Are the Pelicans and Kings legitimate NBA playoff contenders?
By Eric Saar
Are the Pelicans and Kings NBA playoff contenders?
If the NBA season ended right now, both the New Orleans Pelicans and the Sacramento Kings would be in the playoffs. How crazy does that sentence sound? The Kings haven’t made the playoffs since 2005-06, when Brad Miller led them in win shares. The team from New Orleans (Was the Hornets, now the Pelicans) made it in 2010-11, when they had Chris Paul, Tyson Chandler and David West.
Now, the teams are led by dominant big men DeMarcus Cousins and Anthony Davis. Are these teams playoff material? We’ll look at their schedules so far, some player valuations and project things to April and see if either of these teams get in.
Schedules
Sacramento is 5-4 with a pretty impressive resume so far. They beat who they were supposed to (Denver twice) and got wins against some top teams in the West (Portland, Los Angeles, and Phoenix). The only games they lost were to even better West teams (Golden State, Oklahoma City, Dallas and Memphis).
New Orleans hasn’t played quite as well. They are 4-3 and had a couple easy wins (Lakers and Magic) with a good win over the Hornets and a last-second win over the reigning champion Spurs. Their losses were to Dallas, Memphis and Cleveland.
Both these teams’ early schedules seem to indicate where they are overall in the picture out in the Western Conference playoff race. They can beat good teams, but also can lose to bad ones. They have to have a good game offensively to come out on top. They can’t necessarily win a gritty game where they don’t play well.
Player Valuations
Cousins and Davis are both playing out of their minds for their respective teams right now. That’s both good and bad. It’s good for obvious reasons, but bad because the teams are still losing despite great performances.
Davis’ stat line is just crazy. He’s fourth in points with 24.9, first in rebounds with 12.9 and first in blocks with 4.43. Those are some great per game stats.
Cousins is nearly as good. Tenth in points with 22.1, tied for fifth in rebounds with 11.1 and not much of a blocker as he averages 1.25 per game, good for 35th.
They are both averaging double-doubles. That’s pretty good. There’s not much that wither of them can do to make their team win more. It’s up to the other starters and role players to play smarter and more efficiently, if they want to win.
Who needs to step up?
For the Kings, Jason Thompson needs to step up his game. He is playing the fifth-most minutes on the team yet has a horrible PER (player efficiency rating) of 1.3 where the average is 15. He only averages 2.8 points a game and the biggest thing he contributes… 5.5 rebounds per game for a power forward averaging that many minutes. He’s playing bad and needs to get it on track.
For New Orleans, it’s Eric Gordon. 33.7 minutes per game (fourth-highest on team) and his PER is 3.6. Unacceptable. About eight points, less than three assists and less than two rebounds a game. Just horrible. He needs to get better.
Predictions
Sacramento Kings
Despite their excellent level of play so far in this young season and the inspired, controlled and mature play of superstar center DeMarcus Cousins, the Kings will fall short of the playoffs. It’s just so stacked. Looking at the standings, right now the Los Angeles Clippers and the Oklahoma City Thunder would both be out of the playoffs, but that won’t hold. They’ll get comfortable and healthy and run off ten consecutive wins, slamming the door on their playoff chances.
One interesting caveat to the Kings’ surprising level of play is it could lower the number of games needed to make the postseason out West as they beat playoff teams. This would make the teams in the Western Conference playoffs closer together come April, making it more and more intriguing.
New Orleans Pelicans
Pelicans have a slightly lower chance of making the postseason in my book. They’ll win the occasional impressive game against an elite opponent still, there just isn’t enough talent around Davis to make that extra push. They need a much better shooting guard to replace Gordon if they want to get over the hump.
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