NC Playoff Previews: Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies
Mar 21, 2015; Memphis, TN, USA; Portland Trail Blazers forward LaMarcus Aldridge (12) handles the ball against Memphis Grizzlies forward Zach Randolph (50) during the game at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports
For each first round series, the staff at Nylon Calculus has put together some visual comparisons of the opposing teams featuring many of the metrics and techniques we’ve been tracking and using all season. This page features charts and visualizations comparing the Portland Trail Blazers and Memphis Grizzlies.
Series Notes
by Justin Willard – @AcrossTheCourt
Blazers rating without Matthews: 2.94
Grizzlies rating with Green: 4.47
I was skeptical of Afflalo’s poor adjusted plus/minus numbers, yet Portland crumbled when he replaced Wesley Matthews, who I also thought was one of the league’s most underrated players and wasn’t much worse than the lauded Klay Thompson. All is not lost for the Blazers, however, because after clinching the silly division seeding, they’ve been able to rest and Batum’s shooting slump is over. (I stated that Batum’s outside shooting slump would dissipate, and it looks like I was right, as Batum shot 27% before the all-star break and 43% after.) A normally functioning Batum helps blunt the loss of Matthews. Unfortunately, the team appears to be injured everywhere, including Batum and the loss of the backup small forward Wright – though this could be counter-balanced by the problems facing the Grizzlies, where Conley and Allen are question marks to play as well.
The Grizzlies are better right now, according to the evidence I’ve seen, but they’re overrated in the media because they have an old-school game. Yet I’ve seen no evidence that a post-up team is more successful in the playoffs. Portland without Matthews isn’t an awful team – remember that down the stretch they were basically resting. They’re just certainly not a powerhouse, and they won’t have homecourt advantage. Luckily for them, Memphis is probably their best match-up because Lillard can be hidden on someone like Tony Allen. Portland without Matthews would likely be destroyed by guards like Paul and Harden. Conley’s very good, but any perimeter guard would rather face him than those MVP candidates. In all likelihood, this will be a closer series than anticipated, and Memphis’ might inside feeds into the only place where Portland has depth: the frontcourt, where the war will be waged.
Odds: Grizzlies 61.3%
(Team ratings are per 100 possessions. The ratings were calculated with ridge regression for better estimates and with one key player in/out of the game. (Playing fewer than 10 minutes counted as being out.) This means every playoff team had two variables. These numbers are used in conjunction with ratings derived from long-term RPM, as seen on fivethirtyeight.com, to calculate the odds.)
Shot Charts
by Austin Clemens – @AustinClemens2
These special editions of Austin’s NBA shot charts show offense by each team over the full season. Like other shot charts they show the volume of shots (dot size) and the FG% of the team from that spot compared to the league average (color – warmer colors are better). As a special feature for these playoff previews, these charts also use SportVU data [is this correct? I always get vantage v sportvu confused] to show how closely shots taken by each team are defended on average. On average, defenders of shots taken near the hoop are about 3 feet away from the offensive player when a shot is taken, whereas defenders of 3-point shots are usually more than 5 feet away from the shooter on average. The large transparent circles behind each dot on the chart have a radius equal to the average distance a defender is from team players when a shot is taken from that particular location. A bigger circle means defenders are farther away and suggests that the offense is generating good looks for its shooters.
Team Offense-Defense Matchups
By Krishna Narsu – @Knarsu3
These charts compare the offensive and defensive efficiency for the two squads over the course of the season. As always, lower efficiency is better for a teams’ defense.
Rotation Comparisons
by Seth Partnow – @SethPartnow & Kevin Ferrigan – @NBACouchSide
Comparisons of regular season production by Daily RAPM Estimate and True Usage components.
TeamSPACE
by Matt D’Anna — @hoop_nerd
TeamSPACE Hunting Grounds map the clusters of repeated success for a group of players. Generally, there are two themes worth observing in any chart: overlap and size. The degree of overlap can indicate either the beauty of a fine-tuned offensive scheme, or general chaos. The ‘good’ overlap is where multiple players systematically hit from the same areas on the court; Golden State, Atlanta, and San Antonio are great examples. The ‘bad’ overlap is evidenced by mis-mashed swaths of color blending together; Boston, and to a lesser extent Cleveland and Memphis, fit this mold. Second, size matters. Typically the more precise the Hunting Grounds (smaller), the better. This type of precision represents a degree of spatial efficiency, freeing up space for other teammates activity. Notable examples include James Harden and Dirk Nowitzki.
This is the most starkly different chart than all the other playoff teams. The 3pt activity is relatively sparse, and the paint is full of color – in the best way. None of this is revolutionary and breaking news, obviously. The midrange is diverse, but precise; thus not problematic. The overlap at the corner 3pt is expected and positive. These Hunting Grounds are the result of a fine-tuned system.
Despite being banged up, Arron Afflalo has been a fair replacement on the offensive side of the ball; the Blazers have maintained Matthews-esque spacing. This season also launches “The LaMarcus Aldridge is Dirk Nowitzki 2.0” argument to forefront – his expansive midrange precision is impressive. I’d expect the Lillard activity to expand in the postseason.
Offensive Styles
by Ian Levy — @HickoryHigh
These charts represent offensive style, not effectiveness. On each axis, distance from the center represents increasing quantity (or efficiency in the case of shot selection). Read more about how they’re constructed here.
These offenses are both fairly conservative and fairly static. Their shot selections are almost identical with a healthy dose of mid-range jumpers from above-average mid-range shooters. Both offenses grind in the post which reduces ball movement. The Trail Blazers play slightly faster and with a little more off-the-ball motion, but there are definitely more similarities here than differences.