Quick Scout: Kentucky’s NBA Exodus

Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

After an incredibly impressive 38-1 season, seven Kentucky players announced last Thursday that they will forgo their collegiate eligibility and enter the 2015 NBA Draft. All seven Wildcats have the potential to be taken on June 25, but it’s unlikely that they will all succeed at the next level (which is perhaps the biggest reason there should never have been a debate about whether or not Kentucky could beat the Sixers).

Kentucky’s 2015 class looks similar to the 2012 class in which six Wildcats were drafted after winning a national championship. This time around, though, John Calipari appears to have produced an even more impressive array of NBA products, so here are some quick thoughts regarding what we can expect from each of them.

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Karl-Anthony Towns will be the first Wildcat taken on draft day. Towns is leaving Lexington after a strong freshman season that saw him enter the conversation–along with Duke’s Jahlil Okafor–to be the top pick in the draft. Throughout the season, Towns showcased his ability to satisfy NBA scouts’ desire for rim protection on defense, turning away 11.5 percent of field goal attempts while on the floor, according to KenPom. What has impressed analysts most, though, has been Towns’ rapid improvement on the offensive end. At 6-foot-11, Towns has the ability to operate in the post where he has a nice baby hook that he used frequently in the Elite Eight against Notre Dame when he scored 25 points on just 13 shots. While he will likely never match Okafor’s vaunted set of post moves, Towns will give NBA teams the ability to spread the floor. At Kentucky, Towns hit 43.1 percent of his 2-point jumpers, according to hoop-math, which will make him dangerous option in pick-and-pop situations.

Towns’ front court mate, Willie Cauley-Stein, will also be a lottery pick. Because he’s headed to the NBA after his junior season, we have a pretty good idea of what kind of player Cauley-Stein will be at the next level. Due to his age, WCS doesn’t have the same ceiling as Towns, but his versatility on the defensive end makes him one of the more intriguing prospects to come from Lexington. Cauley-Stein’s athleticism makes him ideal for defending the pick-and-roll where he should have little trouble keeping up with even the NBA’s best guards. The junior’s limitations come on the offensive end where he lacks an effective arsenal. Sure, Cauley-Stein can dunk with the best of them, but he’ll need to improve his ability to score in the post with some regularity if he wants to become a top-tier NBA player.

The most highly touted perimeter player from Kentucky is 6-foot-6 shooting guard Devin Booker. According to CBS Sports‘ Sam Vecenie, Booker may be the best shooter in the draft. He knocked down 41.1 percent of his 141 3-point attempts this season despite going through a few cold streaks. His ability to find space and get his shot off quickly should allow him to be successful despite his average length. Booker’s downside is that he’s not much of a defender. Wisconsin attacked him in the post where he looked helpless in the Final Four, but Booker should be able to build strength as he grows into his young body. Despite his defensive limitations, Booker figures to go in the lottery come June.

The Wildcats’ final potential lottery pick is fellow freshman Trey Lyles. Lyles may slip to the late teens, but his 6-foot-9 frame gives him the tools to be a good stretch four option at the next level. At Kentucky, though, Calipari often found himself playing the freshman at the small forward slot because of his plethora of big man options. Lyles succeeded in developing some ball-handling skills and connected on 39.2 percent of his 2-point jumpers. To be truly effective offensively, Lyles will need to develop a 3-point shot, much like Serge Ibaka and Chris Bosh have been able to do.

After those four players, there’s a dip in the quality of prospects. The next player off the board figures to be sophomore Dakari Johnson. Johnson appeared to be the player most likely to return to Lexington, but with the No. 1 center in the nation, Skal Labissiere, coming in next fall, it was unlikely the 7-footer was going to see much more playing time. He found himself playing a limited role for Calipari, earning just 16 minutes in the Wildcats’ final two games of the season. If Johnson succeeds at the next level, it will likely be as a backup center who can score a bit with his back to the basket. It’s possible that a team will take Johnson late in the first round and stash him in the D-League to refine his game early in his career.

Two brothers round out Kentucky’s 2015 draft class. Andrew and Aaron Harrison will both get an opportunity with NBA squads, but Andrew is likely to be the more heralded prospect. At 6-foot-6, he has the size to play the point guard position in the NBA and he’s shown a nice ability to get to the rim off the dribble. Andrew had one of the top 100 free throw rates in the NCAA last season and also knocked down 38.3 percent of his 3-pointers. Someone will likely take a flyer on him with a second round pick. His brother, however, will have a more difficult time sticking in the league. Despite hitting multiple clutch shots in last year’s NCAA Tournament, Aaron shot just 31.6 percent on 187 3-point attempts this season. He has size and an ability to guard, but his inability to consistently hit shots may keep him from hearing his name called on draft day.

Whatever the results of June 25th’s draft, John Calipari has once again produced an impressive class of NBA prospects. Four players have the potential to go in the lottery while Johnson and the Harrison twins will have a more difficult time making in the Association. Still, each player has the size to play at the next level. If they can showcase their skills during workouts, they’ll all have a shot to make an NBA roster.