NFL Playoff Scenarios: Each Team’s Road to the Postseason

With just three weeks left of the regular season, the playoff picture is finally beginning to become clear. Here are the NFL Playoff scenarios for each team that is still in contention.  

The NFL season is nearing its end, and there still are no teams that have clinched a spot in the postseason. That will likely change his week, when as many as three of the 12 spots in the playoffs could be claimed.

Of course with 22 teams still in contention, the possibilities remain almost endless. Each of those teams have a path to the postseason, some just have a much easier path than others do.

Here are all of the NFL Playoff scenarios, broken down by conference and then by division.

AFC Playoff Scenarios

With so many teams still in contention, there is very little clarity in the AFC playoff picture. One thing that is clear right now is that all of the 7-6 teams are one loss away from being out of the race.

On the same note, the Patriots and Broncos wont be missing the playoffs. They haven’t clinched their spot yet, but should do so with one more win. Both teams could also lose all of their remaining games and still make postseason if they get a little help along the way.

AFC East

One more win and New England clinches the NFC East. The Dolphins can still catch them, but it required that the Patriots lose all 3 of their remaining games while Miami wins all three of theirs. The Dolphins would then win the division based on their better division record.

Assuming that doesn’t happen, Miami still has an uphill battle to get in as a wild card. They almost certainly need to win all three of their remaining games to have a shot.

AFC North

All four AFC North teams are still in the hunt for for the division title. Cleveland is in fourth, but are just 1.5 games back. Due to the intra-division games, things have to fall just right for them to get into the playoffs.

That tie in the Bengals record keeps things from getting too crazy in terms of tie-breaking scenarios, since they can’t end up even with anyone else in the standings. It also gives them a half-game lead right now and the inside track to the division title.

Pittsburgh is in good shape as well, since they currently hold the tiebreakers over all of the other 5-loss teams. That isn’t going to change, provided that they win enough of their remaining for those tiebreakers to be meaningful at the end of the year.

While it is smart to not count out Baltimore, they have an uphill battle at this point. The Steelers have the tiebreaker over them, so Baltimore must be ahead of Pittsburgh by a full game at the end of the season. The Ravens have the easiest schedule of the four teams in the division, so they clearly aren’t out of the race yet.

AFC South

The AFC South could be decided on Sunday. Indianapolis and Houston play each other, and a Colts win wraps the division for them. A Houston win on the other hand, and things get really interesting.

Houston would then be only one game back with two games to go. The Colts would then have to win in week 17 against the Titans to win the division. If they win they, then they own the tiebreaker over Houston. If they lose it, then the lose the tiebreaker. Their week 16 game against Dallas would then become essentially meaningless.

Of course, none of this matters unless Houston wins all their remaining games. One loss and they’re out of the playoff picture entirely.

AFC West

Denver has a two-game lead with three to go. Only San Diego can catch them, and they need a lot of help. Denver also will own the tiebreaker over San Diego if the teams end up tied. That means that one more win and Denver will clinch the division.

San Diego is in good shape for a wild card birth though. The way the tiebreaker are shaking out, the Chargers should be in the playoff if they can get two more wins.

Kansas City’s loss to Arizona last week has them on the brink of elimination. They already cannot catch Denver in the division, and just one more loss and they’re out of the race for the wild card as well.

NFC Playoff Scenarios

Very little has changed in the NFC standing in the last week, and yet the overall playoff picture has still become much clearer. That is because there is now one less week’s worth of possible outcome that has to be considered.

The NFC is interesting because there are only six good teams. Unfortunately, only five of them can make the playoffs. The other spot will be given to the NFC South.

NFC South

The Falcons currently hold the tiebreaker over New Orleans and thus have the advantage heading into the final three weeks of the season. Of course, they still play both the Panthers and the Saints, so that could easily change.

In fact, all three teams could easily end up winning this division. First team to seven wins likely takes it.

I should probably answer a few questions that seem to come up any time this division is discussed:

• Yes, an NFC South will be in the playoffs no matter what.
• No, it doesn’t matter that the team will likely have a losing record.
• Yes, it does mean that a 10 or 11 win team will miss the playoffs so a bad team can get in.
• No, the rules aren’t going to change anytime soon.

Did, I miss anything?

NFC East

All of the real contenders in the NFC won last week except for Philadelphia. They still managed to retain their spot as the current No. 3 seed, even though lost to a red-hot Seattle team.

The problem for the Eagles is that they are now tied with the Cowboys again in the NFC East. That sets up what is essentially a winner-take-all game this Sunday between those two teams. While it is still technically possible for the loser of that game to win the division, it becomes extremely unlikely.

The loser of that game will also be stuck at nine wins. That puts them in a position where the best-case scenario is that they are still tied for the last playoff spot.

If both Seattle and Detroit win, then the loser of Cowboys-Eagles game will find themselves one game out of the playoffs with just two games remaining. If that happens, they’ll need major help to get into the playoffs at all.

NFC North

The NFC North is firmly in the hands of the Packers at the moment, but it is possible that everything will hinge on the Week 17 matchup between the Lions and Packers. If the Lions win that game, they’ll have the tiebreaker over the Green Bay.

If even if Detroit loses that game, they still make the playoff if they win their other two games. While they don’t have the tiebreaker over Seattle or Arizona, they do have it over both Philadelphia and Dallas. This means that if Detroit makes it to 11 wins, they are guaranteed to be no lower than the 6th seed.

NFC West

San Francisco’s inexplicable loss to the Raiders has them all-but officially eliminated from the playoffs. They’re now two games back with three to play. Even if Detroit, Seattle, Philadelphia, or Dallas were to have an epic collapse to finish the season, that still wouldn’t be enough to save the 49ers. They need two teams to do so if they are going to have any shot at making the playoffs this year.

Arizona seems to have saved their season last week with their win over Kansas City. They went from a team that looked like they were going to fall out of the playoff to one on the verge of clinching their spot. One more win, and they are in. There is no scenario where an 11-win Cardinals team doesn’t make the playoffs.

Seattle remains in the driver’s seat in the division even though they are currently behind Arizona. Two wins and Seattle is all-but guaranteed a playoff spot. If one of those two wins is over Arizona in Week 16, then Seattle would win the division.

The only scenario where an 11-win Seattle team doesn’t make the playoffs is an elaborate scenario where 15 games play out exactly to a script. If just one of those games doesn’t go exactly right, then Seattle would make the playoffs if they reach the 11 win mark.

Next: Ranking all 32 NFL teams by all-time greatness