NFL: This Year’s Receivers Class Could Be One Of The Best
This rookie class of NFL wide receivers was thought to be very deep, and so far that has been true.
When the 2014 NFL Draft was over, many said the receivers class could be one of the deepest in history. Well, as we start Week 14, that has certainly been the case. Some could argue that this rookie class of receivers could end up being one of the best ever.
This class of rookie receivers have made big plays after big plays this season. Some of these players are not playing like rookies trying to feel their way around the NFL. They are playing like veterans, showing they belong with the big names.
Now, I am not going to say that this is the greatest receiving class ever, since they still have a lot more games to play before one can make that estimation. We can look at the rookie seasons and compare them to other rookie classes and how they did their first season.
There were 33 total receivers taken in 1996, and they had long and successful careers. I am not talking about championships, but just careers as receivers.That receiving class is considered by many as the best. It had 11 receivers selected in the first two rounds, Terry Glenn, Eddie Kennison, Keyshawn Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Bobby Engram, Muhsin Muhammad, Eric Moulds, Amani Toomer and David Patten. There were also two more in the later rounds that had pretty good careers — Terrell Owens and Joe Horn.
That class had seven receivers with 400+ yards their first season in the NFL.
I will compare this year’s rookie receivers class to the one in 1996.
The Monday Morning Quarterback with Peter King and numberfire.com use a metricfor analyzing players called Net Expected Points (NEP). They compare every single play to how a league-average team should perform on those plays.
Using their metric, Glenn (+110.7 NEP), Kennison (+97.7), Johnson (+88.8), Harrison (+88.1), Owens (+52.8) Engram (+44.8), Muhammad (+37.3) and Moulds (+27.8) ranked as the best rookie receivers in 1996.
The average NEP per receiver in 1996 was +66.8, which puts them at the top.
This season’s crop consists of names like Odell Beckham Jr, Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson, Martavis Bryant and John Brown.
This season’s crop of receivers compares favorably. There were also 33 receivers chosen, 12 of them in the first two rounds. Of those, 9 have 400+ yards receiving so far. Brown was drafted in the third round, and has over 400 yards. There are still four weeks remaining in the season, and there are another 2-3 players that are at the doorstep of 400 yards, and could surpass that number as well.
The 1996 class had just one receiver, Terry Glenn (1,132 yards), go over 1,000 yards. This season’s class has two receivers, Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1,214 yards) and Kelvin Benjamin of the Carolina Panthers (1,099 yards), projected to go over 1,000 yards. This is significant because since 1970, only 12 rookie receivers had 1,000 yards or more.
Let’s get back to NEP. For this season’s rookie receivers class, through Week 12, they are already at +45.2. and they are projected to equal the total of +66.8 by the 1996 group.
The 2014 class of receivers already has the most touchdown receptions by any rookie class (76) and 100-yard games (20) and is 15 receptions short of having the most receptions by a rookie class.
One great trait of the rookies of this season is their competitiveness. They knew this was going to be a great one, and they wanted to be a part of it, even if they could stay another year and be drafted higher next season. Of the 12 drafted in the first two rounds, 11 of them were underclassmen. Jordan Matthews was the only senior in that group.
“I definitely knew they were talking about (this becoming) one of the best rookie classes at receiver, and that was extra incentive,” Beckham said. “It got to the point where I had to declare, to prove that I could compete with those big-name guys.”
“We’re all hungry,” Beckham told Art Stapleton of The Record recently. “You’re fresh out of college, you’re coming out and they’re saying it’s one of the best classes and it has so much talent at the position, there’s so much hype behind it. There’s so much to live up to, that you have no choice, I think it’s something that we all embrace.
“I text those guys all the time. It’s all love – and competition.”
One of the reasons for the prolific receivers in the league is how the lower levels are now throwing so much. This is a passing league, but it used to be that the more complicated playbooks were going to come from the NFL. That is not the case. Some college offenses are as complicated (if not more) as the NFL offenses.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney talked about that to USAToday Sports. “Offensive concepts now move upward. Used to be everything came downward from the pros to
college. Things have kind of transitioned. And even colleges have to adjust to what’s going on in high school, and I think the pros have had to adjust to what’s going on in the college game. They never stop throwing and catching,”
It happens in high school and even youth football. There is a proliferation of 7-on-7 camps and tournaments that spotlight throwing and receiving a great deal more than anything else. By the time some players get to the NFL, they might have already had up to ten years of receiving experience.
Some say the NFL is transitioning into a passing league. I submit that the transition is just about over. The better teams will still have a good running game, but that running game is just used to keep defenses honest. Other teams will use screen passes and other short passes that work just like rushes.
The passing revolution will evolve, and so will the players. How much better this class of receivers will be is still unknown. For now, though, let’s appreciate what this rookie class is accomplishing.