Sugar Bowl 2016, Oklahoma State vs Ole Miss preview, predictions, odds and live stream info
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Ole Miss Rebels
Two of the most explosive offenses in the nation will clash when the Oklahoma State Cowboys meet the Ole Miss Rebels in the Sugar Bowl on Friday evening at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.
Oklahoma State raced out to a 10-0 start before dropping back-to-back games to Baylor and Oklahoma to close the season. Still, the Cowboys exceeded expectations all season long and will have a chance to pick up a major bowl victory after finishing second in the Big 12.
The Cowboys utilized the dual-quarterback system perfectly, as both Mason Rudolph and J.W. Walsh bring their own set of strengths. Rudolph is questionable due to an ankle injury, so Oklahoma State may need a huge passing game out of Walsh if the former is limited at all.
Ole Miss is headed to the New Year’s Six for the second year in a row after a 9-3 season. The Rebels took down Alabama early in the season and looked to be playoff contenders, but dropped games later to Memphis and Arkansas.
With a roster loaded with talent, the Rebels were one of the most efficient teams in the country on both sides of the ball. Star defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche is suspended for the game, so Ole Miss will be counting on Chad Kelly and the offense to pick up the slack.
The 2016 Sugar Bowl begins at 8:30 PM eastern on New Year’s Day on ESPN and the WatchESPN app. Further details for the game are below:
Date: Friday, January 1, 2016
Start Time: 8:30 PM eastern
Location: New Orleans, LA
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
TV Info: ESPN
Live Stream: WatchESPN
Radio: ESPN Radio, Sirius XM 80
Ticket information: For ticket information click here
Keys to Victory
Both offenses are good enough to enough to score on anyone, and that’s only going to be accelerated with Nkemdiche suspended. The question is going to be which team, if either, can get any defensive stops and generate some turnovers.
On paper, that would appear to favor the Rebels. Ole Miss’ was ranked 19th in the nation in defensive efficiency according to TeamRankings, and the Land Shark defense has done a good job of forcing takeaways over the past few seasons.
Rudolph’s health will be a massive factor for this game, as he is by far the more prolific passer of the quarterback duo. Oklahoma State doesn’t run the ball particularly well and Walsh can’t be expected to do everything. The Cowboys need to connect on a couple of big plays to terrific receiver James Washington to win, which Rudolph is more equipped to do.
Oklahoma State has some talent of its own on the defensive side, as defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah has the ability to wreck any gameplan, both in the pass rush and run defense. The Cowboys have not been as good defensively since fellow defensive lineman Jimmy Bean was lost for the season, so they need someone else on the unit to step up.
Pressuring Kelly and keeping him in the pocket will be key for the Cowboys defense. Oklahoma’s State secondary is going to have trouble covering Laquon Treadwell, so the team can’t afford to have Kelly extending plays with his legs.
One more big factor will be Ole Miss’ motivation for the game. That shouldn’t be a problem with a national spotlight, but the Rebels were clearly not ready to play in the Peach Bowl against TCU with a similarly talented team.
Betting Odds
Point Spread: Ole Miss -7
Moneyline: MISS -290, OKST + 245
O/U: 67.5
Prediction
Even without Nkemdiche, Ole Miss has a defensive advantage that will eventually be too much for Oklahoma State to overcome.
Rudolph may be able to play, but even being limited will make a difference against the stout Ole Miss defense. Without the threat of a running game, the Rebels will be able to focus on the pass, and have the athletes to contain Oklahoma State in space.
Ogbah will be going up against one of the few offensive linemen in the country with the ability to limit him in potential top draft pick Laremy Tunsil. That will give Kelly enough time to pick apart the struggling Oklahoma State secondary, as Treadwell is primed for a bid day.
Oklahoma State can put some points up in the game, but faces too much of a challenge on the defensive end. Ole Miss will learn from its Peach Bowl mistakes and pull away for the victory.
Final Score: Ole Miss 42, Oklahoma State 30.