2016 NFL free agency: Who will Jaye Howard sign with?

Dec 14, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Jaye Howard (96) attempts to intercept the pass for Oakland Raiders running back Latavius Murray (28) in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 14, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Jaye Howard (96) attempts to intercept the pass for Oakland Raiders running back Latavius Murray (28) in the first half at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports /
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Defensive lineman Jaye Howard of the Kansas City Chiefs is in line for a big pay raise in NFL free agency.

The Kansas City Chiefs will have a number of key decisions to make in free agency this season, with stars like Eric Berry, Sean Smith and Derrick Johnson set to hit free agency. Defensive lineman Jaye Howard may not have quite the national name recognition of those players, but he’s a key part of the Chiefs’ defense and is going to get paid this offseason.

Vitals

Age: 27
Notable stat: 5.5 sacks in 2015
All-pro teams: 0
Pro Bowls: 0

Contract comparisons

Howard has always had plenty of potential, and turned that into big production last season. Despite playing on a very talented defensive line, Howard graded out as the best member of the unit by many metrics and showed great versatility by racking up 5.5 sacks while also being a terrific run stopper.

There’s still some untapped potential in Howard’s game and he’s only 27 years old. All of that means that Howard is going to get a big contract in free agency this offseason.

Defensive ends in the 3-4 have been receiving huge contracts in recent years, with six players making over $10 million annually. Howard won’t match that number, but he still should find himself among the top 10 paid players at the position when the offseason is over. A fair comparison could be the four-year, $36 million contract Derek Wolfe signed with the Denver Bronocos in January.

Estimate: 5 years/ $42 million / $18 million guaranteed

Will he stay?

That contract looks like it might be too much for the Chiefs given their other free agents, but Howard’s departure is still far from a certainty.

Kansas City is projected to have about $32 million in cap space this season, which Howard could certainly fit into if the team chooses. The Chiefs will probably try to retain most of their free agents in the secondary, and a short contract for Johnson could also use up some of that space.

The choice for Kansas City may boil down to signing Howard this season or saving that money for a new contract for fellow defensive tackle Dontari Poe, who is set to hit free agency next year, in which case the team may lean towards the latter. Given the depth that Kansas City has on the defensive line and the strength of the defensive tackle position in the 2016 draft, that decision would make some sense.

However, it’s easy to see why the Chiefs would consider prioritizing Howard over some others, and using the franchise tag remains an option. The two sides have been negotiating for months, so there is some mutual interest between Howard and Kansas City.

If he leaves…

Howard is going to test the open market, where he should generate plenty of interest from multiple teams looking to upgrade their defensive line.

The Chicago Bears are going to spend a lot of money to rebuild their defense this offseason, and Howard would be a good fit in their scheme. Another team with a glaring need at defensive tackle is the Washington Redskins, who also be looking to free agency to upgrade in the trenches.