Is Dallas Keuchel on his way to a Cy Young?

Dallas Keuchel is one of the early favorites for the American League Cy Young Award.

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One of the biggest surprises of last season is quickly proving that 2014 was no fluke.

Houston Astros starting pitcher Dallas Keuchel spent most of three years in the minors putting up middling numbers before posting a 5.15 ERA in his first full season in the majors in 2013. Something finally clicked a year later, as Keuchel tossed 200 innings with a 2.92 ERA, putting together one of the best seasons of any pitcher in the American League.

Brilliant campaigns from Corey Kluber, Felix Hernandez and others kept Keuchel from being a serious Cy Young contender. So far this season, Keuchel is not only a contender, but looks like the leader in the Cy Young race entering the end of May.

With another seven shutout innings on Wednesday against the Oakland Athletics, Keuchel now has a 6-0 record with a 1.67 ERA through nine starts. A 2.89 FIP suggests there won’t be some massive regression, either.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that Keuchel’s 2014 season was no fluke. Keuchel’s fastball only sits around 90 miles per hour, but he has a great changeup and plus slider that he can command very, very well.

Keuchel’s success isn’t due to a lot of strikeouts, with a rate hovering between 18 or 19 percent over the past three years. He’s been dominant by allowing one home run so far with an impressive groundball rate of 64 percent.

The stuff and command is there for Keuchel to continue posting a low ERA. Record is also still a factor in the Cy Young voting, and the Astros appear good enough to hang around the playoff race for a while and get Keuchel some wins.

His competition should also be easier this season. Kluber is striking everyone out at the moment, but has been hurt by a terrible defense and has a lot of work to do to catch up. Chris Sale has also fallen behind due to a slow start, partly due to an injury. Max Scherzer is now a contender for the NL Cy Young.

While Keuchel is a clear factor in the Cy Young race, he still can’t be called the favorite. Hernandez is off to a 6-1 start with a 2.30 ERA, is going to generate a lot more strikeouts and has the stuff to dominate for long periods at a time.

Keuchel has been great at avoiding the long ball over the last two seasons, but isn’t going to run a HR/FB rate of 3.7 percent forever. He’s got a nice lead in the Cy Young race, but it’s going to be a couple more months before a clear favorite will emerge.

No matter what happens, it’s amazing that Keuchel is a factor in the Cy Young race after looking like a fringe major leaguer just three seasons ago.

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