2015-16 NCAA Season Preview: Top 5 NBA Draft Prospects in the Pac 12

With the 2015-16 college basketball season fast approaching, I’m in the midst of a preview series detailing who I believe the best prospects in each major conference are with reasoning that hopefully helps back up those assertions. We’ve looked at the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12. Now, it’s the Pac 12’s turn.

1) Jaylen Brown (SF), California Golden Bears

Cal head coach Cuonzo Martin has brought a lot of talent into the program and assembled one of the best teams in the country on paper in a short amount of time. No player on this season’s roster, however, is more talented than Jaylen Brown. Standing at 6-7 and 222 pounds, Brown has prototypical size for a small forward.

Accompanying Brown’s sheer size is excellent athleticism, which up to this point is what has made him so dominant. He uses his one-two punch of size and athleticism often to muscle his way to the basket on drives before rising and finishing above the rim. Brown dribbles slightly upright, but he has impressive handles and a couple strong go-to moves, namely a hard crossover from his right hand to his left. His quickness, athleticism and size make him a handful to stop in the open court, where he thrives most at this point is his development — something that is not rare for prospects his age.

Brown’s an inconsistent shooter, but he has compact mechanics and is capable of knocking down shots on the perimeter. He’s much better when he can spot up and set his feet. Becoming a more reliable outside shooter would help Brown a lot by making defenders play him tighter, thus enabling him to blow by with a quick first step and penetrate the paint.

His athleticism and instincts help him on the boards, too. He projects to be a plus rebounder for his position because he’s around the rim a lot for a wing, and he’s able to sky for rebounds utilizing his explosiveness and 7-1 wingspan to grab the ball at its high point.

One of the most intriguing things about Brown is his potential as an elite defender. He could develop into a guy who can guard three positions exceptionally well, and his quick hands coupled with length will always make him a menace on that end of the floor.

If the Golden Bears make an NCAA tournament run this season, it will likely be on the shoulders of Brown. Coach Martin better enjoy the small forward while he can, because Brown is more than polished enough to make the leap to the NBA after just one season.

2) Jakob Poeltl (C), Utah Utes

Jakob Poeltl is known primarily for his defense, and for good reason — at 7-1 and 235 pounds, he is able to patrol around the rim and alter shots at a high level. Last season, he averaged an impressive 3.2 blocks per 40 minutes. Poeltl’s wingspan is an underwhelming 7-1 for a guy his size, but he is able to be so effective defending the rim because he positions his body well and has great feel for the game.

Adding to Poeltl’s defensive value is his solid lateral quickness, which enables him to play high on pick-and-rolls and still recover to his man well without letting the defense break down. In the modern NBA, it’s almost become a necessity for bigs to be able to step out and defend some on the perimeter, so Poeltl is positioned well in that regard.

You won’t see Poeltl do much of anything fancy on offense, but he works hard, cleans up misses on the glass and rolls to the rim hard after setting ball screens. Developing a midrange game would help Poeltl a great deal, but he might still be years away from truly feeling comfortable shooting outside the paint.

Still young at 20 years old, Poeltl has plenty of time to advance his offensive skill set, but even if he never develops much on that end, his above-average defense will help him find a role at the next level.

3) Ivan Rabb (PF/C), California Golden Bears

Ivan Rabb should be the thunder to Jaylen Brown’s lightning this season. Rabb will provide plenty of punch down low despite needing to fill out his 6-10, 215 pound frame thanks to a bevy of skill moves at his disposal from 15 feet and in. He lacks consistency on his midrange jumper, but his mechanics look good. If he can knock down jump shots with higher frequency, he could be a nice face-up big man who possesses decent quickness and good footwork, both of which would help him blow by his defender or manoeuvre around his man in a more crafty manner.

Excellent mobility and length (7-2 wingspan and 9-1 standing reach) allow Rabb to compensate for his thin frame on defense. He can contest shots down low and on the perimeter and he should only get better as he gets stronger. Rebounding is a key part of Rabb’s game as well. He gives great effort when chasing after boards, making it tough to keep him from dominating the glass given his advantage in the length department.

4) Tyrone Wallace (PG), California Golden Bears

While Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb are bigger names than Tyrone Wallace, Wallace will be the one running the show for Cal this season. There aren’t many point guards with his size (6-6 and 6-10 wingspan) and he takes full advantage of his unique physical tools by passing over the top of defenses and finishing over the outstretched arms of defenders on drives to the rim.

Wallace isn’t a guy who’s going to burn it around a pick-and-roll and speed into the paint. He employs more of a slower, prodding style, but that allows him to pick defenses apart on drive and kicks. He’s fairly ground bound if he gets all the way to the rim on drives, but he has an excellent floater and soft touch around the rim that mitigates his lack of explosiveness.

He can do a great deal for his team in the pick-and-roll, changing speeds to keep the defense off balance, and you never know when he’s going to throw a nice pass to a teammate for an open bucket once he’s drawn the eyes of defenders to the ball. A better, more consistent jumper would give Wallace more ways to pick apart defenses. As things stand, he’s excellent at poking holes in defenses, but in key situations like the pick-and-roll, he’s not as effective as he could be if he had a better jump shot.

Defensively, Wallace gives solid effort when fighting around ball screens, making the job of his bigs easier, and he’s well versed in help defense principles like digging down, weak side rotation, etc. He’s a heady player on that end of the floor who knows how to position himself and teammates, and that won’t be overlooked by talent evaluators.

Overall, Wallace’s NBA prospects are hard to peg down, but his size enables him to do enough things (rebound, penetrate, defend) that he will at least get a shot at the next level.

5) Gary Payton II (PG), Oregon State Beavers

Much like his father, Gary Payton II brings great tenacity to the defensive end of the floor. At 6-3 and a stout 175 pounds, Payton can accumulate steals and blocks in a hurry because he’s able to physically overwhelm his opponents with his strength and excellent quickness. His athleticism and size allow him to guard three positions well, and that kind of versatility could add a lot of value for an NBA team looking to improve its defensive results.

What is holding Payton back as a prospect is his lackluster offense. He lags behind his peers in that regard, not knowing when to attack and when to pass. His general lack of feel for the progression of things on offense is concerning and he doesn’t do much well offensively to make up for his indecision. He’s a streaky shooter who could stand to get much better both off the dribble and in catch and shoot situations.

The good news for Payton is that if he gets drafted, it will be for his defense and not his offense. He does enough well and has enough versatility on defense for a team to give him a chance at the next level, but he will have to prove that he can at least be around average on offense for him to stick unless he just turns out to be an otherworldly defender.