MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks for April 4
Welcome to the Monday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!
Follow me on Twitter @2lockSports and feel free to pose questions each day as you work to construct your DFS roster on FanDuel!
I posted this in my Opening Day article and wanted to ensure readers were aware of these changes on the first large slate.
Before we get into the normal format, I want to take this chance to highlight a key few changes to FanDuel’s MLB scoring since we last saw them.
The point values have increased across the board, so we should expect higher scores for our teams than in past years. The breakout for some key stats is shown below:
- Pitcher: Win (12pts), Strikeout (3), IP(3), ER (-3)
- Hitters: HR(12), Triple (9), Double (6) and Single (3)
One of the biggest changes is that we no longer get penalized for outs made by batters, and with the increased points towards homeruns, targeting power hitters will be more profitable with these new point totals. Targeting all or nothing type hitters in the past could leave you with negative points, but the upside of “chasing the homerun” now is obvious.
Make sure you review the new scoring rules prior to creating your lineup. Way too often, I see gamers jump into games on DFS sites without fully vetting the rules/payouts etc. Do not make that mistake. Now on to the picks…
Next: Top Starting Pitchers
Starting Pitcher
- Clayton Kershaw ($11,000) – If there is one thing yesterday’s slate showed us with the revised scoring, if you want to cash out your starting pitcher must 1) Win and 2) Strike people out. Looking at the odds for today’s games the 4 SP’s with the best odds to win are Zack Grienke, Max Scherzer, Kershaw and Madison Bumgarner. From a strikeout perspective, Kershaw faces off against the Padres who had the 26th most favorable strikeout percentage and Bumgarner gets the Brewers who were 23rd. On FanDuel, these two studs are only $400, so I will pay up for Kershaw tonight as this game has the lowest projected total of any game on the slate. Interestingly on DraftKings, MadBum is price $2,700 cheaper making him an interesting pivot off Kershaw.
- Raisel Iglesias ($6,400) – On the first major slate with so many aces going, it would be wise to pay up for one of the studs but if you are looking for a value option, Iglesias checks many of the boxes. Iglesias gets to face the Phillies at home, where the Reds are not only favored to win but score one of the most projected runs on the day which bodes well for his run support. The Phillies offense is brutal and they strikeout a lot(29th in the league last year), so Iglesias makes for a nice bang for your buck pick. Be aware though, Iglesias may only get to throw 90 pitches which limits his ability to rack up innings and K’s.
Next: Top Hitters
Hitters
- Jay Bruce ($2,700)/Joey Votto ($3,900) – The Reds have the highest projected team total on the board tonight going up against Jeremy Hellickson and the Phillies at home. You will want exposure to this lineup and stacking the two heavy hitting lefties in the middle of the order is a great way to get exposure to the Reds lineup today.
- Chris Owings ($2,100) – The injury to AJ Pollock opens up some interesting plays for the Diamondbacks and I want to keep an eye on Owings as he expects to platoon in CF. Arizona has one of the highest team totals on the board and it is possible Owings will get the start with a lefty on the hill. If Owings gets a favorable lineup spot at this price point, locking him into your 2B slot is a great way to afford the ace pitchers tonight.
- Brandon Crawford ($2,700)/ Hunter Pence ($2,900)/ Denard Span ($3,100) – I expect the Giants stack to be popular tonight as Willy Peralta is one of the worst SP’s on the slate. What I love about this trio of Giants hitters is that the price points are extremely reasonable and you can afford to utilize them AND pay up for a big SP and a few heavy hitter bats.
- Bryce Harper ($4,800) – Looking at the Batter Versus Pitcher splits is one of the favorite ways to quickly identify hitters to target. Harper has hit 3 homeruns in 23 career at bats against Braves starters Julio Teheran so he makes for a great choice for our elite OF target if we chose to save money in other spots. Interestingly, C – Jose Lobaton has 2 career homeruns against Teheran as well in only 13 at bats so if he gets the start at C, is a great punt option at only $2,100.
- Weather – One thing to keep in mind early in the season when building rosters is understanding the weather. The East Coast is cold and there are threats of rains in many spots including Baltimore and New York so monitoring the weather reports and fading those games entirely may be the safest bet with so many favorable spots in better weather for hitters.
Next: 2016 Chicago White Sox Fantasy Preview
Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups! Enjoy the first major slate folks and best of luck!
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