Prematurely Eulogizing the (not yet) Fallen with Distancology
April 20, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; New Orleans Pelicans center Omer Asik (3) shoots the basketball against Golden State Warriors center Andrew Bogut (12) during the first quarter in game two of the first round of the NBA Playoffs at Oracle Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Let Zoolander get you in the right mood for this post.
Five series are two games in all and all of them stand at 2-0. While I previously said that it is too early for panic, for the “-0” teams, now might be the time to do start. Two games is still very much a microscopic sample size, but in five matchups we can look at what is going wrong for those losing side using the distancology method.
Golden State vs New Orleans
Many things have gone right for the Pelicans, but as AD said, ‘An L is an L’. Looking at Golden State’s shot frequency during the Playoffs (lowest row), they actually have gotten the shots they want, with lot of close range shots and non-corner threes – the problem is that they aren’t making their threes at their usual frequency (yet). The Dubs are only 20 of 59 (33.9%) from three, pedestrian in comparison to their 38.9% average during the season. While I would usually put three-point percentage into the category ‘a lot of luck involved‘, the Pelicans seem to defend three-pointers pretty closely (uppermost row in the next figure).
Usually, close three-point defense leads to a lower shot frequency – but the Splash Brothers care not for your tight defense. On the other end of the court, the Pellies are getting and making open threes – they are 16 of 42 (38.1%). The problem for New Orleans is they finishing 10% below league average from 2 to 6 feet (first figure, uppermost row) – which is basically the bread and butter distance if you want to win a basketball game. We will see if either Golden State can regain their three point accuracy or the Pelicans can rectify their problems from point-blank range.
Houston vs Dallas
Good news for Dallas: So far they’ve ttaken away Houston’s corner-threes (second row from the top). Bad news for Dallas: These shots have been replaced by shots at the rim for the Rockets.
Both teams are shooting poorly overall. Dallas has stopped taking AND making three-pointers relative to their season averages (dark red part in the top row), and Playoff Rondo doesn’t seem to be walking through that door. Even making 27 of 28 free throws in Game 2 did not save the Mavs especially with Houston shooting almost twice as many free throws (80 to 45). Dwight Howard himself is 9 of 13 from the free throw line.
I can only hope for a rejuvenated “statement game” from my fellow Deutschman…
The Kings in the North are not having a good time. Essentially from any location they are taking a above league average amount of shots (lowest row) they are at well below league average efficiency. That’s just ouch. By comparison, Washington (upmost row) scored well in Game Two. They were already finishing well from close range percentage in Game One, the Raptors not being known for rim protection and in Game Tow they shot 10 of 21 from three. That’ll do nicely.
Chicago vs Milwaukee
Chicago is doing to Milwaukee what they did to opposing teams all season long – forcing them to take mid-range shots (top row). Milwaukee actually shoots an above average percentage from those distances, but as Byron Scott would[1. Not.] tell you ‘If you make midrange shots with an above average percentage you’re still doing worse than with close range shots or three pointers at a below average percentage.’. Chicago on the other hand (bottom row row) has taken a ton of threes, and made them at an acceptable rate (24 of 65, 36.9%). Pretty sure Byron Scott has an opinion on that as well.
Cleveland vs Boston
Cleveland has had a pretty good shot distribution (lowest row) and is shooting above average from the efficient areas (except from the corner-three, which is an season-long story with Cleveland). Boston (third row from bottom) takes a lot of shots from 12 to 18 feet, which usually is not very helpful for your chances to win the game (I think I said that before…). There is one interesting tidbit if we look at defender distance:
While Boston’s offense (top row) gets a lot of relatively open shots, Cleveland’s shots (lowest row) are in large parts closely defended. I guess having the three best players on the floor and playing against a team without any rim protection helps in terms of finishing against tight defense.
That’s it for now. Hopefully there are some upsets soon, as I don’t want to write any more premature obituaries for a while.