Horseshoes and Shot Clock “Grenades”

Recently, we’ve spent some time looking at the difficulties in late shot clock offense, and especially how a player like James Harden can almost single[1. Left.]-handedly keep an offense afloat by providing a sort of “security blanket” that a team will get a reasonable shot near the end of the 24. One reason scoring in the “red zone[1. A term first coined by the Chicago Bulls during the first Jordan 3-peat if my hazy recollection suffices.]” of the last 5 seconds of the shot is so difficult is there isn’t time to run anything. By that point, a team may well have exhausted the first, second and third options from a set, and the ball is stuck in someone’s hand. With time running out til the possession expires into a turnover.

I’m not sure where I first heard the term, but this is sometimes called a “live grenade” situation, meaning you just have to get the ball out of your hands, towards the rim, somehow. These grim-looking possessions are what is commonly derided as iso-ball or hero ball, commonly perceived to plague the ends of NBA games. Anyone reading this can probably picture this sort of play in their mind’s eye.  A player receives the ball, the clock is winding down and a “guess I have to do it myself” thought bubble almost appears above the player’s head:

Now, “Iso” Joe Johnson makes that shot[1. As he is wont to do, more on that later.], but it can’t be considered any sort of good offense. Still, it’s better than simply handing the ball to the ref and running back on defense. While avoiding this sort of situation is more optimal, you have to play the full 24, and a team is better off the more effective it is in those situations as long as that proficiency doesn’t lull them into thinking those are good possessions. As with an astonishing variety of things in 2014/15, the Warriors were excellent on this front. Defining a “grenade” as a shot taken with under five seconds on the shot clock after the shooter possessed the ball for 5 seconds or more, not only did the Dubs find themselves in this late clock mess with the lowest frequency, they were the most efficient team in the league when someone[2. and not just Steph Curry.

Data from nyloncalculus.silk.co

] had to get their own shot in this fashion:

Data from nyloncalculus.silk.co

Though this entire analysis is colored by small sample sizes[1. 2.9% of all FGAs tracked by SportVU last season fell within this definition of a “grenade,” or just over 5,800 total attempts.], Golden State’s eFG% of 44.2% on grenades compares very favorably to the 36.9% NBA average.

That paltry efficiency is to be expected, considering the kinds of shots grenades usually turn out to be. With all the advantages possessed by the defense, it shouldn’t be a surprise the most common shots are either midrange pullups[1. Defined here as two-pointers off the dribble from 10 feet or more.] or “floaters”[1. Twos off the dribble closer than 10 feet but from farther than 5.]. Almost 2/3rds of all grenades up as one of these difficult, pressured two point shots. The NBA as a whole shot 32.7% on midrange grenades and 35.3% on floaters.

This is an area where individual shot creation and talent can really come to the floor, and save, or at least prop up, an otherwise floundering offense. As was the case in Houston and Cleveland last season when Harden and LeBron James[1. With help from Kyrie Irving and J.R. Smith.] each were stuck with multiple grenades per game, but carried on with credible efficiency. Or it could go the other way, as was the case with the Lakers, Raptors and Pelicans.

The Pelicans are an interesting case. Tyreke Evans was the only player in the league aside from Harden and James with over 100 grenades. Despite his ability to get to the basket[2. He got the rim 42 times on grenades, double the second highest total, as well as having the highest percentage of shots at the rim among players with 40 or more such attempts.] even in these circumstances, Evans was horrifically inefficient, largely because his wonky jumper completely deserted him in these spots[1. He finished reasonably well at the rim, but had 22.1% eFG% on all other grenade shots. Yech.]

Here’s the full list of players with 30 or more grenade attempts last season:

Data from nyloncalculus.silk.co

A few final notes:

• Ty Lawson and Harden were 2nd and 3rd respectively among players with 50 or more grenade attempts. Perhaps more proof for Lawson’s potential to reduce the Rockets’ dependence on Harden.

• Yikes, LaMarcus Aldridge.

• Probably not surprising, given the small sample sizes, but there is likely and enormous amount of year-to-year volatility in the efficiency numbers. Trey Burke was pretty decent as a rookie (41,5% eFG$) in these spots but was dismal as a sophomore.

That last point is crucial. We’ll probably never get to the point of having a good enough sample size to have an idea if we’re seeing real variations in ability, or simply variance, at least in terms of making an missing shots. It will be a little something to watch this coming season, but I suspect the same players will end up in possession of the most live grenades as their teammates look for them to be a hero.