K.J. McDaniels’ deal likely doesn’t signify a wave of the future

Sep 29, 2014; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Philadelphia 76ers forward K.J. McDaniels (14) during media day at the Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

K.J. McDaniels has been underrated for a long time.

He was underrated coming out of high school, a consensus three-star prospect that didn’t garner any offers to a high-major school.

He was underrated at Clemson, first as a freshman that earned only 304 minutes of playing time while putting up a PER of 21.1 with per-40 minute stats of 15 points, seven rebounds, and nearly four combined blocks and steals per game; then as a junior, when he was the only player in the country to lead his team in points, rebounding, blocks, steals, and three-pointers. For these well-rounded contributions, he received precisely one vote for ACC Player of the Year.

He also was underrated during the entire draft process, culminating in his slip out of the first round and selection 32nd overall by the Philadelphia 76ers.

During these periods of suboptimal recognition, McDaniels was never able to fight back against these perceptions. He simply did what he could to earn recognition: he put his head down, played hard, and showed tremendous value as a do-it wing with boundless energy and exceptional athleticism. Yesterday, he finally found a way to bet on his game, get his name into the discourse, and potentially make himself dump trucks full of money in the process.

Instead of signing the typical four year deal that the 76ers have offered to their second round picks — two guaranteed years with two team option years — McDaniels signed an unguaranteed one-year deal worth $507,000 that will allow him to hit the market after this season as a restricted free agent. With a successful rookie campaign, McDaniels could cash in far beyond his rookie peers and become one of the most highly-paid second-year players in the NBA in 2015-16.

There is some risk involved here. Obviously, it’s a non-guaranteed deal, similar to the contract that many training camp invitees sign. If McDaniels was to get hurt this season, or if he was to perform poorly, the Sixers could cut him without having to pay him. Given that the Sixers gave fellow second round pick Jerami Grant about $1.7 million in guaranteed money, this represents a fairly substantial life risk in theory.

However, given Philadelphia’s current roster construction, I’m not sure how much of a risk it is in practicality. If McDaniels was to get hurt, my guess is that the team would keep him and rehab him in order to see how he recovered next season. But if he doesn’t get hurt, there are going to be ample minutes for the taking with the Sixers’ wing situation, which is somewhere between a cavalcade of mediocrity and a parade of uninspired.

The team recently acquired Keith Bogans, but it’s unknown if he’ll ever suit up for the squad. Luc-Richard Mbah a Moute and Alexey Shved were both acquired this offseason, but neither have played effectively consistent basketball in two years. Tony Wroten was maybe the most harmful player to suit up for any NBA team last season, averaging over four turnovers to go in conjunction with his 49 percent true-shooting rate on 16 shots per-36 minutes. Elliot Williams has yet to stay healthy for a full season. The player to get most excited about on this list is Hollis Thompson, and even he was the proprietor of a sub-10 PER last year.

With those competitors for minutes, there isn’t a whole lot of downside here for McDaniels. He gets to reach free agency earlier while also having the security of being talented while on a terrible roster of wings. Even if he was to get seriously injured this year, McDaniels would still be the wing with the most upside on this team, which is a horrifying indictment of the current 76ers.

And because of that, I’m not sure how much this contract signifies a wave of the future for second round picks. McDaniels, as a player that was likely under-drafted into a situation that is unlike any other in basketball (and possibly basketball history), is a rare example of a non-first round pick that can sensibly take the potential risk of giving up guaranteed money to get to free agency faster. For him, the potential reward of the long-term guaranteed deal he could receive on the open market far outstrips the risk of giving up $1.7 million guaranteed.

It’s a tremendous stroke of luck for the budding defensive stopper. While I may think of Cleanthony Early, a wing who signed a guaranteed two-year deal with the New York Knicks, as a prospect with a largely similar upside to McDaniels, his situation does not afford him those same possibilities. With young wings Tim Hardaway Jr. and Iman Shumpert in the fold to go with established veterans Carmelo Anthony and J.R Smith, Early could suffer from a lack of playing time, and it’s highly unlikely that the Knicks consider him to be their best wing option moving forward into 2017. The same goes for Spencer Dinwiddie, a combo guard who signed a three-year deal with Detroit with only the first two seasons being guaranteed. For these players who may not be given playing time, it makes much more sense to take the money and security.

Philadelphia’s cap situation is also worth exploring here. As a team not remotely close to the cap, the Sixers do not have to worry about McDaniels’ Bird rights, or more importantly lack thereof, in a potential free agency deal next offseason. One year non-guaranteed contracts given to rookies, even though they allow for restricted free agency, do not give the controlling team the ability to go over the cap to sign the player the next offseason. Teams over the cap and contending would not be at all likely to give a second round pick a deal like this because it eschews a major portion of their control over the player. The 76ers, however, have only about $10.5 million committed to three players next offseason, meaning they have ample cap space to make sure McDaniels is taken care of if he blows up.

So while agents and players may hail this signing as a changing of the guard in reference to second round picks, I see it as more of an anomaly. It’s possible that we see a slight trend begin among players drafted to weaker teams, but overall parity throughout the league will make this largely an improbability. The McDaniels signing is a brilliant maneuver, but precious few second round picks have the type security he has.

And because of that, maybe McDaniels should finally be happy that he was underrated.