2015 NCAA Tournament: Elite Eight Predictions

Mar 26, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish guard/forward Pat Connaughton (24) during the first half against the Wichita State Shockers in the semifinals of the midwest regional of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Quicken Loans Arena. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

We have reached the regional final portion of our round-by-round brackets. My Final Four is still intact, so after a disastrous opening Thursday, I have rebounded quite nicely in the brackets that I can’t change.

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Here are my Elite Eight predictions:

MIDWEST REGION:

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(1)Kentucky vs. (3)Notre Dame at Cleveland, OH:

In what was likely the ugliest game of the tournament, Kentucky doubled up West Virginia. That’s right. They scored exactly twice as many points as the Mountaineers. The Mountaineers ran their mouth and paid the price. This was never a game. Kentucky started the game on a 18-2 run, and West Virginia didn’t hit double digits until six minutes remaining in the first half. They opened the second half just as cold. The Mountaineers shot a disgusting 24% from the field.

Fred VanVleet and Darius Carter did everything they could to keep Wichita State’s season alive, but came up short. Ron Baker was cold (2-10) from the field for the second time in three tournament games, and it hurt the Shockers to not have another outside threat to go with VanVleet. The Shockers were just 3-18 from outside. Notre Dame shot very well. The outside shooting of Darius Jackson and Steve Vasturia helped carry the team. The Irish shot 56% from tk  floor and 47% from three point range. They will need similar success to have any chance of beating Kentucky.

Just a guess, but I’m thinking that the Irish keep their mouths shut leading up to this game. Behind closed doors, they obviously think they can win, but you wont hear a peep about it in the media. Notre Dame matches up pretty well with Kentucky. Kentucky has the better athletes, but Notre Dame has the better guards and better shooters. Kentucky won’t let them shoot 56% again, so the Irish defense needs to figure out a way to take care of Cauley-Stein and Towns in the paint.

Zach Auguste has been an underrated piece of Notre Dame’s run, but the key here will be whether Connaughton is able to help defend on the interior. Notre Dame will need to take good shots and hold their own on the glass to keep up. I think they keep it close, but the lack of size is going to hurt. Pick: Kentucky

Next: West Region

Mar 26, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Wisconsin Badgers forward Sam Dekker (15) celebrates a scoring play with guard Josh Gasser (21) against North Carolina Tar Heels during the first half in the semifinals of the west regional of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Staples Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports

WEST REGION:

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(1)Wisconsin vs. (2)Arizona at Los Angeles, CA:

What a game! The part that surprised me most was North Carolina being able to push around the Badgers in the middle a little. Both teams shot an identical 26-56 from the field. North Carolina actually hit one more three than the Badgers did. Wisconsin’s maturity and methodical pace never wavered, even when the Tarheels tried to speed the game up. Wisconsin never got rattled, and they did a great job of getting to the line. The great passing of Josh Gasser and Bronson Koenig was an underrated part of this win for Wisconsin.

Arizona had all they wanted from Xavier. It was the inability to hit from outside (3-17) that ultimately sunk the Musketeers. Matt Stainbrook played a great game, but he didn’t have much help around him. Arizona was just too big in the middle, and T.J. McConnell was a master conducting the offense. Xavier has nothing to hang their heads about here. Few teams have pushed Arizona this year like they just did.

Chalk held in this bracket, and for the second straight year, Arizona and Wisconsin will meet in the regional final. Once again, Arizona is closer to home than the higher seeded Badgers, but this year the Wildcats will have Brandon Ashley on the court. They also have freshman standout Stanley Johnson. Will it be enough to beat the Badgers this time?

Arizona is one of the few teams that can match the size of Wisconsin. North Carolina matched their size well and nearly beat them. The difference will be that McConnell is arguably better than any of the North Carolina guards.

Wisconsin looks like a better team than the one that made a Final Four trip last year. You can say the same for Arizona. I just think that the versatility of Nigel Hayes and Sam Dekker will give the Wildcats enough problems to propel Wisconsin into another Final Four. Pick: Wisconsin

Next: South Region

Mar 27, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Duke Blue Devils forward Justise Winslow (12) reacts after making a three-point basket against the Utah Utes during the second half in the semifinals of the south regional of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

SOUTH REGION:

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(1)Duke vs. (2)Gonzaga at Houston, TX:

Utah did a great job on Jahlil Okafor, but they couldn’t control both him and Justise Winslow. Winslow had a huge game with 21 points and ten rebounds even though Okafor only managed six points. Tyus Jones hit some key shots in the second half, and sank nine of ten free throws to help the Blue Devils pull away a little bit. Utah dominated the offensive glass, but only made four of 16 three point attempts. Their inability to hit key shots from the perimeter was the undoing for Utah.

Gonzaga made short work of UCLA in the only game of Friday that was not close. The size and shooting ability of the Bulldogs proved to be the difference. Przemek Karnowski terrorized the Bruins on the inside. Neither team shot particularly well. Gonzaga shot “just” 40% from the floor, which is 12% below their season average. They shot a dismal 3-19 from outside, but were able to use Domantas Sabonis and Karnowski to control the game on the interior.

The massive arena in Houston has proven to be difficult for teams to shoot in. Remember that Butler shot just 18% from the floor in the Championship game in this arena in 2011. Both Gonzaga and Duke were below their season averages on the night, and we can probably expect the same on Sunday.

Gonzaga is not as physical as Duke, but they have the size to bother Okafor and Winslow on the interior. Quinn Cook and Tyus Jones are going to be the keys for Duke. It is going to be very difficult for Gonzaga to contain these two, especially with Jones’s nose for the basket. Pick: Duke

Next: East Region

Mar 27, 2015; Syracuse, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Montrezl Harrell (24) reacts after a play during the second half against the North Carolina State Wolfpack in the semifinals of the east regional of the 2015 NCAA Tournament at Carrier Dome. Mandatory Credit: Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports

East Region:

(4)Louisville vs. (7)Michigan State at Syracuse, NY:

Montrezl Harrell, who was largely a non-factor in their game against North Carolina State this year, was a beast tonight. He racked up a game high 24 points, missing only three shots. The Wolfpack guards kept them in the game, but Louisville’s outstanding shooting (50% from the floor) helped them pull away. North Carolina State’s guards kept them in the game, hitting nine three point shots, but they just had no answer for Harrell inside and couldn’t stop Rozier from the outside.

Once again, Oklahoma blows a double digit lead. They did it several times this year (Creighton, Iowa State twice, Kansas State twice, Baylor), and it is even harder to take this time. They outplayed Michigan State for much of the game, but the inability to keep the Spartans off of the offensive glass killed them. Michigan State got way too many second chance points, which is demoralizing after strong defensive stands. The difference here is the Michigan State hit their last six free throws. If you have watched the Spartans at all this year, you know how extremely rare that is this year.

The Spartans are going to have a really hard time containing Montrezl Harrell. Branden Dawson will is a defensive force, but it might take more than just him to stop Harrell. Louisville’s guards are good enough to hold their own against the Spartans, but they are going to need to score like they did against North Carolina State.

This is going to be a close game, which means that Michigan State’s free throw shooting woes are going to be at the forefront again. Memphis made it to the Championship game in 2008 despite shooting in the 60’s from the line. They are the exception, not the rule. Pick: Louisville

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