Jump Shooting Bigs and Offensive Rebounding: Confirming Conventional Wisdom

Jan 14, 2015; Orlando, FL, USA;Orlando Magic forward Channing Frye (8) shoots a three pointer against the Houston Rockets during the second half at Amway Center. Orlando Magic defeated the Houston Rockets 120-113. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

As the concept of the “stretch” big came into vogue over the last decade or so in the NBA, one of the chief arguments against deploying a power forward or center as primarily a jump shooter on offense was the degradation in offensive rebounding that might result. While much of the “live by jumpers” received wisdom is largely hogwash (see the last 4 NBA Champions), this warning largely checks out. The farther from the basket big men play, the less chance they have to snare offensive rebounds. A simple comparison of average FG distance (with end of quarter “heaves” removed) and offensive rebound percentage demonstrates this effect:

However, this does NOT prove the next step often taken in the analysis, that jump shooting bigs are somehow “soft”. There is very little relation between average shooting distance and a big’s ability to “win” contested offensive rebound battles:

The problem is more that if a big man is stationed around the perimeter and especially the three point arc, they have fewer opportunities to even challenge for offensive rebounds, as this last chart shows[1. “Chase % is simply a player’s offensive rebound chances, as defined by SportVU, divided the number of available offensive rebounds while he is on the floor.]:

So wondering why Blake Griffin (career low 6.5% OREB%) or Kevin Love (career low 7.3%) aren’t hitting the boards this year, it’s a lot to do with how far they are playing from the basket. Griffin’s average shot distance[2. per Basketball Reference, which calculates shot distance slightly differently than the SportVU-based models above, but does allow for year-by-year comparison] is 10.5 feet this season, 1.7 feet further than last season while Love’s only two seasons with a sub-10 OREB% are this year and last when his average shot distance was 14.0 and 14.3 fee respectively.