Aug 10, 2014; Watkins Glen, NY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver AJ Allmendinger (47) celebrates a win during the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Cheez-It 355 Fantasy NASCAR Analysis and Early Picks
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MUST SEE: Cheez-It 355 FINAL, Post-Qualifying Picks for DraftKings
Now, let’s look at the Field.
Next: The Field: Qualifying Order with DK Salaries
Aug 10, 2014; Watkins Glen, NY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver AJ Allmendinger (47) during the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
Race Entrants w/ Recalibrated DK Salaries
SEE: Fantasy NASCAR Scoring Changes on DraftKings effective 8/2!
NOTE: Due to DraftKings changing the number to entrants from 5 to 6 but keeping the salary cap at $50,000, the salaries will be lower than in previous contests.
- #1 Jamie McMurray, McDonald;s Chevrolet for $7,900
- #2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford for $9,900
- #3 Austin Dillon, Dow Chevrolet for $6,600
- #4 Kevin Harvick, Budweiser/Jimmy John’s Chevrolet for $10,000
- #5 Kasey Kahne, Time Warner Cable Chevrolet for $8,000
- #6 Trevor Bayne, AdvoCare Ford Fusion for $6,100
- #7 Alex Bowman, TBR Chevrolet for $5,700
- #9 Sam Hornish Jr., Medallion Bank Ford for $7,800
- #10 Danica Patrick, GoDaddy Chevrolet for $6,600
- #11 Denny Hamlin, FedEx Ground Toyota for $7,600
- #13 Casey Mears GEICO Chevrolet SS for $6,700
- #14 Tony Stewart, Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1 Chevrolet for $8,800
- #15 Clint Bowyer, Maxwell House Toyota for $8,300
- #16 Greg Biffle, Cheez-It Ford Fusion for $7,400
- #17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ford Ecoboost Ford Fusion for $6,600
- #18 Kyle Busch, M&M’s Crispy Toyota for $10,500
- #19 Carl Edwards, Stanley Toyota for $9,200
- #20 Matt Kenseth, Dollar General Toyota for $8,100
- #22 Joey Logano, Shell Pennzoil Ford for $9,600
- #23 J.J. Yeley, Dr. Pepper Toyota for $5,700
- #24 Jeff Gordon, Axalta Chevrolet for $8,700
- #26 Jeb Burton, Maxim Toyota for $5,700
- #27 Paul Menard, Libman/Menards Chevrolet for $7,300
- #31 Ryan Newman, Caterpillar Chevrolet for $7,400
- #32 Boris Said, Genesee Brewing Company Ford for $6,400
- #33 Alex Kennedy, Dream Factory Chevrolet for $5,600
- #34 Chris Buescher, Bully Hill Vineyards Ford for $5,600
- #35 Cole Whitt, Tweaker Energy Shots Ford for $5,600
- #38 David Gilliland, Love’s Travel Stops Ford for $6,000
- #40 Landon Cassill, TBA Chevrolet for $5,900
- #41 Kurt Busch, Haas Automation Chevrolet for $10,400
- #42 Kyle Larson, Target Chevrolet for $7,400
- #43 Aric Almirola, Smithfield Ford for $6,800
- #46 Michael Annett, Switch Hitch Chevrolet for $5,800
- #47 A.J. Allendinger, Kroger/Bush’s Baked Beans Chevrolet for $10,200
- #48 Jimmie Johnson, LOWES Chevrolet for $8,900
- #51 Justin Allgaier, Brandt Chevrolet for $6,600
- #55 David Ragan, Aaron’s Dream Machine Toyota for $6,200
- #62 T.J. Bell, Tuctite Hosters Chevrolet for $5,600
- #78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Chevrolet for $8,800
- #83 Matt DiBenedetto, Burger King Toyota for $5,600
- #88 Dale Earnhardt Jr., Nationwde Chevrolet for $8,200
- #95 Michael McDowell, KLOVE Ford for $5,600
- #98 Timmy HIll, Premium Motorsports Ford for $5,600
Next: Cheez-It 355/Watkins Glen Fantasy Strategy
Aug 10, 2014; Watkins Glen, NY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kasey Kahne (5) and driver Jimmie Johnson (48) talk after the track is shut down for a time due to a wreck during the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports
Cheez-It 355/Watkins Glen Fantasy Strategy: My race picks will not be released until after the Qualifying session on Saturday, but let’s look at the race in general.
