MLB Rumors: James Shields will command top money in free agency
By Hayden Kane
There will be three legit, top of the rotation starting pitchers available in free agency this winter: Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James Shields.
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Of that group, Scherzer and Lester reside on the very small and elite list of true aces in all of baseball. Shields is at the very top of the next level of pitchers, a subtle but nevertheless important distinction. That has created the perception that perhaps it will take less in terms of money and years to land Shields than it will the other two pitchers.
That hypothetical possibility is quite appealing to a team like the Boston Red Sox; they did not want to go past four years and around $70 million when they talked about a contract extension with Lester this year. They might be willing to go up in terms of the dollars, but they are adamant that they do not want to offer more than four years to Lester, Shields, or any other pitcher.
If they think that will make Shields a good backup plan because he will take a deal that is more of a bargain, they are going to be mistaken. Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe explains:
"One emerging issue, however, is Shields may not be the bargain, second-tier guy many teams thought he would be. He’s behind only Max Scherzer and Jon Lester among free agent starters and there’s a growing feeling he won’t be confined to the four-year contract at which the Sox would like to snatch him."
This season Shields is 12-7 with a 3.38 ERA. Those numbers are great, of course, and his 3.77 FIP indicates a guy who has been that good. Still, Shields has made his reputation more with his durability than his ability to truly wipe out opponents. That perception might not be fair, but it lingers nevertheless.. As mentioned previously, the distinction between him and a true ace is subtle, but it is there.
Teams won’t feel as good about paying him for five years as they will Scherzer or Lester, but some team will end up doing it anyway if that is how the market shakes out.
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