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Cheez-It 355 Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks

Aug 10, 2014; Watkins Glen, NY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver AJ Allmendinger (47) celebrates a win during the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Cheez-It 355 Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks

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MUST SEE: Cheez-It 355 FINAL, Post-Qualifying Picks for DraftKings

Now, let’s look at the Field.

Next: The Field: Qualifying Order with DK Salaries

Aug 10, 2014; Watkins Glen, NY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver AJ Allmendinger (47) during the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

Race Entrants w/ Recalibrated DK Salaries

SEE: Fantasy NASCAR Scoring Changes on DraftKings effective 8/2!

NOTE: Due to DraftKings changing the number to entrants from 5 to 6 but keeping the salary cap at $50,000, the salaries will be lower than in previous contests.

  1. #1 Jamie McMurray, McDonald;s Chevrolet for $7,900
  2. #2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford  for $9,900
  3. #3 Austin Dillon, Dow Chevrolet for $6,600
  4. #4 Kevin Harvick, Budweiser/Jimmy John’s Chevrolet for $10,000
  5. #5 Kasey Kahne, Time Warner Cable Chevrolet for $8,000
  6. #6 Trevor Bayne, AdvoCare Ford Fusion for $6,100
  7. #7 Alex Bowman, TBR Chevrolet for $5,700
  8. #9 Sam Hornish Jr., Medallion Bank Ford for $7,800
  9. #10 Danica Patrick, GoDaddy Chevrolet for $6,600
  10. #11 Denny Hamlin, FedEx Ground Toyota for $7,600
  11. #13 Casey Mears GEICO Chevrolet SS for $6,700
  12. #14 Tony Stewart, Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1 Chevrolet for $8,800
  13. #15 Clint Bowyer, Maxwell House Toyota for $8,300
  14. #16 Greg Biffle, Cheez-It Ford Fusion for $7,400
  15. #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ford Ecoboost Ford Fusion for $6,600
  16. #18 Kyle Busch, M&M’s Crispy Toyota for $10,500
  17. #19 Carl Edwards, Stanley Toyota for $9,200
  18. #20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota for $8,100
  19. #22 Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil Ford for $9,600
  20. #23 J.J. Yeley, Dr. Pepper Toyota for $5,700
  21. #24 Jeff Gordon, Axalta Chevrolet for $8,700
  22. #26 Jeb Burton, Maxim Toyota for $5,700
  23. #27 Paul Menard, Libman/Menards Chevrolet for $7,300
  24. #31 Ryan Newman, Caterpillar Chevrolet for $7,400
  25. #32 Boris Said, Genesee Brewing Company Ford for $6,400
  26. #33 Alex Kennedy, Dream Factory Chevrolet for $5,600
  27. #34 Chris Buescher, Bully Hill Vineyards Ford for $5,600
  28. #35 Cole Whitt, Tweaker Energy Shots Ford for $5,600
  29. #38 David Gilliland, Love’s Travel Stops Ford for $6,000
  30. #40 Landon Cassill, TBA Chevrolet for $5,900
  31. #41 Kurt Busch, Haas Automation Chevrolet for $10,400
  32. #42 Kyle Larson, Target Chevrolet for $7,400
  33. #43 Aric Almirola, Smithfield Ford for $6,800
  34. #46 Michael Annett, Switch Hitch  Chevrolet for $5,800
  35. #47 A.J. Allendinger, Kroger/Bush’s Baked Beans Chevrolet for $10,200
  36. #48 Jimmie Johnson, LOWES Chevrolet for $8,900
  37. #51 Justin Allgaier, Brandt Chevrolet for $6,600
  38. #55 David Ragan, Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota for $6,200
  39. #62 T.J. Bell, Tuctite Hosters Chevrolet for $5,600
  40. #78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Chevrolet for $8,800
  41. #83 Matt DiBenedetto, Burger King Toyota for $5,600
  42. #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., Nationwde Chevrolet for $8,200
  43. #95 Michael McDowell, KLOVE Ford for $5,600
  44. #98 Timmy HIll, Premium Motorsports Ford for $5,600

Next: Cheez-It 355/Watkins Glen Fantasy Strategy

Aug 10, 2014; Watkins Glen, NY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kasey Kahne (5) and driver Jimmie Johnson (48) talk after the track is shut down for a time due to a wreck during the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

Cheez-It 355/Watkins Glen Fantasy Strategy: My race picks will not be released until after the Qualifying session on Saturday, but let’s look at the race in general.

