Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook: The Odd Couple
By Matt D'Anna
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Let’s get something out of the way early: this is an article about Kevin Durant. Specifically, where Kevin Durant shoots from. As tempting as it is (in an SEO, Google PageRank, hot-take kind of way), I’m not here to debate the execution of the Oklahoma City Thunder offensive playbook, seemingly a system of mutually assured destruction for two of the best basketball players in the world. Nor do I care to argue for or against Russell Westbrook’s style…of play. Rather, the question is simple:
Does Kevin Durant’s shot activity change when Russell Westbrook is in the lineup?
Yes, yes it does.
How?
Glad you asked. Coming into this season, Kevin Durant has scored like a surgeon; the ball his scalpel, his defender the patient:
Durant’s Hunting Grounds are diverse and precise – so precise they are barely visible in some cases. Generally, he’s most effective from five areas, in order:
- At the rim
- Top of the 3pt arc
- Left 3pt wing
- Left-side midrange, extending from the elbow towards the baseline
- Right 3pt wing
In simple terms, each season you would expect Durant to score most often from those five spots on the floor. I’ve previously attempted change detection with TeamSPACE mapping, where the goal is to measure the increases and decreases of court usage between two seasons. Change detection offers insight into the age-old question: what is the impact of adding/removing a player from a team/lineup? The answer can be visualized, and in this case, here is how Kevin Durant changed last season when Russell Westbrook shared the court with him:
KD’s overall Hunting Grounds for last season are in orange; he occupies a shade under 2% of the court. That 2% aligns very well with Durant’s career shot activity…as expected. However, his Hunting Grounds with Westbrook on the floor — in blue — drop to nearly 1.5% of the court. Some areas reduce (top of the arc and left wing 3pt) and others vanish (the midrange, both corner 3s). Overall, there’s a 46% reduction in his shooting space. Read that again: last season Kevin Durant scored from 46% less of the court when he played alongside Russell Westbrook. Since this seems significant, digging a little deeper highlights some interesting patterns:
Last season roughly one-third of Durant’s scoring occurred when Russ was on the floor, despite almost half of his spatial footprint disappearing. Interestingly, Durant made shots at a lower rate; however, there was a slight uptick in his amount of 3s made. Thus, there is a disproportionate reduction in space, compared to his scoring. Optimistically, Durant improved his already-doctoral precision even more. Pessimistically, Durant was pigeon-holed into certain spots on a crowded court.
This season, the trend is apparently on the rise:
As you can see, KD’s overall Hunting Grounds remain consistent with the activity for his career, with a slight uptick on the right side (on the block, midrange, and corner 3). This season, the changes in Westbrook lineups are even more pronounced, to the tune of 55% of KD’s Hunting Grounds disappearing. KD/Russ lineups are relegating Durant to three areas: at the rim, at the foul line, and the top of the 3pt arc (an odd mix of court centrality). If this activity persists (which is something worth monitoring over the second half of the season), it is concerning; this is not a full appreciation of Durant’s shooting prowess. Further, examining the shot-taking and shot-making volumes:
At first glance, this seems startling compared to last season. Remember — Westbrook was injured for the first part of 2013. More importantly, and similar to last season, the percentages are consistent: roughly 70-75% of Durant’s scoring is coming while Westbrook is in the game, from less than half of the areas he typically makes shots from. Keep in mind that this does not mean he isn’t scoring from anywhere else; rather, his most successful clusters of makes are coming from those areas. And again, this seems less than ideal.
So What?
Simply put: during the past 1.5 seasons, when Kevin Durant is on the court with Russell Westbrook, he is scoring from only a fraction of his preferred shot locations. As I mentioned at the onset, this is not an indictment on Russell Westbrook or Scott Brooks. KD has been hurt and working his way back into regularity, which may help stabilize these Hunting Grounds. Also, there is not necessarily a 1:1 relationship with increased court space and points scored. From a predictability standpoint, however, Durant appears to lose some of his offensive spontaneity. Less spontaneity potentially means (relatively) greater opportunities for the defense to succeed. The Thunder currently sit in 10th place in the uber-competitive Western Conference, with either a 41% or 73% chance of making the playoffs this season (depending your flavor of metrics and/or which part of ESPN you ask). Expecting Durant and Westbrook to continue to play together 75% of the time is entirely reasonable. Thus, getting over the hump and into the Second Season may rest on Durant not changing his shot volume, but getting different looks going forward.
Data and photo support provided courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball-Reference, and data extraordinaire Darryl Blackport.