Brandon McCarthy: Redemption, xFIP, and the AL East
Aug 31, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; New York Yankees opening pitcher Brandon McCarthy (38) in first inning against Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports
Brandon McCarthy is a longtime sabermetrics darling after altering his pitching approach to learn to keep the ball down and on the ground after heavily researching advanced pitching analytics. Despite some injury issues, McCarthy has generally impressed sabermetric fans over the last few years.
Even with mechanical adjustments, McCarthy began the 2014 season with the Arizona Diamondbacks where he had 18 mostly forgettable starts. Arizona fell out of contention and McCarthy saw his ERA balloon to 5.01.
However, the New York Yankees rolled the dice and acquired the tall right-hander for a postseason push. Some people were quite confused at the acquisition because it seemed unlikely that someone with a 5.01 at Chase Field could do anything worthwhile at the bandbox in the Bronx.
The Yankees looked beyond the ugly start and saw the forest through the trees. After a short while in pinstripes, fantasy baseball players were forced to do the same and examine Brandon McCarthy as a starter worthy of a spot on their rosters.
The Yankees gambled on McCarthy’s 2.91 xFIP, which tends to be a far better indicator of future performance over ERA. Brian Cashman saw a far better arm than the one that was displayed for the disastrous Arizona Diamondbacks.
In nine starts, Brandon McCarthy has been awesome since joining the other B-Mac (Brian McCann) in New York. Take a look at the stark differences in the tale of two cities:
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Across the board, it is evident that McCarthy’s numbers became more correlated with his xFIP when he moved to New York.
His career best strikeout rate continues to rise in New York, the excellent walk rate keeps falling, and the balls are staying in the park despite pitching in the extreme hitter’s park and division.
In New York, Brandon McCarthy features a 2.80 ERA, a 5-4 record, 6 quality starts, 60 strikeouts in 64.1 innings, and 1.20 WHIP in his ten starts are certainly worthy of a roster spot on your fantasy team.
For Brian Cashman, the Yankees, and his fantasy baseball owners, the turnaround of Brandon McCarthy should not been too shocking because of his stellar xFIP. Fortunately, McCarthy’s numbers fell in line with his xFIP once he put on the pinstripes.
Even though Brandon McCarthy has been roughed up a touch in his last two starts at Detroit and Toronto, I think he will right the ship on Saturday against Kansas City.