These managers will tell you not to ever assume anything in baseball. The same is true in the head to head playoffs.
Photo Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
It’s always important to note the differences in formats in fantasy baseball. Three leagues that I’m in  — one roto, one points, one head to head — really spotlight perhaps the biggest difference in the formats. Allow me to explain.
- Roto League: The top team has a 7.5-point lead. Realistically, it would take a collapse for him to lose at this point. Even if he does, there’s a 19-point gap between No. 2 and No. 3. At best, it’s a two-team race.
- Points League: Not even that interesting, at least at the top. There’s still a decent battle between the 2-4 teams and another between 5-6, but the championship race is over, and has been for a few weeks.
- Head to Head League: Playoffs are just starting. The top two seeds have bye weeks so I guess because they have one fewer chance to lose, they have the best chances to win. But really, the head to head playoffs is anyone’s game. You want proof? Gladly, just read on.
On Sunday night, Week 22, the regular season ended in the head to head league that Nash and I play in, the one that he referenced when talking about managing the head to head playoffs last week.
As soon as Phil Coke retired Joe Panik to end Sunday night’s Tigers vs. Giants game — and the last week of our regular season — I went to figure something out. What kind of a chance to I have of winning it all this year? More pressing, what kind of a chance do I have to even advance out of the first round of the head to head playoffs?
Although my regular season record against my Round 1 opponent is 2-0 (wins of 7-3-2 and 7-4-1), my initial assessment had myself as a slight underdog. To check this theory, I did what every good fantasy baseball player should do and checked the numbers.
Indeed, if either the Week 22 or season long numbers hold serve, my championship hopes will be over on Sunday night. It’s certainly a possibility. But as I said, I’ve beaten this guy twice this year. Granted, it was earlier in the year and things have changed a bit, but we’re not exactly talking about the Miracle on a Computer if I pull this out, even I win somewhat convincingly. How is this possible?
Well, as noted above, there are 22 regular season weeks. If you look at those season totals and divide them by 22, it shows how much things can change in a given week.
With the exception of quality starts and another that we’ll get to in a moment, only strikeouts and RBI — two high scoring categories — have a weekly difference of more than one, at least in the counted stats.
Now, that other category — saves. I guess it would surprise me if I won. After all, he has four closers: Greg Holland, Hector Rondon, LaTroy Hawkins, Jenrry Mejia, while I only have three: Santiago Casilla, Casey Janssen, Kevin Quackenbush, but he has one closer on a winning team (Holland), while I have two (Casilla and Janssen). Better still, Janssen and Rondon’s teams oppose each other and having the closer on the better team is a definite advantage. Also, two of his closers — Hawkins and Mejia — oppose each other. While that increases the chances of a save for him, it eliminates the chances that both will earn one.
So, should I lose the category? Sure, but the odds aren’t that bad.
Now, why am I writing about this? After all, is it really that important that everyone out there knows how close my specific match-up might be? No, except that it’s probably true in your case, too. Since mine is is the only match-up I have access to, it seems like the best way to show that.
If I lined up to race Usain Bolt in a 100 meter dash, I wouldn’t really fancy my chances. Heck, he could trip a few times and beat me. The head to head playoffs aren’t like that, though. They’re more like the silver medalist racing Bolt. Yes, Bolt will probably win but when you look at all that can go wrong in one race, it really wouldn’t take that much for an upset.
If you’re in the head to head playoffs, you can’t consider yourself a serious underdog. The point Nash made about not punting categories really holds true. The category you decide to punt early in the week may be one that you could have realistically won.
I don’t know what the specific numbers say in any of your leagues, but I’m guessing your match-ups are similarly close. If you were fortunate enough to make the head to head playoffs, now’s the time to focus. Even a seemingly big underdog can win and an odds on heavy favorite can lose.
If you don’t believe me, check the numbers.
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