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Oklahoma City Thunder: Have The Injuries Already Cost Them The Playoffs?

By Eric Saar

Nov 7, 2014; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) react to a play in action against the Memphis Grizzlies at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 7, 2014; Oklahoma City, OK, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Kevin Durant (35) and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Russell Westbrook (0) react to a play in action against the Memphis Grizzlies at Chesapeake Energy Arena. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports /
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Taking a look at the Oklahoma City Thunder and their recent rash of injuries and if they can get out of the whole to make the playoffs.

The Thunder could really use their superstars, as they are just 5-12 without them. Seeing as you need in the realm of 48 wins in the Western Conference to make the playoffs, OKC has an uphill battle ahead. They will need to go 43-22 (66%) in their remaining games in order to sneak into the postseason.

Fortunately, Russell Westbrook just came back. Unfortunately, one of the best players in the league in Kevin Durant still has a while until he returns. When he had surgery on October 16th, the timetable was set at about six to eight weeks. We are a few days past six weeks with the eighth-week mark being December 16 when the Thunder play the Kings in Sacramento.

Westbrook’s return

Westbrook came back after missing time with his hand injury and came out swinging! He scored 32 points in only 24 minutes to go along with his seven rebounds and eight assists in the Thunder’s convincing 105-78 victory over the New York Knicks.

With Westbrook back, the Thunder really have a chance to win most games. And when Durant is back, they should be favored in most games. But the question is, will it be too late?

Injury troubles

The Thunder were having trouble scoring as many of their top players were out. They were second to last in the league in scoring with only 90.1 points per game.

Nov 3, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Perry Jones (3) drives the ball during the first quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 3, 2014; Brooklyn, NY, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Perry Jones (3) drives the ball during the first quarter against the Brooklyn Nets at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports /

Early in the season, they were so devastated by injuries they were missing handfuls of players at a time. At one time, they were missing reigning MVP Kevin Durant, All-Star Russell Westbrook, one of OKC’s bench scorers Jeremy Lamb, sharpshooter Anthony Morrow, swingman Perry Jones III and rookie center Mitch McGary.

They lost so many players at one time, the NBA had to grant them what is called the “hardship exception”, allowing them to go over the 15-man regular season roster limit for a time, until a couple players got healthy. They signed guard Ish Smith and ended up waiving Sebastian Telfair when the exception ran out.

Schedule going forward

The Thunder still have 65 games left. That includes 32 home games and 33 away games. Assuming Durant comes back on December 16th, OKC will play seven more games with Westbrook at the helm. They should almost certainly win five of those games, as they are against New Orleans Pelicans, Philadelphia 76ers, Detroit Pistons, Milwaukee Bucks and the Minnesota Timberwolves. The two other games are against the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Phoenix Suns. They should be 10-14 when Durant returns.

From that point, they have 58 games remaining on their slate. From then, I see them winning about 36 games and thus losing 22, putting their record at 46-36 on the season. This should just barely let them sneak into the playoffs.

Implications

The Oklahoma City Thunder being the eighth seed in the Western Conference playoffs would-be very interesting. Since they are an elite team when their big three (Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka) are healthy, it’s easy to see a scenario where they bump off the number one seed, then get to play the four/five winner.

Spinning the upside of these injuries

While no injury is good for your basketball team or the individual players, there are some silver linings.

For the superstars, Durant and Westbrook get some much needed rest. Last season in his MVP campaign. Durant tallied 3,122 minutes out on the court, which put him most in the NBA, by nearly 100 minutes. That’s a lot of wear on his body. He averaged more than 38 minutes (out of a total 48) per game. Westbrook averaged 30.7 minutes per game last year. As long as the Thunder make the playoffs, they’ll be happy their superstars are fresh.

It’s also good for the other role players to improve with more playing time and opportunity. With Westbrook, Durant and others out due to injury these players get the opportunity to expand their games. While this sometimes is a cliché, here it is true. Reggie Jackson had to learn how to be a leader, play smart with a lot of usage, Ibaka had to become a more volume scorer for a bit. These are important attributes and skills to have in the playoffs.

The third silver lining is Thunder management getting a better look at some of their younger guys down the depth chart. One example is they got to see what Perry Jones III could look like as a primary option. It looks like 32 points, 7 rebounds and 3 assists.

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