Atlanta Hawks Adjusted Odds: The DeMarre Carroll Injury

May 20, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll (5) is helped off the court after an apparent injury as Cleveland Cavaliers forward LeBron James (23) talks with him during the fourth quarter of game one of the Eastern Conference Finals of the NBA Playoffs against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Philips Arena. Cleveland won 97-89. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

In the later stages of Game 1 between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Atlanta Hawks, DeMarre Carroll’s knee buckled while going for a layup. He was in obvious, immediate pain. This is an immense disappointment for the Hawks, whose last visit to the conference finals came in 1970 … when they were in the Western Conference (Yes, this means this is their first visit to the eastern conference finals.). Carroll’s also going into unrestricted free agency, and due to his age – he turns 29 in July – this is probably his last opportunity to get a big contract. This was also only his second full season after breaking out in 2014, and he’s been phenomenal in the playoffs.

Thankfully, reports indicate that DeMarre Caroll suffered a bone bruise from a hyperextension and he’ll be listed as day-to-day. For an example, Marc Gasol suffered a bone bruise on December 5th this season and didn’t miss a game, although he was not very effective in the next game. This is great for the long-term but, short-term, Atlanta just dropped a home game and could be without their best defender for LeBron for a game or more. Let’s look at three difference scenarios based on my own simple numbers to see how Atlanta will fare. I’m using a multi-season RPM you can see at FiveThirtyEight as well as a single team rating number using ridge regression and game-by-game results. The problem is that, obviously, Carroll is a valuable player, but with Sefolosha gone the Hawks would have to rely on significantly worse players and the caliber of player you wouldn’t normally see get extended minutes for a title contender, like Kent Bazemore.

Even if Carroll doesn’t miss a game, Atlanta is not in a good position. My numbers favor the Cavaliers more than most, but they were still favored by most people going into Game 1 and Atlanta lost the first crucial game. The Cavaliers have 85% odds on winning the series and a sweep at this point is as likely as anything.

If Carroll misses one game, then Atlanta loses the advantage of being home. However, the series odds don’t completely change — it’s still a decent team and it’s only one game.

Without DeMarre Carroll for the entire series, the Hawks look even more like long-shots. Cleveland’s not at full strength either, sure, but I have Love’s injury factored in and reduced minutes for Irving. The series has over a one-third chance of ending in a sweep. The biggest question people will have is who will be LeBron’s defender, but Millsap is quick enough and has good size to check him. Atlanta would also miss DeMarre’s offense as he’s a good outside shooter and active all-around.

The Hawks have had success the franchise hasn’t experienced in decades. But it’ll be tough to climb back into the series even if Carroll is back quickly. But the NBA is chaotic, and luck cuts both ways. The good news is that Carroll should be healthy if they make it to the NBA finals — and he’ll be able to garner the contract he deserves after a long, winding career.