NFL Championship Weekend Odds: Best bets against the spread

Jan 10, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) smiles from the field after the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots won 35-31. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 10, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) smiles from the field after the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game against the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots won 35-31. Mandatory Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports /
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New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) gets chased out of the pocket by Indianapolis Colts linebacker Erik Walden (93) at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady (12) gets chased out of the pocket by Indianapolis Colts linebacker Erik Walden (93) at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports /

Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots UNDER 54 points

Under, under and under again. We went 2-0 last week on the under side, and I’m doubling down once again here. More than 60% of the action has come in on the over thus far, but the line hasn’t budged, and if anything, it has dipped a half-point in some spots. That is a dead giveaway for sharp money on the under, and because the public is always on the over, fading the mass population is the way to go.

New England’s defense has been frisky this season, and given the likelihood of rain and gusty conditions, I trust that unit to keep Andrew Luck and his crew in check. On the other side of the ball, this smells like a game when Bill Belichick leans on his running game, especially if the conditions warrant, and that will keep the clock moving.

These two teams are capable of putting up 30+ points each and ruining everything, but the under is the right side, and if you can get past the fact that overs are “fun”, you’ll see the light.

Next: Patriots over Colts