1. This race is on a 7-turn, 2.45-mile road course (110 laps, 220.5 miles) at Watkins Glen.
2. Strongly consider drivers that have a good history on road courses in NASCAR and other racing circuits.
3. DraftKings had been keeping salaries on unique tracks relatively consistent with salaries on conventional racetracks but there have been some adjustments for this race, most notably A.J. Allendinger being bumped up to the 3rd highest salary.
4. While road course history is important, prioritize results at Watkins Glen over Sonoma as they are completely different courses. Watkins Glen is a high-speed road course with 4 less turns than Sonoma. Some drivers have completely different splits at these two tracks.
5. Leaders in average finish among drivers with 6+ starts: 1) A.J. Allmendinger (7.8), Tony Stewart (7.9), Carl Edwards (8.4), Kyle Busch (11.3), and Martin Truex Jr.(12.4).
6. The Cheez-It 355 could turn into a fuel mile strategy race. Look for several teams to short pit at the beginning of the race.
7. There is only one “Road Course Ringer” entered in the race, Boris Said in the #32 car. Said’s best road course finish in the past 8 years is 22nd.
8. Group Qualifying is in effect and will consist of two elimination rounds to determine the starting lineup.
9. Track position is very important here as over one-third (34.4%) of Cup winners started in the front row.
10. The XFinity Race this weekend at The Glen is very similar than the Cup race, only 8 laps shorter. So, look for drivers that are racing in both and that have success on Saturday.
Next: Preliminary Fantasy Picks prior to Qualifying
Aug 10, 2014; Watkins Glen, NY, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Brad Keselowski (2) during the Cheez-It 355 at Watkins Glen International. Mandatory Credit: Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports
My Pre-Qualifying Favorites: As we know, qualifying order is extremely important in DraftKings scoring, but here are my favorites to win based solely on historical data. These picks can be used for conventional fantasy NASCAR games where finishing position is all that matters,
#2 Brad Keselowski, Miller Lite Ford
#47 A.J. Allmendinger, Kroger/Bush’s Baked Beans Chevrolet
#78 Martin Truex Jr., Furniture Row Chevrolet
#14 Tony Stewart, Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1 Chevrolet
#42 Kyle Larson, Target Chevrolet
I will release my final DraftKings-centric Picks on Saturday after Qualifying.
Next: General NASCAR Strategy for DraftKings Contests
Aug 2, 2015; Long Pond, PA, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Kyle Busch (18) makes a pit stop during the Windows 10 400 at Pocono Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O
General DraftKings Strategy: The next thing to consider while filling out your teams is the DraftKings scoring system. DraftKings owners will draft a team of 6 drivers with a $50,000 Salary Cap. Scoring will be based on several factors including a driver’s Finishing Position, Place Differential, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led.
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The salaries used are set weekly for each contest before qualifying and practice and are based on the overall strength of each driver/team/car for that particular race. The calculations that DraftKings use to determine drivers’ salaries are based on a driver’s ability to score fantasy points and as such consider all the four aforementioned factors. Since NASCAR is a new Daily Fantasy game, DraftKings has made it easier for players to understand the scoring system by listing a driver’s Fantasy Points Per Race (FPPR) next to a driver’s salary that shows a driver’s performance to date (including 2015 races that did not have DK contests). The following are some of the factors that determine a driver’s salary and something that a fantasy player should look at:
- A Driver and/or Team’s current level of speed and performance this season.
- A Driver and/or Team’s history at that specific track and race.
- A Driver and/or Team’s history at similar tracks and races.
Next: Why Wait Until After Practice/Qualifying to Make Picks?
Aug 2, 2015; Long Pond, PA, USA; NASCAR Sprint Cup Series driver Matt Kenseth (20) celebrates after winning the Windows 10 400 at Pocono Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Matthew O
Because the DraftKings salaries are set prior to qualifying and practice, there are many things that can change a driver’s relative fantasy value before the race starts. Some things to consider:
- Qualifying and practice speed are a good (but not the only) indicator of a driver’s projected performance and factor largely in a driver’s potential to maximize points in the Finish Position, Fastest Laps, and Laps Led categories.
- The DraftKings points system is unique and emphasizes both in-race performance as well as finishing position. So it is paramount to target at least some drivers that start further back in the field yet can compete as a top-performing car. This will get you points in the Place Differential category.
We will be back on Saturday evening with our Windows 10 400 Fantasy Picks!
Next: Cheez-It 355 Final DK Fantasy Picks based on Qualifying Position
