Who Is Breaking Out? A DRE Check-in

One of the more fun things in the NBA offseason is theorizing which players will make the “leap” in the upcoming year[1. Personally, in Hardwood Paroxysm’s award predictions, I suggested Dion Waiters for Most Improved as I am incredibly biased towards OKC. I don’t care what you say or what numbers you point towards – it’s going to happen.].  About a quarter of the way through the 2015/16 NBA season, some players are rising into new roles while others are plunging into the depths of decline. Twenty-ish games is a small sample size to try make any conclusions on a player, but it can at least suggest which player’s performances we should keep an eye going forward.

Using our trusty Daily RPM Estimate (DRE), I wanted to look at who is playing at a significantly higher level[2. Level is defined as having a higher average DRE score. We all know box score statistics don’t capture everything, but stick with me here]. In a method similar to what I employed here , I used z-scores[3. (2015/16 Avg DRE – 2014/15 Avg Dre) / 2014/15 SD DRE).] to calculate which players are breaking out or falling back based on the change from their performance last season. Simply, I looked at the average DRE of players this year (for players who have played at least 20 games through 12/15/15) and compared it to the average DRE and standard deviation of the same player last year (for players who played at least 58 games). This leaves us with 190 players to look at.

To present the data, I have the cross-year z-score, the 2015-16 average DRE, and the 2015-16 standard deviation DRE.  We can use the standard deviation to see whether the player has consistently improved, or rather is just still carrying the wave of one or two big games.

The “Breakouts” 

Well ahead of everyone, Kent Bazemore has jumped into the Atlanta Hawks starting lineup, shooting a casual 42% from 3. Similarly, Ian Mahinmi, Festus Ezeli, Will Barton, and Jon Leuer are producing at high levels in their first opportunities to be regular producers in big minutes. Some veterans also populate the group, such as with Rajon Rondo’s apparent Sacramento revival.

Looking specifically at younger players improving, Matthew Dellavedova, Shane Larkin, Zach Lavine, and Jerami Grant are all among the top 20.

Interestingly, one name missing is Jeremy Lamb. I assumed he would be high, or at least near the top, yet his z-score comes in at .117. Given that DRE is a minute-weighted statistics, it suggests that Lamb hasn’t really improved but rather is just now getting the opportunities and producing big numbers.

And on the other end of the spectrum, the 10 players with the most negative cross year z-scores:

The “Breakdowns”

The Lawson-Houston experience can only be categorized as a failure so far, and Danny Green’s struggles are documented here.

Again, twenty-ish games cannot define a player nor a season, but consider this your warning: keep an eye on these players.