1. This race is on a 7-turn, 2.45-mile road course (110 laps, 220.5 miles) at Watkins Glen.

2. Strongly consider drivers that have a good history on road courses in NASCAR and other racing circuits.

3. DraftKings had been keeping salaries on unique tracks relatively consistent with salaries on conventional racetracks but there have been some adjustments for this race, most notably A.J. Allendinger being bumped up to the 3rd highest salary.

4. While road course history is important, prioritize results at Watkins Glen over Sonoma as they are completely different courses. Watkins Glen is a high-speed road course with 4 less turns than Sonoma. Some drivers have completely different splits at these two tracks.

5. Leaders in average finish among drivers with 6+ starts: 1) A.J. Allmendinger (7.8), Tony Stewart (7.9), Carl Edwards (8.4), Kyle Busch (11.3), and Martin Truex Jr.(12.4).

6. The Cheez-It 355 could turn into a fuel mile strategy race. Look for several teams to short pit at the beginning of the race.

7. There is only one “Road Course Ringer” entered in the race, Boris Said in the #32 car. Said’s best road course finish in the past 8 years is 22nd.

8. Group Qualifying is in effect and will consist of two elimination rounds to determine the starting lineup.

9. Track position is very important here as over one-third (34.4%) of Cup winners started in the front row.

10. The XFinity Race this weekend at The Glen is very similar than the Cup race, only 8 laps shorter. So, look for drivers that are racing in both and that have success on Saturday.

Next: Preliminary Fantasy Picks prior to Qualifying

Aug 10, 2014; Watkins Glen, NY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) during the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports

My Pre-Qualifying Favorites: As we know, qualifying order is extremely important in DraftKings scoring, but here are my favorites to win based solely on historical data. These picks can be used for conventional fantasy NASCAR games where finishing position is all that matters,

#2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford

#47 A.J. Allmendinger, Kroger/Bush’s Baked Beans Chevrolet

#78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Chevrolet

#14 Tony Stewart, Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1 Chevrolet

#42 Kyle Larson, Target Chevrolet

I will release my final DraftKings-centric Picks on Saturday after Qualifying.

Next: General NASCAR Strategy for DraftKings Contests

Aug 2, 2015; Long Pond, PA, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18) makes a pit stop during the Windows 10 400 at Pocono Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O

General DraftKings Strategy: The next thing to consider while filling out your teams is the DraftKings scoring system. DraftKings owners will draft a team of 6 drivers with a $50,000 Salary Cap. Scoring will be based on several factors including a driver’s Finishing Position, Place Differential, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led.

NEW NASCAR SCORING SYSTEM

More from DraftKings

The salaries used are set weekly for each contest before qualifying and practice and are based on the overall strength of each driver/team/car for that particular race. The calculations that DraftKings use to determine drivers’ salaries are based on a driver’s ability to score fantasy points and as such consider all the four aforementioned factors. Since NASCAR is a new Daily Fantasy game, DraftKings has made it easier for players to understand the scoring system by listing a driver’s Fantasy Points Per Race (FPPR) next to a driver’s salary that shows a driver’s performance to date (including 2015 races that did not have DK contests). The following are some of the factors that determine a driver’s salary and something that a fantasy player should look at:

  1. A Driver and/or Team’s current level of speed and performance this season.
  2. A Driver and/or Team’s history at that specific track and race.
  3. A Driver and/or Team’s history at similar tracks and races.

Next: Why Wait Until After Practice/Qualifying to Make Picks?

Aug 2, 2015; Long Pond, PA, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Matt Kenseth (20) celebrates after winning the Windows 10 400 at Pocono Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O

Because the DraftKings salaries are set prior to qualifying and practice, there are many things that can change a driver’s relative fantasy value before the race starts. Some things to consider:

  1. Qualifying and practice speed are a good (but not the only) indicator of a driver’s projected performance and factor largely in a driver’s potential to maximize points in the Finish Position, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led categories.
  2. The DraftKings points system is unique and emphasizes both in-race performance as well as finishing position. So it is paramount to target at least some drivers that start further back in the field yet can compete as a top-performing car. This will get you points in the Place Differential category.

We will be back on Saturday evening with our Windows 10 400 Fantasy Picks!

Next: Cheez-It 355 Final DK Fantasy Picks based on Qualifying Position

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