Aaron Gordon’s Great Expectations

Jun 26, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Aaron Gordon (Arizona) is interviewed after being selected as the number four overall pick to the Orlando Magic in the 2014 NBA Draft at the Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

This article by Jordan White is cross-posted at our sister site, Hardwood Paroxysm. Check it out there, too.

In 2003, the Atlanta Hawks made one of the biggest draft blunders in recent NBA history. Desperately needing a point guard, with both Deron Williams and Chris Paul available with the second overall pick, the Hawks selected…Marvin Williams, a forward fresh off a national championship run at UNC.

By now, we know how that turned out for the Hawks. Williams is a step or two above a journeyman, while Chris Paul is of one of the best to ever play the position. Short of a ring, he’s a near-lock for the Hall of Fame (and even without it, he’ll have a great case). 

For the first few years of his career, until it became irrelevant because Paul was undoubtedly the better player, all of Williams’ accomplishments and failures were compared to those of Paul. The expectations placed upon him, by both fans and pundits alike, was to be not just the best player he could be, but a better player than Paul. It was unfair, of course. It’s not Williams’ fault that he was picked over a once-in-a-generation point guard, but expectations are rarely fair in the NBA. 

History seemed to repeat itself this summer. 

The Cleveland Cavaliers did a remarkably sensible and thus remarkably un-Cavaliers thing and selected Andrew Wiggins first. The Milwaukee Bucks followed suit by picking Jabari Parker, and the Philadelphia 76ers did a very Hinkie thing and picked Joel Embiid, foot-and-back injuries and all. 

And, there for the Orlando Magic’s taking at number four, was Dante Exum. 

Once the Sixers passed on Exum in favor of Joel Embiid, he seemed to fall, as if by divine intervention, into Orlando’s lap. There he was: the true point guard, the missing piece of Orlando’s young, intriguing puzzle. 

Yet Aaron Gordon, the high-flying forward from Arizona, was the choice (and don’t bother asking Rob Hennigan why he was the choice over Exum — Hennigan spent time with both the Spurs and the Thunder, and so has perfected the art of non-speak, that language packed with cliches, pleasantries, a bit of “aw shucks” and completely absent of any meaning), a selection met with confusion, surprise, anger, and only a bit of cheer. 

At that very moment, Gordon, much like Williams before him with Paul, became saddled with an extra load of expectations, tied specifically to Exum. Every rookie, especially lottery picks, faces lofty expectations  — often unrealistic, unfair and uncompromising — but Gordon carries a heavier burden than many of his fellow rookies.

There’s the normal expectations he’ll encounter, everything from making a defensive impact to being at least somewhat of a better shooter (These expectations also vary depending on who foists them upon Gordon. The Magic don’t expect Gordon to be a better shooter any time soon, but some fans may not be so patient). 

Then there are the Exum-related expectations: scoring as much as Exum, playing more than Exum, simply being better than him, because to not be better than him, even to be as good as him, is to be a failure, per expectations. 

It’s fine to have expectations, the key is tempering them with patience.

Preseason starts in a little over a month — the first opportunity for rookies to meet, fail, or exceed the expectations placed upon them.

Yet even that’s unjust. Preseason, by and large, doesn’t matter. However, it’s the first taste of real NBA action since the conclusion of the finals, and the first chance to see the rookies with their full team, so it’s not completely surprising that we get a bit carried away with the results. Expectations can’t be met or unmet in the span of a few mostly meaningless games. They can’t even be met within the span of an entire season.

If Gordon plays well and Exum plays poorly, that’s great. If Exum plays great and Gordon looks completely lost, that’s fine, too. Gordon’s career trajectory, his destiny as either a world-class defender or elite athlete who has no idea how to play basketball, won’t be decided so quickly. Nor will Exum’s, for that matter.

The comparison between Paul/Williams and Exum/Gordon isn’t exact, of course. Already, Gordon was a top seven pick, possessing top-flight athleticism and an advanced, inherent understanding of defense that coaches try their whole lives to teach to other players. Though he’s raw offensively, he’s certainly not without hope on that end. He’s a surprisingly good ball-handler, certainly showing the capabilities to eventually, at the very least, run a pick and roll, if not create off the bounce. His shooting, to be polite, needs work, especially his free-throws, but the foundation at least is there. 

Williams wasn’t wholly unskilled when he came out of North Carolina, but Paul was undoubtedly the better player and prospect. In the case of Gordon and Exum, it’s hard to say if Exum was absolutely, without question, the better prospect than Gordon. There was two years’ worth of film and numbers available on Paul (all of which clearly pointed to him being the superior player), while there was scarce scouting for Exum. With Gordon, there was more available — more percentages to pore over and more film to dissect — for better and for worse; better, because both fans and teams could get a better, fuller idea of Gordon as a player, and worse because his negatives were much more accessible than Exum’s. This worked in Exum’s favor, as the less full film there was to study, the more we turned to highlights, which of course did their best to hide his deficiencies.

Highlights are fun, but they’re also dangerous, as they enable us to form unrealistic expectations. They’re the basketball equivalent of a press release, perfectly packaged and edited without the nasty bits like poor shooting or bad defense. That’s why it’s wrong to measure Gordon against Exum, because the initial expectations of Exum were impractical. One could even argue that it’s only now, after seeing Exum play in summer league and the World Cup (where he could barely get off the bench for Australia) that we can even begin to form expectations for him.

Maybe it’ll be Paul/Williams all over again. Maybe it’ll turn out the other way, or maybe both players will actually become pretty good and exactly what their respective teams envisioned when they drafted them. Right now, right this minute, there’s no way of knowing.