Luke Gregerson 2015 Projections
By Bill Pivetz
September 6, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics relief pitcher Luke Gregerson (44) delivers a pitch against the Houston Astros during the ninth inning at O.co Coliseum. The Athletics defeated the Astros 4-3. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
The Houston Astros made a lot of moves during the offseason as they try to compete in the American League West. The team added more bullpen help by signing Luke Gregerson to a three-year deal. Entering an already crowded bullpen, can Gregerson step out of the shadows and eclipse all projections?
Gregerson, in 435 games played, recorded just 19 saves. His season-high was nine with the San Diego Padres in 2012e. He has a career 2.75 ERA and 1.078 WHIP. The Astros could use the help in the bullpen.
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The team as a whole recorded 94 saves and a 56.3 conversion rate from 2012-2014, worst in the league. The team currently rosters Chad Qualls, who was their closer last season, Josh Fields and Tony Sipp and recently signed Pat Neshek. With all of those viable arms in the bullpen, Gregerson will need to stand out to win the closer job.
Since entering the league in 2009, Gregerson has made a lot of improvements. He has lowered his walk rate, 1.9 BB/9 in 2014 compared to 3.1 BB/9 in 2011, and decreased the gap in his home/road splits. In 2011, his ERA at home was 4.01 and 1.74 on the road. Three years later, he had a 1.85 ERA at home and 2.43 on the road.
Keeping those numbers closer together will be important to Gregerson’s success. Minute Maid Park in Houston is one of the more favorable parks in the league to hitters, seventh in home runs and 13th in runs scored. He needs to keep command of his pitchers or we could see Gregerson in the seventh instead of the ninth.
ESPN’s fantasy staff ranks Gregerson has the 30th relief pitcher. Rotochamp.com has him at No. 17. Both website assume Gregerson will win the closer role. As the most talented pitcher of the group, Gregerson has a really good shot.
If you are late in your draft, looking for a cheap relief pitcher, Gregerson is a guy to target. He could fit the role of the third, or fourth, relief pitcher on your team. Granted, this is all based on Gregerson becoming the Astros’ closer. If he doesn’t, do not even bother.
Projections: 64 IP, 2.91 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 33 saves. Drafted in Round 22.