Dolphins at Patriots: Odds, trends and more

The New England Patriots are hoping to run their record to 7-0 on Thursday Night Football against the Miami Dolphins at Gillette Stadium. New England has been very impressive and is coming off a win over the New York Jets on Sunday, putting them two games up in the AFC East.

New England is an 8.5-point favorite going into the primetime showdown, with an over/under set at 51, per OddsShark.

Miami is 3-3, but suddenly on the rise after head coach Joe Philbin was fired and replaced by Dan Campbell on an interim basis. The Dolphins were on a three-game losing streak after their Week 4 loss to the Jets in London, England, causing Philbin to be ousted. Campbell has seemingly turned things around overnight, getting Miami to play with passion. The Dolphins have rolled each of the past two weeks, pounding the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans.

New England remains the class of the AFC thanks to head coach Bill Belichick, quarterback Tom Brady and his litany of weapons. Brady has thrown for 2,054 yards and 16 touchdowns with only one interception. Brady’s main target has been slot receiver Julian Edelman, who has 45 receptions for 503 yards and four touchdowns. The most dangerous weapon remains tight end Rob Gronkowski. The hulking youngster has 34 catches for 533 yards and a team-best six touchdowns.

The trends tell us we should be looking to bet on New England to cover the spread, with the total being OVER. For both the Dolphins and Patriots, the score has gone OVER in four of their last five respective games. New England is also 14-5-2 in its last 21 games at home against the spread, while Miami is 3-8 ATS in its prior 11 contests.