side of the ball. They don’t have a single underclassman starting on defense.

The trips to Auburn, Baylor, and Oklahoma make this schedule a very tough one for the Wildcats. And they scheduled another 1-AA heavyweight to open the season in Stephen F. Austin. I’m not saying that they will lose that game like they did with North Dakota State last year, but SFA is certainly not a cupcake either. This defense should keep the Wildcats in most games, and I really wouldn’t be all that surprised if they won ten games. The safe bet is 9-3, so I will go with that.

If Ash can stay on the field, Texas has a shot at winning the conference. Mandatory Credit: Jim Cowsert-USA TODAY Sports

4. Texas:

Schedule: vs. North Texas, vs. BYU, vs. UCLA at Jerry World, at Kansas, vs. Baylor, vs. Oklahoma at Dallas, vs. Iowa State, at Kansas State, at Texas Tech, vs. West Virginia, at Oklahoma State, vs. TCU

Prediction: If David Ash can stay on the field, Texas could find themselves at or near the top of the Big 12. They have good receivers in Jaxon Shipley, John Harris, and Marcus Johnson. RB Malcolm Brown is an absolute beast. Backup Johnathan Gray is no slouch either. The loss of Jackson Jeffcoat hurts the defense, but Cedric Reed is still on the other end, and CB Quandre Diggs is one of the best in the country. The rest of the defense is solid. Don’t expect a debacle like last year’s loss to BYU to happen to Texas this year.

Texas has a pretty difficult OOC schedule, and in-conference they have a couple of tough areas as well. Such as Baylor and Okalhoma back-to-back. That said, their two toughest games are at “neutral” sites, and they get Baylor at home. The UCLA game will be a good litmus test as to where the Longhorns are in the post-Mack era. Unfortunately for me, I don’t get the luxury of seeing that before I pick. I will say the Horns go 8-4. But they certainly have the potential to win ten or more.

Carter becomes the leader of the TCU defense this year. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

5. TCU

Schedule: vs. Samford, vs. Minnesota, at SMU, vs. Oklahoma, at Baylor, vs. Oklahoma State, vs. Texas Tech, at West Virginia, vs. Kansas State, at Kansas, at Texas, vs. Iowa State

Prediction: Casey Pachall is gone, but I honestly think they were better for the most part with Trevone Boykin under center. Leading rusher B.J. Catalon is back as well. They have three good receivers in Ja’Juan Story, Josh Doctson, and David Porter. The offense should be better than it was last year, especially operating behind an experienced line. The loss of CB Jason Verrett and S Elisha Olabode leaves them a little thin on experience in the secondary, but S Sam Carter is as good as they come. CB Ranthony Texada is the only question mark on the stout defense.

They get both Oklahoma schools and K-State at home, but have to travel to Austin and Waco. They also get Oklahoma and Baylor back to back in early October. Still, the potential is there for TCU to win ten games. Minnesota won’t be a pushover, and no one really knows what to expect from Oklahoma State, so the middle of the Big 12 might as well be drawn out of a hat in the preseason. I will take TCU at 8-4

Walsh needs to be a leader for the Cowboys to have any chance this year. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports

6. Oklahoma State:

Schedule: vs Florida State at Jerry World, vs. Missouri State, vs. UTSA, vs. Texas Tech, vs. Iowa State, at Kansas, at TCU, vs. West Virginia, at Kansas State, vs. Texas, at Baylor, at Oklahoma

Prediction: J.W. Walsh showed some good things last year before losing his job, but in order for the Cowboys to be relevant, he needs to be consistent. That has always been an issue. Desmond Roland could have a big year with the backfield all to himself this year. Walsh will be without the services of last year’s leading receivers Josh Stewart and Tracy Moore. The new receivers will learn on the fly, which is not good considering their first game is against the number one team. Losing CB Justin Gilbert to the NFL leaves a huge hole in the secondary, where they also lost safeties Daytawion Lowe and Shamiel Gary. Linebackers Shaun Lewis and Caleb Lavey are also gone. The defensive line is very good, but there are some questions behind them, especially in the secondary. That is not a good thing in this conference.

The Cowboys have it rough, even though they don’t travel more than 400 miles for a game this year. They get Texas at home, but are at Baylor and Oklahoma back to back at the end of the year. I’m guessing their last four will be against ranked teams, and they draw the Seminoles in the opener. Given how tough their schedule is in spots, 7-5 seems like a good year.

