MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks May 1

MLB Picks and Pivots – FanDuel Picks May 1

Welcome to the Sunday edition of Picks & Pivots, a daily fantasy column focused on providing analysis for the upcoming MLB FanDuel slate. The purpose of this column is to first identify key building blocks that can be used for any roster construction and then identify pivot points to help differentiate your lineup in hopes of a big pay day!

FanSided and FantasyCPR have you covered – For additional FanDuel MLB analysis, take a look at my fellow staff writer Matt Rogers FanDuel Economics column or Mike Marteny who provides Draft Kings MLB Picks analysis giving you the most in depth DFS coverage for tonight’s baseball slate.

We get a great all day slate on Sunday starting at 1:10PM EST and concluding with the Sunday Night game at 8:05PM EST with the Yankees & Red Sox.

I will continue to track winning GPP lineups and compare trends over 5 day periods to help us understand what it takes to remain profitable. I HIGHLY recommend each of you do this each morning to look back on the previous night and understand how the winning lineups are constructed in the games you participate in.

The view below tracks GPP entries over various time periods, breaking out key metrics to understand the trends and compositions of GPP winning rosters:

The new FanDuel scoring has officially raised the bar as in order to take down a large field GPP and even to cash out in other games, we are seeing materially higher scores needed. The target value is roughly 10% higher than the season long average forcing us to continuously re-evaluate our decisions. Although the scores have increased, one consistent theme continues and this is the fact that the 7-8k tiered SP continue to find themselves as the pitchers delivering the best value. Friday night it was Drew Smyly and Aaron Sanchez delivering that value and GPP wins but it has been the offenses with the increased points for RBI’s and Runs that is delivering the biggest boost to our scores.

I highly recommend gamers track their game performance across the various types of games they play – GPP’s, Cash, Multipliers etc – as this simple exercise will help teach you more about profitable roster construction than you can imagine.

Now on to the picks…

Next: Top Starting Pitchers

Starting Pitching

Holy Aces Batman! Sunday’s slate is absolutely loaded with top end pitchers with Kershaw, Sale, Syndergaard, Bumgarner, Hamels, Scherzer and Price all on the bump. The best part about a slate like this is that with so many aces on the hill, it dilutes the ownership of the rest so we will likely not see a “chalk play” across the games.

I would not fault anyone who pays up for Clayton Kershaw against the Padres as the matchup is ideal and no pitcher has the ceiling that Kershaw has but at $12,900 it is nearly impossible for Kershaw to return the 7.6x target value (he would need 98 points) so where else can we look?

Rich Hill ($7,700) – So in my opening I spoke about not seeing a chalk pick, but honestly for gamers looking to drop away from the top arms, Hill may end up being one of the highest owned pitchers on the slate. Hill gets a matchup with the struggling Houston Astros who lead the league in strikeouts and although they have a dangerous lineup, have been one of the most disappointing teams on the early season.

The last two games, Hill has put up back to back 57 point games and even at this price point today would be good for 7.4x value, which is exactly where we want to be in GPP’s.

The strikeout upside is there as Hill has two games already this year with double digit strikeouts and the fact this game is at home in the favorable pitching ballpark in Oakland, Hill is my top SP target on Sunday even with all the other top end Arms on the hill. I am happy to take a 4-5k price drop from the top end of the range and lock in a player who can return the same type of outing.

Next: Top Hitters/Stack

Hitters/Stacks

Cubs hitters against Julio Teheran – I mentioned this stack in my Saturday Picks and Pivots Column but with the Saturday rain out we get a chance to come back to this fantastic match up.  Over his career Teheran has struggled against left handed hitters to the tune of a .275 average, and a date at Wrigley may spell big trouble for him on Saturday afternoon. Keep in mind there is steady rain in the early forecast so keep an eye on the weather however the lefty heavy lineup of the Cubs make for a great stack against a very vulnerable pitcher. Anthony Rizzo ($4,700) is the top target but a stack including Ben Zobrist ($3,200), Jason Heyward ($3,400) & Dexter Fowler ($4,100) provide great upside in a perfect lefty/righty matchup against a pitcher who is striking out less than 20% of the batters he faces on the year.

Red Sox Stack versus Nathan Eovaldi – One of the best parts of playing the all day GPP slate on Sunday’s is taking advantage of the reduced ownership in the Sunday night games. Without the ability to lock in lineups ahead of the FanDuel start times, the Sunday night games go wildly underowned and allow us to lock in bats specifically that would otherwise be more widely used. With the Yankees getting a tough matchup against David Price, I will look to pivot to the other side of this matchup and target the Red Sox bats against Eovaldi.

The fact that Eovaldi flirted with a no hitter last time out may keep even more gamers away from the Sox but a matchup at Fenway is ideal for some offensive fireworks and I want to target as many red Sox hitters as I can when building my all day lineups.

Eovaldi has given up a .300 average to LH hitters this season after giving up a .314 average to them last season so this is clearly the place to target. David Ortiz ($3,800), Travis Shaw ($3,100) and Brock Holt ($2.,700) gives us the platoon advantage, and you can easily pay up for Mookie Betts ($4,200) or Xander Bogaerts($4,100) to complete a stack with the savings you get from using Rich Hill as your starting pitcher.

Best of luck tonight gamers! Make sure to review the lineups as they are announced before locking in your lineups!