Fantasy Football: Melvin Gordon’s X Factor
By Max Dash
May 26, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; (EDITORS NOTE: caption correction) San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17) hands the ball off to running back Melvin Gordon (28) during organized team activities at Charger Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
We all know Melvin Gordon can run the football.
The Chargers drafted Melvin Gordon because he can run the football. If you draft Melvin Gordon, it is because he can run the football.
I’m not going to waste your time talking about how good Melvin Gordon is at running the football. As SNL’s Kyle Mooney would say, “Please just read the stats.”
What I am going to take your time with is the aspect of his game we haven’t seen yet, and could be the difference between him being an RB1 and an RB2.
Third downs.
The consensus on Gordon is that he can’t pass protect and he can’t catch, AKA the two things a running back has to do to stay on the field on the third downs. As good of a runner as Gordon is, his fantasy ceiling is severely capped if he cannot stay on the field in passing situations.
Take Alfred Morris for example. He is a talented, physical runner, but has had to come off the field in passing situations his entire career because of his limitations as a receiver and pass blocker. His rookie year, he was on a good team that could afford to pound the rock, and did not have to come off the field as much due to the fewer passing situations. That year he was on the field for 70.5% of offensive snaps (via Football Outsiders), was third in the league in carries, and finished as a top-five fantasy running back, despite a paltry 16 targets (just one per game for those counting at home).
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These past two seasons, however, his teams were atrocious and thus were forced to abandon the run and play catch-up with the passing game. Consequently, he was only on the field 52.9% (‘13) and 56.5% (‘14) of offensive snaps, and his fantasy points took a big hit.
Now had Morris been better on third downs, he wouldn’t have had to come off the field, and would’ve seen more touches, resulting in more points. If Gordon really is the two-down back he is perceived to be, then he will share Morris’s fate.
Luckily perception, in this case, is not reality.
Next: Gordon's Role in SD's Passing Game
The knocks on Gordon’s receiving and pass protecting abilities are rooted in hindsight rather than projection. Sure Gordon never eclipsed 19 receptions in a season, but according to Chargers head coach Mike McCoy, that’s par for the course up in Madison.
“Number one they want to run the football there,” McCoy said during a press conference following the selection of Gordon. “They’ve done it historically for a number of years.”
Gordon didn’t haul in many passes because he didn’t have many passes to haul in. Wisconsin has always been a power-running team, and last season, only 10 teams had fewer pass attempts per game than the Badgers. McCoy sees more potential for Gordon as a receiver than his college career suggests.
“We’ll give him more opportunities [in the passing game],” McCoy said. “I don’t want to take that away from him. There’s a part in the screen game also that he could fit into—you see him on film run certain screens and certain things like that—so he’s going to be good in the passing game also.”
Chargers fans may remember a guy by the name of LaDainian Tomlinson. In his four years at TCU, Tomlinson only racked up 11, six, 16, and 10 receptions. His first year in San Diego? 59. The next season? 79. Next? 100. Alfred Morris had more catches in his sophomore and senior seasons than Tomlinson, but Tomlinson ended up catching 12 more passes in his rookie year than Morris has in his entire career. Still think Gordon’s 19 catches last year mean anything?
“He can play on all three downs in all situations for us.”
McCoy doesn’t, and he sees a lot more potential for Gordon’s receiving prospects at the next level. At one point in the press conference, he brought up “motioning him out of the backfield to get a mismatch against a linebacker,” and the tape backs up that proposition. Two of ex-Chargers lead back Ryan Mathews’ nine catches from his injury-plagued season last year came on “out” routes that he ran from the slot.
Mandatory Credit: NFL Game Rewind
The first came in week 2 agains the Seahawks. Mathews lined up in the slot, creating a mismatch with the linebacker, like McCoy suggested. Wideout Keenan Allen ran a 10-yard hitch, which forced the corner and safety to play overtop, and created space for Mathews to get open underneath. The result was a 16-yard reception.
The Chargers ran the exact same play in week 12 against the Rams, and Mathews broke it off for a 10-yard gain. Mathews and Gordon are similarly built players with similar play styles, so it is conceivable to see Gordon stepping right into this sort of play with Mathews now in Philly. It wasn’t just Mathews lining up outside either. In just skimming over tape, I counted 11 times that either Branden Oliver, Donald Brown, or Danny Woodhead lined up on the perimeter.
So clearly McCoy is confident in Gordon’s abilities as a pass catcher, and has a track record of getting his backs out in space.
Next: Gordon as a Pass Blocker
May 1, 2015; San Diego, CA, USA; San Diego Chargers first round draft pick Melvin Gordon (C) holds his Chargers jersey next to head coach Mike McCoy (L) and general manager Tom Telesco (R) at Charger Park. Mandatory Credit: Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
Know we know about Gordon’s receiving prospects, but what about pass protection? Chargers GM Tom Telesco offered up his take on that in the press conference.
“He can protect the passer, which I know our coaches are big on, as I am too,” Telesco said. “It’s a big part of our offense to protect Phillip [Rivers] from back there, and he does that extremely well. He’s actually the best pass protecting back in the draft.”
Telesco watched days worth of tape on Gordon before trading up to draft him in the first round, so that ringing endorsement holds a lot of weight. The Chargers wouldn’t have given up extra picks to go up and get a guy they didn’t think could stay on the field and protect their Pro Bowl quarterback. By the end of the presser, McCoy debunked any notion that Gordon was a two-down back.
“He can play on all three downs in all situations for us,” McCoy said.
We’ve seen what Gordon can do on the ground. In November, he broke LaDainian Tomlinson’s NCAA record for rushing yards in a game with 408. If he can do the same to LT’s San Diego receiving numbers, then we’ve got the next Charger fantasy stud on our hands.
For more fantasy football advice, you can follow me on Twitter @FSdash, and be sure to bookmark our fantasy football page to keep up with the latest from Fantasy CPR.