Webb could put up video game numbers in this offense. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

7. Texas Tech:

Schedule: vs. Central Arkansas, at UTEP, vs. Arkansas, at Oklahoma State, at Kansas State, vs. West Virginia, vs. Kansas, at TCU, vs. Texas, vs. Oklahoma, at Iowa State, vs. Baylor at Jerry World.

Prediction: The loss of TE Jace Amaro and WR Eric Ward could give their offense a different look, but I don’t think they will slow down much. Davis Webb will still be chucking the ball all over Lubbock and surrounding areas. It doesn’t really matter who he has to throw to, does it? The front seven is experienced and tough, especially the linebackers. The secondary is kind of young, and they will be kept on their toes by the offenses in this conference. The defense is decent, and the offensive scheme is good, but I don’t see any one thing that stands out.

The OOC slate is easy, so that should allow Tech’s offense to get rolling before the conference opener in Stillwater. Games at K-State and TCU are winnable, but they would have to play very well in places where that is hard to do. If Tech ere to make a run, they have a lot going for them. They get Baylor at a neutral site, Texas and home, and Oklahoma at home. They could surprise some people and finish in the top half of the conference. I’m not a big believer though. I think the defense will struggle, and the offense will struggle to run the ball well. I see a 6-6 season ahead for the Red Raiders.

Richardson showed flashes of brilliance last year, but he needs to be consistent. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

8. Iowa State:

Schedule: vs. North Dakota State, vs. Kansas State, at Iowa, vs. Baylor, at Oklahoma State, vs. Toledo, at Texas, vs. Oklahoma, at Kansas, vs. Texas Tech, vs. West Virginia, at TCU

Prediction: The Cyclones return nearly all of their skill players, including talented quarterbacks Sam Richardson and Grant Rohach. They could operate a two QB system once again in Ames depending on the game situation or the hot hand. Richardson has more talent, but he has been inconsistent so far. Quenton Bundrage and Jarvis West could have good years at receiver. Keep an eye on true freshman WR Allen Lazard. He will have to work his way on the field, but he may be the best WR on the team. The line is good, the skill players are good. The defense? Well, it’s too early to tell. The Cyclones lost four starters on defense, and are starting three freshmen and four sophomores. It is a young unit with potential, but the early schedule does not favor the Cyclones.

NDSU isn’t the same team that beat K-State in the opener in Manhattan last year, but they could still give the Cyclones all they want. There is a good chance that the Cyclones won’t win a game until mid-October. It’s always tough to play in Ames, but KSU, Baylor, and Oklahoma are all much more talented. Home field advantage could come in handy late against Texas Tech and West Virginia. I still see them at no better than 4-8 right now.

Trickett may have to carry WVU on his back this year. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

9. West Virginia:

Schedule: vs. Alabama at Atlanta, vs. Towson, at Maryland, vs. Oklahoma, vs. Kansas, at Texas Tech, vs. Baylor, at Oklahoma State, vs. TCU, at Texas, vs. Kansas State, at Iowa State

Prediction: RB Charles Sims was probably their best offensive player last year, and he is gone. Clint Trickett had a couple of good games, but needs to be consistent. Senior receivers Mario Alford and Kevin White should help with that. RB is a question mark right now. Dreamius Smith should get most of the carries, but how good is he? The defense is solid, but unspectacular. In fact, you could say that about the whole team.

The Mounties have a brutal September. Even Towson will be tough, considering they are a regular in the 1-AA playoffs. Their first breather comes against Kansas. They get Oklahoma, Kansas State, and Baylor at home, but do they have the talent to hang with any of them? I’m not sure. It could be another long season in Morgantown. I see the Mountaineers at 3-9.

Ben Heeney leads an experienced defense for the Jayhawks. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports

10. Kansas

Schedule: vs. Southeast Missouri State, at Duke, vs. Central Michigan, vs. Texas, at West Virginia, vs. Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech, at Baylor, vs. Iowa State, vs. TCU, at Oklahoma, at Kansas State

Prediction: QB Jake Heaps transferred to Miami. Leading rusher James Sims graduated. That leaves WR Tony Pierson as the most experienced guy on the offense. QB Montrell Cozart saw some snaps last year, and seems to fit the system well, but RB is still a huge question mark. The defense is the strength of the team. They have all upperclassmen starting, and this is a unit that was respectable last year. If the offense can keep up, Kansas could win more than one conference game this year.

That said, they also have the potential to go 1-11. Duke is very good. CMU is near the top of the MAC. They get Iowa State at home, but I’m not sure it will help. This offense has too many question marks for me to pick them to win a conference game. Their best shot is probably West Virginia again, but that is on the road this year. I see Kansas at 2-10

Keep coming back for the breakdowns of all the major conferences!

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